Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[ag]

Regarding Yachad I assume it's Russiam supporting Marzel (most of the hardcore of Kach were Americans and Russians) not so much supporting Yishai the 'papuas' (dirty word I heard some Russians call him when he was in Shas)

Among "Russians proper", that is, of course, what it is. If we expand to "Soviets", there are also, possibly, some of the Bukharans and the Georgians. But that sector I know next to nothing about.

I don't really group them together either and can't say I know much of their voting patterns. I did a quick look on some towns and cities I know there's a big 'Kavkaz' population and it seems Likud+YB dominated very strongly last time with JH coming second and surprisingly YA third. They are generally more religious compared to the secular Russians yet I still doubt even Yishai can appeal to them

Well, considering that Shas has recently had a Bukharan and a Georgian MK, why not?

Might be with earlier immigrants\very religious ones. I just can't see the appeal for more traditionalists with Yishai. But can't say I know that sector very well so we'll have and see the results to see if there was any sway  

These communities are much more religious than you think.

[ag]

I am from one of these communities, and I can tell you that we may not be super religious but we are very traditional. Especially in Israel. This might have a role in some of them supporting people like Yishai.

Yeah, traditional is more like the right word. Who cares about G-d, when the salami is kosher.

[ag]

There is one detail that makes it slightly more comfortable for ZU than for Likud on the last day. Likud is, effectively, the left wing of its own coalition. Yes, there is also Kulanu, but Kulanu is, actually, for the Likudniks who hate Bibi, so Bibi (and the entire Likud campaign is Bibi now) has little appeal there. So, they are campaigning towards their own right, poaching from the parties they would need to form the coalition with. And two of those parties are in danger of not making it accross the 3.25% line, so not being able to differentiate makes it dangerous: too successful and effort would lead to a defeat. The main point of the campaign is to excite the convinced: but there is not even monotonicity of success in effort: G-d forbid, too many people show up, so that Yachad is pushed below the line. That is quite some equilibrating to do.

ZU, in contrast, is in the middle of its camp. YA and Kulanu (which it would need to form a government) are both to the right and are not in danger of failing. By moving towards the center ZU can pick up  votes without treatening to push anyone under, while pushing YA and Kulanu further right, where they can pick up some centrists. And it also leaves greater space for Meretz on the left: quite handy, given that Meretz is in danger of not making it.

In any case, Likud is running to the right and ZU is running to the center. Generally, running to the extreme is a sign of grave trouble for a major party: it only makes sense to do this if you are losing. Though, of course, the reason it makes sense at all is that the weaker party may, actually, win precisely by differentiating itself from the stronger one. Clearly, Netanyahu senses himself an underdog now. But he is fighting.

[Barnes]

Do you all know about what time results will start coming in?

[Indy Texas]

Not sure if anyone's posted this anywhere yet:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/17/world/middleeast/benjamin-netanyahu-campaign-settlement.html?_r=0

Netanyahu reversed his support for the two-state solution, saying if he is re-elected, there will be no Palestinian state. In 2009, he had endorsed the two-state solution in a speech.

He's officially reached Peak Bibi. This sort of desperate pandering to the fundie base reminds me of Rick Perry flailing in Iowa a few days before the caucus and making that absurd ad where he rants about the gays and muh school prayer.

[ag]

Do you all know about what time results will start coming in?

Should start getting in midafternoon EST tomorrow. The problem is, there are some votes that will not be counted till Thursday. If any of the parties is right on the threshold, we may be in for a few funny days.

[ag]

Apparently, a Russian human rights activist (Elena Vassilyeva) has been detained on arrival to Israel. According to some reports (not certain, how verifiable these are) she has been told that the government of Israel does not want troubles with Putin, and that she will be deported back to Russia.

Anyway, not certain how reliable the report is, but if it is, this really makes one wonder about the foreign policy priorities of the current Israeli government.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though before even the exit polls are out you generally have a few hours of increasingly solid-sounding rumours. Israelis are a sufficiently gossipy bunch that these are generally not inaccurate, at least in general terms.

[ag]

Though before even the exit polls are out you generally have a few hours of increasingly solid-sounding rumours. Israelis are a sufficiently gossipy bunch that these are generally not inaccurate, at least in general terms.

Yeah, but this will be the first time when there is a discontinuity in the electoral system. In the past Israel had no, or almost no real treshold. Even 2% of recent memory was not likely to change results significantly. Now, with the 3.25% trehshold we are in for a proper discontinuity. And that may be hard to get merely off rumors.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

True enough. Should add to the entertainment value though.

[Famous Mortimer]

3.25 is still one of the lowest thresholds in the industrialized world. For all the hand wringing that goes on, Yachad is really the only party in danger of not making it and they would have had trouble with the hold threshold. Even before the Arab parties united, UAL and Hadash were more likely than not to make it as well.

[ag]

3.25 is still one of the lowest thresholds in the industrialized world. For all the hand wringing that goes on, Yachad is really the only party in danger of not making it and they would have had trouble with the hold threshold. Even before the Arab parties united, UAL and Hadash were more likely than not to make it as well.

Mexico has just raised it from 2% to 3%, and I think that is far too high. Anyway, there are now quite a few lower threshold countries. Holland, for instance. Or Denmark. And in many of the countries with the higher threshold there are provisions for being elected from a district. And I am really concerned about Meretz and YB (not that I would at all mind YB missing it )

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Are there any English livestreams available for the results?

[ag]

So, tomorrow after 10 PM Israeli time we shall be looking here

http://bechirot.gov.il/election/English/pages/default.aspx

[Barnes]

So, tomorrow after 10 PM Israeli time we shall be looking here

http://bechirot.gov.il/election/English/pages/default.aspx

Ah, thanks!

[ag]

News sites would, probably, be no worse, if not better. We shall see what works.

[MalaspinaGold]

Word is, prepare for heavy turnout. The official election website has crashed (see, Bibi can't even make a silly website!)

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Word is, prepare for heavy turnout. The official election website has crashed (see, Bibi can't even make a silly website!)

Arabs must vote in large numbers.  The more Arabs vote the less seats are won by Likud.

[MalaspinaGold]

More likely young people are voting in higher numbers this year. This can be either good (if they're form Tel Aviv) or bad (virtually anywhere else).

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

More likely young people are voting in higher numbers this year. This can be either good (if they're form Tel Aviv) or bad (virtually anywhere else).

That will help too - it's important that anyone who opposes Bibi's brinkmanship to vote.  I don't like Herzog that much but he's promised to reopen talks with Palestinians - and the incumbent just said that he won't allow an independent Palestinian state.  I have no choice but to support Herzog as the only viable non-Netanyahu candidate for PM.

[MalaspinaGold]

Israeli elections do not hinge on who are the ministerial candidates, considering that it is very likely that the party that builds a coalition will occupy less than 50% of the seats. Especially considering they use a purely proportional system.

turnout update: 7.4% 2 hours in, lower than what was expected.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

"There will be no unity government with the left led by Labor" - Benyamin Netanyahu
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.647304
Following this live blog.

[136or142]

Word is, prepare for heavy turnout. The official election website has crashed (see, Bibi can't even make a silly website!)

Neither could Obama!

So, the polls close at noon Pacific Daylight time?

[Hnv1]

Turnout is highest since 1999, I actually went back home without voting because of the massive cue at the ballot. From chats around my precinct there is a large swing toward Labour

[danny]

Word is, prepare for heavy turnout. The official election website has crashed (see, Bibi can't even make a silly website!)

Neither could Obama!

So, the polls close at noon Pacific Daylight time?

13:00