Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Oak Hills]

So an unfortunate episode occurred yesterday:
Yesterday there was talk that ZU and Meretz were preparing to annul their surplus vote agreement. If it happened, ZU would have formed a new one with Yesh Atid, and Meretz will form one with the Joint List. Yesh Atid, ZU, Meretz support the idea, as well as Hadash. However Raam and Balad opposed it because they didn't want to be associated with a Zionist party. And Odeh was not able to drum up support within the list, so it didn't happen. If the right gets an extra seat this year, it may well be due to Raam and Balad's intransigence.

Since I don't know much about it other than what was reported n Haaretz, I was wondering if our resident Meretz activist, hnv1, could weigh in.

What is a "surplus vote agreement"?

[ag]

This is probably wishful thinking but is there any chance that if the Joint List collapses, Odeh decides to join forces with Meretz? In all honesty I don't know what separates the two.

None whatsoever. They are very far apart.

Joint list will not collapse. Of course, it is quite likely that post-election the constituent parties resume their independent existence. But "joining" in any sense with Meretz is off limits. Except, possibly, temporarily for the next election - and then, again, for the same shotgun threshold reason as they are now joining with the Arabs.

[MalaspinaGold]

So an unfortunate episode occurred yesterday:
Yesterday there was talk that ZU and Meretz were preparing to annul their surplus vote agreement. If it happened, ZU would have formed a new one with Yesh Atid, and Meretz will form one with the Joint List. Yesh Atid, ZU, Meretz support the idea, as well as Hadash. However Raam and Balad opposed it because they didn't want to be associated with a Zionist party. And Odeh was not able to drum up support within the list, so it didn't happen. If the right gets an extra seat this year, it may well be due to Raam and Balad's intransigence.

Since I don't know much about it other than what was reported n Haaretz, I was wondering if our resident Meretz activist, hnv1, could weigh in.

What is a "surplus vote agreement"?

Two parties can sign an agreement so that after votes are allocated, their combined surplus votes are pooled, and if the total is greater than the number needed for one seat, that seat will be allocated to the party with more surplus votes within the agreement.

EX: if parties A and B are in a surplus vote agreement, and party A gets 170,000 votes, party B gets 160,000 votes, and the cutoff for a seat is 30,000 votes, party A will receive 5 seats, party B will receive 5 seats, the remainder (20,000 from A and 10,000 from B) will be combined resulting in an extra seat for party A.  Otherwise all 30,000 votes would be wasted.

This is probably wishful thinking but is there any chance that if the Joint List collapses, Odeh decides to join forces with Meretz? In all honesty I don't know what separates the two.

None whatsoever. They are very far apart.

Joint list will not collapse. Of course, it is quite likely that post-election the constituent parties resume their independent existence. But "joining" in any sense with Meretz is off limits. Except, possibly, temporarily for the next election - and then, again, for the same shotgun threshold reason as they are now joining with the Arabs.

I didn't make up this idea by myself. Noam Sheizaf was the one advocating for it (though he advocated Meretz joining the Joint List- that's not going to happen). But it would be a logical first step for Odeh to gain greater legitimacy- cut loose from the Islamists and the Nationalists and ally with another leftist party. Considering that he's trying to appeal to Jews while Meretz is trying to appeal to Arabs, it makes sense, depending on his end goal.

[Hnv1]

Noam Sheizaf is a good chap but like most of mekomit writers sometimes a bit delusional.
Meretz as a whole cannot join in with hadash, if anything in the form of this scenario happens I assume it will be that most of Meretz will be somewhat forced to join Labour and the left section will be forced to join force with Hadash. Very unlikely though

[Hnv1]

Netanyahu takes back the support he expressed in the Barr Ilan speech (09) in the 2 state solution and claims there will be no more withdrawals. The Likud is yet to publish a platform though.

It will be interesting to see if there will be a strong international backlash to this in the coming week, how will it effect the voter (I assume some more right wing Kachlon voters will be inclined to go home to the Likud), and whether Herzog will have a solid saying to counter him and maybe draw some more left Lapid voters.

[Famous Mortimer]

What separates Meretz and Hadash is totally symbolic but both sides take their symbols very seriously.

[Hnv1]

What separates Meretz and Hadash is totally symbolic but both sides take their symbols very seriously.

As most human beings do?

I would say there are quite big difference but more between the Meretz voter and the Hadash voter.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Polling by Arutz Sheva from the 8th of March has:

Likud (Netanyahu) at 26 seats
Zionist Union (Herzog) at 21 seats
Jewish Home (Bennet) at 13 seats
Yesh Atid (Lapid) at 12 seats
Joint List (Odeh) at 12 seats
Kulanu (Kachlon) at 8 seats
Shas (Deri) at 8 seats
UTJ (Litzman) at 8 seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) at 7 seats
Meretz (Gal-On) at 5 seats
Yachad (Yishai) at 0 seats


I'd obviously take this with a grain of salt as Arutz Sheva is a right-leaning media source.

[danny]

Polling by Arutz Sheva from the 8th of March has:

Likud (Netanyahu) at 26 seats
Zionist Union (Herzog) at 21 seats
Jewish Home (Bennet) at 13 seats
Yesh Atid (Lapid) at 12 seats
Joint List (Odeh) at 12 seats
Kulanu (Kachlon) at 8 seats
Shas (Deri) at 8 seats
UTJ (Litzman) at 8 seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) at 7 seats
Meretz (Gal-On) at 5 seats
Yachad (Yishai) at 0 seats


I'd obviously take this with a grain of salt as Arutz Sheva is a right-leaning media source.

This poll wasn't done by Arutz Sheva, it was published by i24news, which is not a right wing source. The problem though, is the company actually doing the poll, Geocartograhy, which is trash and regularly gets ridiculous results. you should always ignore Geocartography polls.

[ag]

Polling by Arutz Sheva from the 8th of March has:

Likud (Netanyahu) at 26 seats
Zionist Union (Herzog) at 21 seats
Jewish Home (Bennet) at 13 seats
Yesh Atid (Lapid) at 12 seats
Joint List (Odeh) at 12 seats
Kulanu (Kachlon) at 8 seats
Shas (Deri) at 8 seats
UTJ (Litzman) at 8 seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) at 7 seats
Meretz (Gal-On) at 5 seats
Yachad (Yishai) at 0 seats


I'd obviously take this with a grain of salt as Arutz Sheva is a right-leaning media source.

This poll wasn't done by Arutz Sheva, it was published by i24news, which is not a right wing source. The problem though, is the company actually doing the poll, Geocartograhy, which is trash and regularly gets ridiculous results. you should always ignore Geocartography polls.

During this cycle Geocartography has consistently had the highest numbers for Likud and the lowest for Labor. So, there is an obvious pollster effect here: they may be right of course, but they are an outlier for the moment.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Polling by Arutz Sheva from the 8th of March has:

Likud (Netanyahu) at 26 seats
Zionist Union (Herzog) at 21 seats
Jewish Home (Bennet) at 13 seats
Yesh Atid (Lapid) at 12 seats
Joint List (Odeh) at 12 seats
Kulanu (Kachlon) at 8 seats
Shas (Deri) at 8 seats
UTJ (Litzman) at 8 seats
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) at 7 seats
Meretz (Gal-On) at 5 seats
Yachad (Yishai) at 0 seats


I'd obviously take this with a grain of salt as Arutz Sheva is a right-leaning media source.

This poll wasn't done by Arutz Sheva, it was published by i24news, which is not a right wing source. The problem though, is the company actually doing the poll, Geocartograhy, which is trash and regularly gets ridiculous results. you should always ignore Geocartography polls.

Thank you for letting me know, I apologize as I am not as familiar with polling agencies in Israel, thank you for informing me about it.

[The Mikado]

It seems like most of the differences between that poll and the others can be attributed to Yachad not hitting the threshold and Likud benefitting from that.

[danny]

An example of Geocartography silliness is that they have a poll with the least seats of all for UTJ (4) and the most (10), even though UTJ have a solid base of voters and can barely change the number of voters they get, giving them one of the two numbers would be very strange, giving them both in the same cycle is simply ridiculous.

[Hnv1]

Lapid claims he will not oppose the annulment of the criminal sanction in his draft statute, thus making possible the adding of Shas to a Labour coalition.
Liberman is looking pretty desperate lately.

Flattering polls for Labour lately, this Friday most papers will probably have the last big polls to see. I will wait with betting on the result till Saturday then.

[ag]

As a proud draft dodger, I will reiterate: a Jew forcing the draft on the unwilling is no Jew.  Here I am 200% on the side of the religious parties. Lapid backtracking on this is a huge progress.

[Double Carpet]

Hi,

If anyone is interested in taking part, I'm running a prediction competition for Israel at:

electiongame.co.uk/israel15/

Many thanks,


DC

[ag]

[quote author=SunriseAroundTheWorld link=topic=203524.msg4517364#msg4517364

I think at the end of the day Likud will have enough seats and partners to form a coalition but it will be a weak one that will not last very long.


[/quote]

A narrow right-wing coalition would be fun to watch.

[MalaspinaGold]

What reform are we talking about? I think Lieberman may be loath to raise the threshold again, for obvious reasons.

[ag]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Agreed. Though, I feel like one of Bibi's conditions for a new government will be to have all coalition partners support electoral reform.

Unlikely. Any major reform would have to have been discussed by now, for it to be easy to impose as a coalition-building condition in a week's time. And there does not seem to be any minor reform that would do anything.

[Hnv1]

Lapid claims he will not oppose the annulment of the criminal sanction in his draft statute, thus making possible the adding of Shas to a Labour coalition.
Liberman is looking pretty desperate lately.

Flattering polls for Labour lately, this Friday most papers will probably have the last big polls to see. I will wait with betting on the result till Saturday then.

So Lapid has caved one of his biggest achievements? I didn't think it was a good thing at the time when he forced the draft statute (I thought the backlash would be much more severe), but I always liked the idea and especially now since it seems to have worked pretty well.

I am generally not against the religious parties, but if you live in a country with a draft...then everyone should have to serve (with the exception of certain minority groups in countries like Israel which have a national religion/ethnicity).

Biggest achievements. one of the worse bills to have ever been made

[ag]

So, the latest polls fairly consistently suggest that ZU may be about 3 seats ahead of Likud and that Kahlon will hold the ballance, as long as the "Arabs" are willing to endorse Herzog. In fact, it is gradually getting into the zone where Netanyahu may need not only Kachlon, but also every other rightwing and religious party (bar the person of Baruch Marzel) to form the government. It is hard to see YA joining Netanyahu after the recent experience, so it is either the narrow right wing or a very different government. So, some of the interesting questions now are

a) would Kahlon be willing to go into a narrow rightwing government with (almost) the entire right wing

b) would the "Arabs" be willing to offer sufficiently firm external support to a minority Labor/Livni government (in exchange, for, say, either Khenin or Tibi becoming the Knesset Speaker).

c) Would Likud be willing to go into a grand coalition WITHOUT Netanyahu being given the PM spot even for part of the term (e.g., if Labor insists on different Likud leadership as price of the rotation).

d) If the grand coalition is formed and "Arabs" are the largest opposition group in the Knesset, would they be allowed to become the official opposition?

[Famous Mortimer]

So, the latest polls fairly consistently suggest that ZU may be about 3 seats ahead of Likud and that Kahlon will hold the ballance, as long as the "Arabs" are willing to endorse Herzog. In fact, it is gradually getting into the zone where Netanyahu may need not only Kachlon, but also every other rightwing and religious party (bar the person of Baruch Marzel) to form the government. It is hard to see YA joining Netanyahu after the recent experience, so it is either the narrow right wing or a very different government. So, some of the interesting questions now are

a) would Kahlon be willing to go into a narrow rightwing government with (almost) the entire right wing

b) would the "Arabs" be willing to offer sufficiently firm external support to a minority Labor/Livni government (in exchange, for, say, either Khenin or Tibi becoming the Knesset Speaker).

c) Would Likud be willing to go into a grand coalition WITHOUT Netanyahu being given the PM spot even for part of the term (e.g., if Labor insists on different Likud leadership as price of the rotation).

d) If the grand coalition is formed and "Arabs" are the largest opposition group in the Knesset, would they be allowed to become the official opposition?

a) Yes. Why not?

b) Probably. Is the speakership something that's been talked about though? I wouldn't think the Arabs would even care about that. There would just have to be very concrete moves on the peace issue.

c) It would be dumb for Labor to ask Likud to pick a new leader, stick with Bibi since he's semi-unpopular and there's no one else to take over as of now. Why help Likud by making them pick a shiny new leader? Then again, it's Labor. They are stupid.

d) Most likely.

[Famous Mortimer]

Sarah Silverman endorses Meretz.

[ag]

So, the latest polls fairly consistently suggest that ZU may be about 3 seats ahead of Likud and that Kahlon will hold the ballance, as long as the "Arabs" are willing to endorse Herzog. In fact, it is gradually getting into the zone where Netanyahu may need not only Kachlon, but also every other rightwing and religious party (bar the person of Baruch Marzel) to form the government. It is hard to see YA joining Netanyahu after the recent experience, so it is either the narrow right wing or a very different government. So, some of the interesting questions now are

a) would Kahlon be willing to go into a narrow rightwing government with (almost) the entire right wing

b) would the "Arabs" be willing to offer sufficiently firm external support to a minority Labor/Livni government (in exchange, for, say, either Khenin or Tibi becoming the Knesset Speaker).

c) Would Likud be willing to go into a grand coalition WITHOUT Netanyahu being given the PM spot even for part of the term (e.g., if Labor insists on different Likud leadership as price of the rotation).

d) If the grand coalition is formed and "Arabs" are the largest opposition group in the Knesset, would they be allowed to become the official opposition?

a) Yes. Why not?

b) Probably. Is the speakership something that's been talked about though? I wouldn't think the Arabs would even care about that. There would just have to be very concrete moves on the peace issue.

c) It would be dumb for Labor to ask Likud to pick a new leader, stick with Bibi since he's semi-unpopular and there's no one else to take over as of now. Why help Likud by making them pick a shiny new leader? Then again, it's Labor. They are stupid.

d) Most likely.

a) the ultra-right government would be the one where he would find himself consistently in a minority. That is the sort of a government even Netanyahu would not be fully comfortable in.

b) Arabs care about MANY things other than the peace issue. Remember: these are Israeli Arabs. Their primary concern is discrimination they suffer from daily. Yes, they care about their brothers and sisters on the territories: but, first and foremost, they care about themselves.

c) "shiny new leader"? And who would that be? Netanyahu has shown himself to be a very dangerous partner. And he is a very good politician. He should be marginalized.

d) that would be fun to watch

[Famous Mortimer]

The religious parties are not dogmatically free market, quiet the opposite. So Kahlon would be quite comfortable sitting in a government with them. He'd be one of the few members of the coalition who supports the idea of a Palestinian state but that's never been his key issue. In fact, he used to oppose the Gaza pull out, so it's not like he's a huge supporter, more just someone who's hypothetically okay with it. Liberman holds pretty much the same position so Kahlon wouldn't even be the only one. No reason Kahlon couldn't form a government with the right. I suspect he ends up going with whoever comes in first though.