Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

Why don't you like Yoel Hasson?

[danny]

Why don't you like Yoel Hasson?

He's someone who doesn't seem to have any real principles, he just goes to wherever it's most convenient for him. His idea of winning debates is to spout a lot of demagoguery, and try to do it while shouting the loudest over his opponent, and appear to be really outraged over everything. I strongly dislike hollow party hacks in general, but Hasson makes it worse by being obnoxious about it and constantly changing the party he is being hackish for.

[danny]

Apparently when Trachtenberg was introduced in a campaign rally today, he was met with a chorus of boos. The 2011 protest people aren't forgetting things quickly.

[Hnv1]

Apparently when Trachtenberg was introduced in a campaign rally today, he was met with a chorus of boos. The 2011 protest people aren't forgetting things quickly.

more accurate: Shelly's people didn't like Herzog's pledge to make him treasury sec.

[danny]

Apparently when Trachtenberg was introduced in a campaign rally today, he was met with a chorus of boos. The 2011 protest people aren't forgetting things quickly.

more accurate: Shelly's people didn't like Herzog's pledge to make him treasury sec.

Yes but there is a reason not to want him as treasury minister.
Anyway, Herzog can't keep all of his promises even if he were to become PM unless he gets 40 seats at least, he promised defence to Yadlin, Treasury to Trachtenberg, he would have to give people seats from his party that actually went through a primary to keep them in line. for a party with less than 30 seats, that wouldn't leave enough offices for coalition partners to get over 60. Herzog's promises when it comes to ministers don't really mean much right now.

[MalaspinaGold]

So, the Israeli media has kind of gone wacko with hypothetical merger possibilities. Ones included:

Likud-Bayit Yehudi: the reason they'd do this would be to be certain they'd get the largest number of seats forcing Rivlin to give them the nod. Bennett isn't hot on the idea though, and might ask for a pm rotation in that case.

Hamahane Hatzioni- Yesh Atid: If there's a Bibi/Bennett merger, these two parties would likely merge to boost their chances of being the largest party.

Kulanu-Yesh Atid: Kahlon already shot this down, but if his share of the votes keeps dropping, he may decide to change his mind (for funding purposes if nothing else).

Yachad-Otzma: Yishai with the Kahanists, in order for them to both get above the threshold. Yishai's Rabbis have been in contact with the other side, and negotiations may have started.

[Vosem]

Yesh Atid announced that they will be announcing () their list tomorrow.

So, the Israeli media has kind of gone wacko with hypothetical merger possibilities. Ones included:

Likud-Bayit Yehudi: the reason they'd do this would be to be certain they'd get the largest number of seats forcing Rivlin to give them the nod. Bennett isn't hot on the idea though, and might ask for a pm rotation in that case.

Hamahane Hatzioni- Yesh Atid: If there's a Bibi/Bennett merger, these two parties would likely merge to boost their chances of being the largest party.

Kulanu-Yesh Atid: Kahlon already shot this down, but if his share of the votes keeps dropping, he may decide to change his mind (for funding purposes if nothing else).

Yachad-Otzma: Yishai with the Kahanists, in order for them to both get above the threshold. Yishai's Rabbis have been in contact with the other side, and negotiations may have started.

But only the last one is more than a pipe dream, right? At least, with that one the articles I read sound like "reporting", while the others sound like "speculation".

Why is Kulanu dropping? It's actually been a very consistent trend from the start of the election.

[Famous Mortimer]

Kulanu is dropping because they couldn't get any big names for their list.

That said, Yesh Atid didn't have many big names last time. Yesh Atid also dropped below 10 in most polls before the last election.

I could totally see Kulanu coming in a surprise second. All the frivolous people who voted for YA last time looking for a new home and deciding at the last minute.

[MalaspinaGold]

Kulanu is dropping because they couldn't get any big names for their list.

That said, Yesh Atid didn't have many big names last time. Yesh Atid also dropped below 10 in most polls before the last election.

I could totally see Kulanu coming in a surprise second. All the frivolous people who voted for YA last time looking for a new home and deciding at the last minute.

He got Galant, Oren, and Azaria. Those three are pretty big right there.

[danny]

Kulanu doesn't need big names, Kachlon is a big enough name by himself. unfortunately for him, he isn't charismatic, and isn't a good campaigner. He also doesn't have opinions on a lot of issues, and doesn't do a good job masking that like other politicians. They also don't seem to prepare the candidates for dealing with the media. I just saw an interview with Gallant where he was asked what Kachlon did as minister of welfare, and he answered that he doesn't know the details. That is just bad preparation.

Having said that, Kachlon himself is still popular and so is Cellular reform that he did. So there is always the potential to grow if the party will get its sh**t together.

[MalaspinaGold]

Lapid's list was released:
1) Yair Lapid
2) Shai Piron
3) Yael German
4) Meir Cohen
5) Yaacov Peri
6) Ofer Shelah
7) Haim Yellin- new guy, former head of Eshkol Regional council
Cool Yoel Razvozov
9) Karin Elharar
10) Aliza Lavie
11) Mickey Levy
12) Elazar Stern- former Hatnuah MK
13) Pnina Tamano-Shata
14) Dov Lippman
15) Ruth Calderon

[danny]

former Beitar Jerusalem football star Eli Ohana will join the Jewish Home in one of the reserved spots. Significant because Beitar has a very right wing fan base, traditionally connected with the Likud Which Bennet is now going for.

[Vosem]

former Beitar Jerusalem football star Eli Ohana will join the Jewish Home in one of the reserved spots. Significant because Beitar has a very right wing fan base, traditionally connected with the Likud Which Bennet is now going for.

Is it slot 11 that he's getting? And everyone else is getting bumped down one slot (except Strook and Kalfa, who "can't" be bumped down)?

For the YA list, up to 8 looks very likely, 9-12 possible, and 13 down is doubtful. Three Yesh Atid MKs are not seeking reelection -- Adi Koll (who made a public announcement), but also Rina Frenkel and Shimon Solomon.

So, at this point...it seems like the lists are known, except for the identity of who Netanyahu intends to appoint to slots 11 and 23 in the Likud. That's the final mystery (unless some parties really do choose to suddenly unite over the last few days).

[MalaspinaGold]

former Beitar Jerusalem football star Eli Ohana will join the Jewish Home in one of the reserved spots. Significant because Beitar has a very right wing fan base, traditionally connected with the Likud Which Bennet is now going for.

Is it slot 11 that he's getting? And everyone else is getting bumped down one slot (except Strook and Kalfa, who "can't" be bumped down)?

For the YA list, up to 8 looks very likely, 9-12 possible, and 13 down is doubtful. Three Yesh Atid MKs are not seeking reelection -- Adi Koll (who made a public announcement), but also Rina Frenkel and Shimon Solomon.

So, at this point...it seems like the lists are known, except for the identity of who Netanyahu intends to appoint to slots 11 and 23 in the Likud. That's the final mystery (unless some parties really do choose to suddenly unite over the last few days).

Likud is considering the horrid Jpost columnist Caroline Glick for #11.

Don't forget the Haredi parties btw- they've yet to release their lists.

[danny]

And the Dichter-Hotovely saga is still ongoing.

[Hnv1]

Bennet getting fire from the base for adding Ohana (who supported the disengagement).

Eyal Ben Reuven in a sharp move after his candidancy in Meretz did not materialized had been granted the 24th spot in Labour by Livni.

[danny]

Bennet getting fire from the base for adding Ohana (who supported the disengagement).

Eyal Ben Reuven in a sharp move after his candidancy in Meretz did not materialized had been granted the 24th spot in Labour by Livni.

Kalfa has already defected to Yishai's party.

[Hnv1]

Bennet getting fire from the base for adding Ohana (who supported the disengagement).

Eyal Ben Reuven in a sharp move after his candidancy in Meretz did not materialized had been granted the 24th spot in Labour by Livni.

Kalfa has already defected to Yishai's party.

Rather Historic event then! It's the first time for at least 50 years I think the JH (in its forms) will not have a Zvulun!

[Comrade Funk]

Two new polls

Channel 2

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Panels/Knesset Channe

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[Famous Mortimer]

Bennet getting fire from the base for adding Ohana (who supported the disengagement).

Eyal Ben Reuven in a sharp move after his candidancy in Meretz did not materialized had been granted the 24th spot in Labour by Livni.

Kalfa has already defected to Yishai's party.

For those who don't know, Kalfa was a settler leader in Gaza, that's why a pro-disengagement candidate is so offensive to him.

[Famous Mortimer]

Arab list will be called Wamab (Spark).

Also, according to Arabic Wikipedia, Ayman Odeh, the leader of the list and of Hadash is a Muslim, not a Christian as previously speculated.

Aida Touma-Sliman, the number 2 on the Hadash list and number 5 on Wamab list is from a Christian family though. I don't know if she's practicing though, she's a member of the Communist Party unlike the previous Hadash Christian Hana Sweid, who is an independent.

[Vosem]

Livni has decided to replace Shlomo Molla on her list with Eyal Ben Reuven, who crossed over from Meretz, which means there may well be no Ethiopian immigrant in the next Knesset, since Tsega Melaku, who was given the 3rd spot in Kulanu, was apparently disqualified from running. (Molla, who was to be given slot 25 on the Zionist Camp, would have been a 50/50 shot to enter the Knesset). Not counting Melaku, the two likeliest candidates are now Pnina Tamano-Shata (13th for Yesh Atid; probably not, but possible) and Nagosa Avraham (27th for Likud; probably not, but possible). Molla reacted with very harsh words for Livni and an almost-but-not-quite endorsement of Kulanu.

In other news, Mofaz announced that he won't be seeking reelection in 2015, and that he's stepping down from the Kadima leadership. The new Kadima leader, a Druze named Akram Hasson who briefly served in the Knesset from 2012-2013, is apparently in negotiations with Kahlon about a joint list.

And, yeah, there was a great deal of drama in JH, with Eli Ohana being given a spot in the top 10 (I think he gets slot 10 on the JH list, so slot 12 on the joint list with Tkuma, but I'm not sure about this) and the reserved slot for woman being given to Anat Roth, bumping down Yehudit Shilat. There was a great deal of anger about this from certain quarters, and Zevulun Kalfa, who was 4th on the Tkuma list (18th on the overall list) resigned his spot; he will be replaced in the 18th spot (a reach, but not impossible) by Tkuma party director Nachi Eyal. It is rumored that Kalfa will join Yishai's list.

Slot 12 on the Wamab list, which was reserved for a member of Ta'al (so, someone picked by Ahmad Tibi) will go to human-rights lawyer Osama Sa'adi, who is also Ta'al's brother-in-law

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So Kadima is effectively a Druze vote bank now? Remarkable.

[Famous Mortimer]

So officially Eyal Ben Reuven is a member of Hatnuah? From Meretz to Hatnuah...

[Vosem]

So Kadima is effectively a Druze vote bank now? Remarkable.

Funnily enough, Kadima is apparently the first-ever majority-Jewish party with Knesset representation to be led by an Arab, even if that is right before its untimely doom.

...it's not really a Druze party of any kind, but putting Hasson in charge is very probably a gimmick to try to increase Druze support for the party. It might've worked with the old threshold, but I doubt they can get to 3.25% (though it seems Hasson may be negotiating with Kachlon; he might still be worth 1.5%-2% or so, which is not worthless).

The top four of the list (it goes on for a while, but everyone after #4 is hopelessly obscure and has no chance anyway):
1. Fmr MK Akram Hasson (2012-2013; Druze)
2. Fmr MK Doron Avital (2011-2013)
3. Fmr Givatayim Mayor Reuven Ben-Shahar
4. MK Yuval Zellner (2012-2013; 2014-present)

So officially Eyal Ben Reuven is a member of Hatnuah? From Meretz to Hatnuah...

I think Ben-Reuven is more concerned with his political career than his ideological beliefs.