Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Vosem]

The question is whether or not Liberman would consider joining the left. It's unlikely but he might be able to do it if he gets civil marriage as a result.

He joined Ehud Olmert's government in 2006, but pulled out after 2 years in 2008.

[MalaspinaGold]

Letting Lieberman in would mean leaving Meretz out. If Meretz gets 8 or higher seats, and Lieberman gets 11 or lower, that becomes impractical.  In addition, it would make it harder to let the Haredim in. Shas says its top two goals for the next government will be hiking the minimum wage and lowering the VAT on goods. That won't sit in well with Lieberman.

If Yishai makes his own party and proceeds to crash and burn, then that gives Deri a much stronger reason to stick with the left.

So I think the most likely left coalition is Labor/Livni-Lapid-Kachlon-Meretz-Haredim

The new labor bloc (not sure if they'll keep calling it labor) will have Livni as number 2, Mofaz in the top 5, and Peretz and Mitzna in the top 10. And yes, Tzipi is delusional.

Also, it seems that Diskin has been hanging around at labor functions recently; so him getting on the list is also a possibility. Also, Saar is supposed to be considering a primary challenge to Bibi right now, and Bibi wants to move up the primary date to quash it.

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Post-poll-may-entice-Saar-to-run-383847

[Famous Mortimer]

Like I said, I envision Liberman as a replacement for the Haredim, so getting them together wouldn't be necessary.

It might make cooperation with Meretz harder but would it really be that much harder than having Yesh Atid and Haredim together, which is an absolute necessity if you're going to have a Liberman-less left coalition?

I think Meretz would probably come around, they wouldn't be happy about it but they would come around.

Also, if Livni, Mofaz, Peretz, and Mitzna all get spots in the top 10, plus Herzog's automatic top spot as party leader, that means only half of the top 10 will be elected by Labor primary voters. I don't think that's going to a negative effect or anything, I just think it's funny.

[MalaspinaGold]

The ideological gap between Lapid and the Haredim imo is smaller than between Meretz and Lieberman. If I remember correctly Lapid said he's ready to sit with the Haredim to get rid of Netanyahu and could switch his support for the house VAT to the goods VAT to appease them. Also, Meretz got a lot of backlash in 2006 for even considering to sit with Lieberman, even though they didn't actually go through with it. Also, there is the possibility that Yesh Atid goes the way of Kadima, in which case any potential conflict is rendered moot.

Re: your latter point, yeah I noticed that. Is there a possibility they change their name to reflect some kind of unity, like the Alignment coalition 40 years ago?

[Famous Mortimer]

I have no real idea but my gut feeling says no. The name "Labor" is what makes them a major party. Without that, they're just another fly by night centrist party.

[Famous Mortimer]

Too bad Sharon couldn't have hung on for a few more months. It would have been amusing to see him become a Labor party member against his will.  Would show how far to the right Israeli politics has moved.

[Famous Mortimer]

Here's a piece on Zouheir Bahlul, the sportscaster hnv1 mentioned may join Meretz:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-arab-sportscaster-to-get-into-game-from-inside-knesset/

This guy almost sounds too right-wing for Meretz, which kind of makes sense because I can't imagine a background in sports presenting making someone a latte liberal. Still, I can't think of a party that would fit him better.

[Vosem]

Possibly the name Labor won't be used (it wasn't in 1999 when Labor ran a joint list with Gesher and Meimad; that was called "One Israel", but it was Labor in all but name), but it would still be Labor and voters would understand this. If they want to not say Labor but have voters understand that it is Labor, the historical names that have been used are Yisrael Ahat ("One Israel") and HaMa'arakh ("Alignment", which was the name Labor went by for 22 years, 1969-1991).

Or they could just say Labor-Hatnuah-Kadima; there's precedent for stringing three party names together instead of coming up with a new name. It's four that would set a record.

Too bad Sharon couldn't have hung on for a few more months. It would have been amusing to see him become a Labor party member against his will.  Would show how far to the right Israeli politics has moved.

Huh? If Sharon had hung on for a few more months, Kadima would have won a bigger victory in 2006. Kadima was a major party for 7 years purely off of Sharon's legacy; the longer he lives, the more established Kadima would be as a major party. Eventually, Labor may have joined Sharon's Kadima rather than the reverse.

[MalaspinaGold]

I think he's referring to comatose Arik, rather than noncomatose Arik.

[Famous Mortimer]

I think he's referring to comatose Arik, rather than noncomatose Arik.

Yeah, exactly.

[Hnv1]

if Livni joins they will just name Tanuat Havoda (Labur movement which is the official name anyway).

Starting to look similar to 99 election with the anti-Bibi sentiment. good

[Sec. of State Superique]

Livni came out and made a weird statement that Hatnuah and Labor will merge but also said she wants to head the list.

Her delusions of grandeur are bordering on mental illness.

Where have you seen that?

[Famous Mortimer]

Livni came out and made a weird statement that Hatnuah and Labor will merge but also said she wants to head the list.

Her delusions of grandeur are bordering on mental illness.

Where have you seen that?

http://www.timesofisrael.com/livni-confirms-hatnua-labor-merger-ahead-of-elections/

[Famous Mortimer]

Yisrael Hasson, the non-Mofaz member of Kadima, is resigning the Knesset to become head of the state Archeological Authority. He will be replaced by the number 4 on the Kadima list, Ronit Tirosh (who I think is pretty). Number 3 on the Kadima list, Yohanan Plesner, didn't want the seat because he's head of something called the Israeli Democracy Institute and because being an MK for like 3 months is stupid.

[Vosem]

Is the agreement between Mofaz and Herzog going to be just for Mofaz, who'll just switch parties leaving Kadima to flounder under the threshold, or is it going to be a full alliance between Labor and Kadima, in which case Tirosh might get a position on the list, say in the teens? I thought it was going to be the latter, but Hasson resigning smells like Mofaz might be going for the former.

[danny]

Is the agreement between Mofaz and Herzog going to be just for Mofaz, who'll just switch parties leaving Kadima to flounder under the threshold, or is it going to be a full alliance between Labor and Kadima, in which case Tirosh might get a position on the list, say in the teens? I thought it was going to be the latter, but Hasson resigning smells like Mofaz might be going for the former.

There is no longer such a thing as Kadima separate from Mofaz,  if he joins then that is the same as the party joining labour, regardless of whether other members come with him.

[Vosem]

Is the agreement between Mofaz and Herzog going to be just for Mofaz, who'll just switch parties leaving Kadima to flounder under the threshold, or is it going to be a full alliance between Labor and Kadima, in which case Tirosh might get a position on the list, say in the teens? I thought it was going to be the latter, but Hasson resigning smells like Mofaz might be going for the former.

There is no longer such a thing as Kadima separate from Mofaz,  if he joins then that is the same as the party joining labour, regardless of whether other members come with him.

But the point of the question was, would other members (like Tirosh) also receive guaranteed positions on the Labor list? Even if the second Kadima member gets a spot in the teens, that's still a pretty realistic shot at getting back in the Knesset. Hasson resigning seems to point to no (though, since Hasson was originally a floor-crosser from Yisrael Beiteinu, maybe he just doesn't want to be associated with Labor).

[Famous Mortimer]

I think it's a good question. I don't know why they wouldn't go through with a formal merger unless of course Kadima has a lot of debt, which is entirely possible.

As for a second seat, Herzog already told Mofaz he couldn't have it and Mofaz conceded. As for competing in the primaries like a normal Labor member, I don't think Tirosh would have much of a chance. As I pointed out, with 4 people getting appointed in the top 10, there's a limited number of realistic spots for incumbent Labor MKs, competition will be stiff.

Yohanan Plesner is much better known, he headed the commission on drafting the ultra-Orthodox. He would have had a slightly better chance but even he opted out.

[Vosem]

I see -- under that circumstance, Hasson resigning for greener pastures makes sense.

[Famous Mortimer]

Gotta be disappointing for him what constitutes greener pastures though. Hasson was the number 2 candidate on the Yisrael Beytenu list in 2006. He was set to be a big deal but never really took off.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So effectively a return to one of Labor's traditional electoral tactics?

[Hnv1]

I think it's a good question. I don't know why they wouldn't go through with a formal merger unless of course Kadima has a lot of debt, which is entirely possible.

As for a second seat, Herzog already told Mofaz he couldn't have it and Mofaz conceded. As for competing in the primaries like a normal Labor member, I don't think Tirosh would have much of a chance. As I pointed out, with 4 people getting appointed in the top 10, there's a limited number of realistic spots for incumbent Labor MKs, competition will be stiff.

Yohanan Plesner is much better known, he headed the commission on drafting the ultra-Orthodox. He would have had a slightly better chance but even he opted out.

Kadima are in massive debts...I'm not sure of what legal trick they'll do here to get the campaign funding money of Kadima without taking on the debts

[MalaspinaGold]

Besides Bayit Yehudi, when will the rest of the parties be submitting their lists/picking their chairs?

[MalaspinaGold]

Lapid-Hatnua will indeed get a new name.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Labor-led-bloc-with-Livni-Peretz-to-get-new-name-384068
And it seems Labor backbenchers are none too happy about the deal; some want to break off from Herzog. completely.

LOLabor

EDIT: And Deri claims Shas is united once again, but Yishai remains mum.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Yishai-staying-in-Shas-Deri-says-384070

[Famous Mortimer]

I wonder who's threatening to break away.