Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Hnv1]

How likely is it that a "unity government" with Likud and Labor will be formed, Hnv1? Bibi would of course prefer a right-wing government. It depends on Lieberman and Kachlon. But wouldn't that be a nightmare scenario for Labor?

He would prefer a unity government. Bibi has shown that he doesn't want to be the most the extreme part of his coalition,  he'll definitely try to avoid an all right wing coalition.

Hmm. Interesting thought. It must've been really annoying for him that Uri Ariel used to plan new houses in J&S while he was negotiating with Abu Mazen. But overall, he's had more trouble in the last government - with Yesh Atid and with Livni - than in the government before, I thought.

For Bibi it wouldn't even be that bad, but a unity government might destroy Likud's popularity, although it will probably destroy Labor's popularity even more. That would almost certainly mean new elections within two years.

Why do you think a unity government would destroy Likud's popularity? It was in a unity government with Yesh Atid and it had no effect. It was in a unity government with Mofaz's Kadima and it had no effect. It was in a unity government with Barak's Labor and it had no effect. It was in a unity government under Sharon with Ben-Eliezer's Labor and it had no effect. It's been in a government with a party to its left more often than it's not been.

The last government was not a unity government, a unity government means some sort of power share. Bibi has all to gain from this, it will crush Herzog's public image and block this annoying pretender to the crown (Bennet) that will an all right coalition will demand the MoD and will gain a strong push for PMhood in the next election (Herzog after a unity government will be crushed)

[Gali]

Herzog is in a pretty rough spot now. Liberman said he won't sit in a centre-left government hence trying to force some sort of unity government with Likud-Labour. Kachlon may dislike (like everybody who ever worked with him) Bibi but he and his base are essentialy Likud through and through. On top of that Shas\UTJ won't sit with Lapid unless the criminal sanctions of the draft law are lifted.

A Labour led centre-left-Haredi government is unlikelier than ever. Oh, and with their attempt to attract soft-right voters they are going to support Zoabi's disqualification (which the SCoJ will undo) and thus pissing off the joint Arab party.

Not the best of week for Labour. I assume they new tactic will be drain as much votes as the can from YA and Meretz so they can come to Bibi stronger when discussing a unity government.

As always the two parties least likely to get my vote are Likud and Labour

Completely agree with you .
I am seriously worried about Meretz .
They are bleeding voters to Avoda on the principal of anyone but Bibi and to Hadash due to Avraham Burg's commitment .
Supporting  Zoabi's disqualification was a huge mistake , one which will cost them .

[MalaspinaGold]

1. Meretz opposed Zoabi's disqualification
2. I doubt the voters who will move from Wamab to Hadash is anywhere near as high as those who move the other way based on the Joint List + Frej's placement as #3 plus the overall leftist lean of this list as a whole.

[MalaspinaGold]

Haaretz just published a very nice piece on Russian Jewry and their effect on Israel, with an emphasis on politics and culture.
http://www.haaretz.com/st/c/prod/eng/25yrs_russ_img/?utm_source=Facebook&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_medium=Social
Would be cool to hear ag and vosem's reactions, considering you guys are Russian-speaking Jews yourselves (I don't count because only my mom's Russian speaking, and my Russian's even worse than my Hebrew.)

Yes only tangentially related to the election, but as someone said earlier, it will probably be a dull thread until March.

[Gali]

1. Meretz opposed Zoabi's disqualification
2. I doubt the voters who will move from Wamab to Hadash is anywhere near as high as those who move the other way based on the Joint List + Frej's placement as #3 plus the overall leftist lean of this list as a whole.

I know that I was referring to Avoda not Meretz and was replying to Hnv1 's comment .
Voters are moving from Meretz to Hadash and to Avoda, I know because I am very leftist leaning and a Meretz voter.

[MalaspinaGold]

1. Meretz opposed Zoabi's disqualification
2. I doubt the voters who will move from Wamab to Hadash is anywhere near as high as those who move the other way based on the Joint List + Frej's placement as #3 plus the overall leftist lean of this list as a whole.

I know that I was referring to Avoda not Meretz and was replying to Hnv1 's comment .
Voters are moving from Meretz to Hadash and to Avoda, I know because I am very leftist leaning and a Meretz voter.

Sorry, but I still don't quite see how Meretz voters will gravitate to Hadash.
Meretz hasn't done anything to anger left-wingers as far as I know. In the meantime, it has selected Mossi Raz and Gaby Lasky, who are both at the left end of the party, to spots that might result in Knesset seats (though for Lasky it is increasingly unlikely). Frej will be #3 on the list. Considering that Hadash doesn't exist for the time being, and Khenin #8 on the Joint List, would it not be likely that soft Hadash voters will be attracted towards Meretz?

Besides Burg endorsing Hadash (which he did last time IIRC), what else would tilt things Hadash's way?

Not saying you're wrong, but could you provide more reasons?

[Hnv1]

All of Hadash Jewish voters add up to half a seat and if anything to will tilt meretz due to the union. BTW Burg also said he's against the union, still memeber of Hadash but against the union.

[Gali]

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Burg is the leader of the post zionist movement and its growing and looking for a home it can call its own .

[Gali]

All of Hadash Jewish voters add up to half a seat and if anything to will tilt meretz due to the union. BTW Burg also said he's against the union, still memeber of Hadash but against the union.

Forget about Burg and Hadash then .
Have you seen the latest polls ?
We will be lucky to cross the threshhold .

[Hnv1]

All of Hadash Jewish voters add up to half a seat and if anything to will tilt meretz due to the union. BTW Burg also said he's against the union, still memeber of Hadash but against the union.

Forget about Burg and Hadash then .
Have you seen the latest polls ?
We will be lucky to cross the threshhold .

A. Polls in Israel are sh**te.
B. Meretz bottom will be 5, all polls give them between 4-6 and I think they'll stay there. getting lower than 3.25% is unlikely
C. Burg isn't a leader of anything and post-zionists are usually very free minded (the idea matters not the person) and hardly vote Meretz anyway. If anything I think we'll see a small trend from Hadash to Meretz from Jews who don't like the nationalistic voice and Arabs who don't like the strong seperatism it brings.

[Famous Mortimer]

Who would post-Zionists normally vote for if not Meretz?

[Hnv1]

Who would post-Zionists normally vote for if not Meretz?

The socialist oriented would vote Hadash, the more liberal one-statist 'we don't give a toss about economy" would vote Balad, a smaller portion (hoping for a growing one) would vote Meretz. Hadash pick more of those voters also because they have a jewish base with more voice, Balad hardly has any Jewish oriented party body.
I believe that with time we'll see that portion growing and in a future a split between the right and left section of the party.

[ag]

Does Balad even try among the Jews, post-Zionist or not? Have you ever seen a Jew who voted for them?

[Hnv1]

Does Balad even try among the Jews, post-Zionist or not? Have you ever seen a Jew who voted for them?

Yes I know a few that do vote Balad, very fringe though.
Are Balad even trying? not hard that's sure, they have 'Bamat Balad' which is the only way they address jewish voters (in Hebrew) but can't say they're really trying to boost it. Hadash classical left view is more appealing than Pan-Arabism (if Balad actually stood up for what they say they do I guess they will be more popular). There are more NGO and cultural attempts like 'Zochrot' NGO and this book publisher I forgot its name which is identified with them. 
Balad's demographic of voters is correlating with Hadash's one so most of their energy goes on that frontier.

[Hnv1]

Let's get back to news not predictions:

Bibi states that he will not seek a unity government nor will he invite Herzog\Livni in. He did say JH are sure in partners. This move is more in the realm of getting more voters from JH\Liberman.

Former Minister Pyron states YA will favor Herzog over Bibi for PM

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Let's get back to news not predictions:

Bibi states that he will not seek a unity government nor will he invite Herzog\Livni in. He did say JH are sure in partners. This move is more in the realm of getting more voters from JH\Liberman.

Former Minister Pyron states YA will favor Herzog over Bibi for PM

Apparently UTJ said today they will only sit with the Right.

The polls are looking really tight when it comes to the two blocs, creating the worrying situation that Bibi might only be able to form a coalition with the four seats potentially provided by Yachad.

[danny]

Let's get back to news not predictions:

Bibi states that he will not seek a unity government nor will he invite Herzog\Livni in. He did say JH are sure in partners. This move is more in the realm of getting more voters from JH\Liberman.

Former Minister Pyron states YA will favor Herzog over Bibi for PM

Apparently UTJ said today they will only sit with the Right.

The polls are looking really tight when it comes to the two blocs, creating the worrying situation that Bibi might only be able to form a coalition with the four seats potentially provided by Yachad.

There aren't really two blocs, and Bibi could form a coalition with any party except Meretz and the Arabs (and Marzel). don't believe everything politicians say regarding future coalitions, Livni promised not to enter Bibi's coalition last time, but ended the first one to join it. 

[DavidB.]

Coalition formation will be hard. According to Knessetjeremy, Lieberman and Deri have also ruled out a Herzog coalition, leading him to the conclusion that "the dream of a Herzog government without Likud is over."

However, now Bibi has outruled a coalition with Herzog, he will definitely need all right-wing parties. My guess is that Kulanu will eventually go with Bibi and Kachlon will get a really good place in the government. Marzel will of course not cooperate, but he'll split from Yachad anyway, making Yachad coalition material. So the next government's majority will probably consist of Likud, JH, YB, UTJ, Shas, Kulanu and Yachad. Will be interesting to see Deri and Yishai cooperating...

[Famous Mortimer]

Deri ruled out Herzog? That's just weird.

[danny]

Neither of them really ruled out a Herzog coalition in the sense that they wouldn't agree to sit in one, it was more in the sense that they don't think it is realistic and won't happen anyway.

[Comrade Funk]

Two new polls.

Feb 9th (Times of Israel)

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Feb 8th (Channel 10)

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[danny]

The Times of Israel poll was done a week ago, but was only published now.

[DL]

Two new polls.

Left/Center (Labor+Yesh Atid+Kulanu+Meretz) = 48
Right-Wing (Likud+Jewish Home+Yisrael Beitenu) = 42
Religious (UTJ+Shas+Racists) = 17
Arabs = 13

[/quote]

Isn't Jewish Home part of the "Religious" block as opposed to the "Right-Wing" block since they are basically a new name for the national Religious Party?

[danny]

Two new polls.

Left/Center (Labor+Yesh Atid+Kulanu+Meretz) = 48
Right-Wing (Likud+Jewish Home+Yisrael Beitenu) = 42
Religious (UTJ+Shas+Racists) = 17
Arabs = 13

Isn't Jewish Home part of the "Religious" block as opposed to the "Right-Wing" block since they are basically a new name for the national Religious Party?

Blocs are an entirely subjective matter anyway you can do what you like, and people have many definitions.

National Religious Party used to be a religious party allied with Mapai, but over the decades they moved to become a distinctly right wing party. The name change and union with Tkuma cemented this.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why do people have so much trouble with this? "BLOCS" ARE NOT A REAL THING. THEY ARE NOT OFFICIAL.