Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Vosem]

Limor Livnat won't be seeking another term.

I wonder who's threatening to break away.

Considering the well-publicized need of the Israeli left to stay unified, and that these are apparently five unknown backbenchers, could they realistically fail to hit the 3.25% barrier if they run alone? I feel like that number will keep them within Herzog's list.

[Hnv1]

I wonder who's threatening to break away.

Possibly the hardcore of Yechimovic camp...but it's remains are only Rosenthal, Mizrachi. Looks like a bit BS to me.

[Famous Mortimer]

Agreed.

I remember last election when the Arabs and the kibbutz movement threatened to break away because they didn't like Shelly's leadership. Didn't happen.

[Hnv1]

channel 10:
Labour+Livni 22
Likud 20
JH 15
Kachlon 13
Liberman 11
Lapid 10
Shas 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6
Hadash 5
Ra'am Ta'al 4

PM fit:
Bibi 23%
Herzog 22%
Bennet 13%
Sahar 12%

[Hnv1]

Official - Herzog and Livni are forming a bloc, Kadima is not yet a part of it. The traditional 8PM press conference soon
Edit: Herzog and Livni agreed on PM rotation if they win. i truly can't understand how Herzog agreed
Edit #2: the bloc will be named "The Zionist Camp"...pretty lame

[MalaspinaGold]

You know, they never miss an opportunity, etc.

EDIT: Kachlon's party will be called Kulanu (All of us)

http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-likud-minister-kahlon-to-call-his-new-party-kulanu/

[DL]

Maybe Israel just needs "the Silly Party" and "The Sensible Party"

[Vosem]

There's a Muslim running in the Jewish Home primaries who's attracted some attention named Anett Haskia: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/188477#.VIjK2mTF9As

[Famous Mortimer]

Herzog's appeal is based entirely on being "not Netanyahu" so maybe this won't effect him. Bowing to Livni makes him look weak as hell though and it highlights how power hungry Livni is. Doesn't look good in my view.

[Famous Mortimer]

Seriously, I don't get Livni's deal.

It's not like Israeli politicians don't frequently come back from irrelevancy (Sharon, Bibi, Barack, Peretz). If she would just settle the F down, fly below the radar for a couple of cycles, she might be able to ride back in on a white horse.

Instead she just makes herself look desperate by constantly seeking power.

I'm probably jinxing myself though and she'll end up becoming PM.

[MalaspinaGold]

There's a Muslim running in the Jewish Home primaries who's attracted some attention named Anett Haskia: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/188477#.VIjK2mTF9As

Wat is this I don't even...

[Hnv1]

Seriously, I don't get Livni's deal.

It's not like Israeli politicians don't frequently come back from irrelevancy (Sharon, Bibi, Barack, Peretz). If she would just settle the F down, fly below the radar for a couple of cycles, she might be able to ride back in on a white horse.

Instead she just makes herself look desperate by constantly seeking power.

I'm probably jinxing myself though and she'll end up becoming PM.

Well it's not a good deal (even with rotation Herzog could have gotten a better deal), I think Herzog needed some boost to really rise to the front row and be seen as a candidate. Livni has a dowry of the support of Yediot Ahronot and you can't battle for PM without it.

Former leader Yechimovic supports this move and came out supporting Herzog. MK Ben Eliezer announced his retirement from political life from his hospital bed

Regarding the Arab at JH, everywhere in the world you see this anomalies...an immigrants' child at Ukip, a Jew in FN, a black republican. Bottom line, The electoral significance is minor.

[MalaspinaGold]

This article makes a decent case for the rotation... considering the stability of recent Israeli coalitions, it's not like Herzog is giving up much by giving Livni the final two years of his term.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/with-the-herzog-livni-merger-an-opposition-materializes/

Also the drama he's getting right now is pretty major... even with his post nomination bump he was never beating Bibi. He has to hope that this is his floor rather than his ceiling.

hnv1, what is your opinion of Herzog as compared to past labor leaders; my impression is that he's pretty much average, a meh candidate in most respects.

And alas, more Jews are starting to support FN.

Also, what can we expect politically in the coming weeks? Any new campaign announcements etc?

[Hnv1]

hnv1, what is your opinion of Herzog as compared to past labor leaders; my impression is that he's pretty much average, a meh candidate in most respects.

And alas, more Jews are starting to support FN.

Also, what can we expect politically in the coming weeks? Any new campaign announcements etc?

He lacks charisma but he's rather intelligent. He to the left of Yechimovic on Peace issues but more centre on economic ones. He's a classic Labour prince connected to the old party establishment which will make him very popular with old people. From what I gather he's actually very gifted politically with combining different elements together as was seen during the 'Alternative Knesset' session. I do think he could make a good PM but he's a bit old school and sends a vibe of old Labour no PM since Eshkol had.
We will have to wait and see if he actually formulate into a good PM candidate, I personally believe he's the best since Mitzna and if he keeps gathering more elements under his banner he will look like a good leader though unexciting.

Lapid is a bit screwed right now with this union and I think he will lose and go futher down. He has nothing to run on, no one sees him as a possible PM and on economic issues Kachlon looks more exciting to the dumb centre voter.
There were rumours yesterday of a possible centre bloc with Liberman-Lapid-Kachlon, I find this very unlikely and any link with Liberman will see voters flock to Laour.

The question is what will Bibi do. He's not dumb and he feels the very hostile atmosphere, will he seek a union with JH? unknown yet but I'm sure he's hoping for a moderate list selected in the primariesץ


Meanwhile, Likud are really sinking to new lows calling Herzog a 'Nerd' and making misogynistic comments about Livni

[Sec. of State Superique]

In the parallel universe of Atlasia, Mr. Netanyahu decided to make a peace agreement with Palestine and this ended up splitting Likud (with Feiglin joining forces with Bennet), in the end Bibi was talking about making a peace deal and calling for "homebuilding". The whole situation resulted in a special election called in November of 2013, with the following results:

Jewish Home (Bennet-Feiglin): 23 [+4]
Labor (Yachimovich): 18 [+3]
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 15 [-4]
Meretz (Gal-On): 12 [+6]
Likud (Netanyahu): 10 [-3]
Shas (Deri): 9 [-2]
Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman): 9 [-2]
United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni): 5 [-2]
Hatnuah (Livni): 5 [-1]
United Arab List (Sarsur): 4 [±0]
Hadash (Barakeh): 4 [±0]
Balad (Zahalka): 3 [±0]
Otzma LeYisrael (Eldad): 3 [+3]
Kadima (Mofaz): 0 [-2]

Peres decided to call for Mr.Yacimovich to make a Government and she ended up having a minority government (Netanyahu refused to make a Government with both Bennet and Yacimovich). In December, facing pressure both from her party and other political parties, Yacimovich is taken out from her leadership and Isaac Herzog takes the lead. He ends up calling for a unity government and is finally able to form a majority government.

Now things start to get interesting: In order to ensure that Bennet is not able to be Prime Minister, Herzog fusions the Labor Party with Livni's Hatnuah, forming the Labor-Hatnuah or The Labor Movement. Then his coalition is based on the efforts of making a peace deal possible; he calls Meretz, Shas and Likud to form his party and he is finally able to start makes thing happen. Here it is his coalition and Cabinet.

"The Peace Coalition"

The Labor Movement– 23
Yesh Atid – 15
Meretz – 12
Likud – 10
Shas - 9

Total – 69 Members of the Knesset


The current government:

Prime Minister:  Isaac Herzog (The Labor Movement - 23)
Foreign Minister: Tzipi Livni (The Labor Movement- 23)
Minister of Finance: Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid - 14)
Defense Minister: Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud - 10)
Public Security Minister: Amir Peretz (The Labor Movement – 23)
Justice Minister: Zahava Gal-On (Meretz - 12)
Minister of Industry, Trade and Labor: Arieh Deri (Shas – 9)[/center]


Now, you may be wondering why I have brought this Atlasian Utopia to you. It is specially because now I think that with Moshe Khachlon could serve as the "peaceful" Netanyahu and Likud that we had in Atlasia. I strongly believe that if Herzog and Livni can keep it up with their momentum, they are going to be able to form a government.

And this would be its probable face:
Labor-Hatnuah-Kadima + Yesh Atid + Kachlon's Kulanu + Meretz + Shas

It is going to be a rather centrist coalition with a small left tilt in Foreign Policy and I do think that this might be feasible, although not extremely likely.

[MalaspinaGold]

In the parallel universe of Atlasia, Mr. Netanyahu decided to make a peace agreement with Palestine and this ended up splitting Likud (with Feiglin joining forces with Bennet), in the end Bibi was talking about making a peace deal and calling for "homebuilding". The whole situation resulted in a special election called in November of 2013, with the following results:

Jewish Home (Bennet-Feiglin): 23 [+4]
Labor (Yachimovich): 18 [+3]
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 15 [-4]
Meretz (Gal-On): 12 [+6]
Likud (Netanyahu): 10 [-3]
Shas (Deri): 9 [-2]
Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman): 9 [-2]
United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni): 5 [-2]
Hatnuah (Livni): 5 [-1]
United Arab List (Sarsur): 4 [±0]
Hadash (Barakeh): 4 [±0]
Balad (Zahalka): 3 [±0]
Otzma LeYisrael (Eldad): 3 [+3]
Kadima (Mofaz): 0 [-2]

Peres decided to call for Mr.Yacimovich to make a Government and she ended up having a minority government (Netanyahu refused to make a Government with both Bennet and Yacimovich). In December, facing pressure both from her party and other political parties, Yacimovich is taken out from her leadership and Isaac Herzog takes the lead. He ends up calling for a unity government and is finally able to form a majority government.

Now things start to get interesting: In order to ensure that Bennet is not able to be Prime Minister, Herzog fusions the Labor Party with Livni's Hatnuah, forming the Labor-Hatnuah or The Labor Movement. Then his coalition is based on the efforts of making a peace deal possible; he calls Meretz, Shas and Likud to form his party and he is finally able to start makes thing happen. Here it is his coalition and Cabinet.

"The Peace Coalition"

The Labor Movement– 23
Yesh Atid – 15
Meretz – 12
Likud – 10
Shas - 9

Total – 69 Members of the Knesset


The current government:

Prime Minister:  Isaac Herzog (The Labor Movement - 23)
Foreign Minister: Tzipi Livni (The Labor Movement- 23)
Minister of Finance: Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid - 14)
Defense Minister: Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud - 10)
Public Security Minister: Amir Peretz (The Labor Movement – 23)
Justice Minister: Zahava Gal-On (Meretz - 12)
Minister of Industry, Trade and Labor: Arieh Deri (Shas – 9)[/center]


Now, you may be wondering why I have brought this Atlasian Utopia to you. It is specially because now I think that with Moshe Khachlon could serve as the "peaceful" Netanyahu and Likud that we had in Atlasia. I strongly believe that if Herzog and Livni can keep it up with their momentum, they are going to be able to form a government.

And this would be its probable face:
Labor-Hatnuah-Kadima + Yesh Atid + Kachlon's Kulanu + Meretz + Shas

It is going to be a rather centrist coalition with a small left tilt in Foreign Policy and I do think that this might be feasible, although not extremely likely.

In the above scenario it is much more likely that rather than accept Bibi Yachimovich takes in UTJ (Shas is already in the coalition anyway, and UTJ is more lefty than Shas on many issues)

EDIT: So new updates out of Shas and Jewish Home, where everybody hates everybody.

Basically, Deri offered Yishai second spot and a ministerial position if Shas were in the government. However, he apparently also wants Yishai to fill out a pre-pepared resignation letter that Deri can keep until Yishai starts acting... insubordinate. Yishai basically gave Deri the middle finger, and cancelled a join press conference of reconciliation. Likelihood is that he leaves as early as next week.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Discontent-grows-within-Shas-over-battle-to-lead-the-party-384288

In the meantime Bennett wants to limit the number of seats allotted to Tekuma from 4 to 2 or 3. From what I can understand, Ariel also wants to split, but he would have a harder time doing so than Yishai, as his faction is relatively small. If he does break though, chances are he would link up with Yishai.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Bayit-Yehudi-and-Tekuma-still-at-loggerheads-over-joint-electoral-list-384411

[Vosem]

In minor-party news, far-far-right party Otzma LeYisrael, which came within a few tenths of a percent of getting into the Knesset in 2013, is being reorganized as Otzma Yehudit, to be led by former National Union MK Michael Ben-Ari.

Speculation continues to be rampant about the possibility of a joint Likud-JH list, or a joint Kulanu-YA list, but both in my judgement seems unlikely to happen.

[MalaspinaGold]

Add to the speculation a joint Shas-Jewish Home list (LOL)
http://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-home-shas-consider-alliance-to-counter-rebellious-party-members/

My bet's that it's just noise but who knows... this IS Israeli politics after all.

[ag]

It would be interesting to see the impact of the new threshold. Israeli politicians and voters do not have experience dealing with it. Will the small parties fade, once it becomes clear they are not making it, or are we going to see a few parties with around 2 or 3% of the vote each?

[Vosem]

A poll of Arab voters apparently shows most would prefer, if an all-Arab parties list were to be formed, it would be headed by MK Ahmad Tibi: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4602589,00.html .

[ag]

A poll of Arab voters apparently shows most would prefer, if an all-Arab parties list were to be formed, it would be headed by MK Ahmad Tibi: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4602589,00.html .

The problem, of course, is that Hadash is not a fully Arab list, but, rather, a "non-Zionist" one. What would somebody like Dov Khenin do in a "United Arab Party"? And, though there may not be too many Jewish votes in that, but there are some, which could be lost that way. And, in any case, I do not think Hadash is in much danger of not making it at this point. Balad and UAL merging, though, would make a lot of sense at this point. If they do not, there is a big risk a chunk of Arab vote is lost. On the other hand, if they do merge, between them and Hadash there may be a larger than usual complement of Arab Party/non-Zionist MKs, which, in a close election, could make the government harder to form.

[Vosem]

Eli Yishai has announced that he will attempt to have his party called Maran, which in Aramaic means "our master"; it was what the disciples of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef frequently called him, to the extent that the word is apparently today usually associated with Yosef. If, for whatever reason, this name is not approved by the Registrar, Yishai also announced the backup name Yahad (Hebrew for "together"), which has previously been used as a name twice: once by a center-left party founded by Ezer Weizmann that contested the 1984 elections and then merged into the Alignment (basically the forerunner of today's Labor Party), and from 2003-2004 the merger of Meretz and Shahar was called this (before reverting to the name Meretz, which was by far the dominant partner).

There've been so many different parties over the course of Israeli history that names are starting to have to be reused

[Famous Mortimer]

Meretz changed their name back because Yachad means "poison" in Russian.

[Vosem]

Meretz changed their name back because Yachad means "poison" in Russian.

As a Russian speaker I can tell you that, while it sounds similar to the word poison ("yad"), that is not what it means and in fact it is a nonsense word. They chose Yachad over the word Ya'ad (Hebrew for "goal") because ya'ad sounds like the word poison, and then changed it back to Meretz because Meretz is a brand name, nobody knew who they were when they were Yachad, and Yossi Beilin (previously the leader of Shahar, the smaller part of the merger) was elected leader of Meretz and acquiesced to the change back.

Also, Labor and Hatnuah have hammered out their agreement; Hatnuah will have 6 of the first 25 seats. The first four Hatnuah members (Livni/Mitzna/Peretz/Stern) should be able to get back into the Knesset; but beyond that it looks pretty dicey.

[MalaspinaGold]

Yishai calls his party Maran, while Maran's daughter is staying with Deri.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.631743

I just have a feeling that this will backfire on Yishai...

Also, elections to the Meretz steering committee will take place December 28 (good luck hnv1!) and the list will be chosen January 19th.

Also, more on the Herzog-Livni deal: spot 17 will be reserved for an Arab, 18 for a Kibbutznik, and the 11th place is Herzog's to pick, he'll probably put Mofaz there.

EDIT: Bayit Yehudi MK Yoni Chetboun has left Bayit Yehudi. If Ariel wants to bring in major funding for a merger with Yishai, getting Chetboun is critical. Chetboun is of course sephardic.
http://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/MK-Yoni-Chetboun-to-leave-Bayit-Yehudi-party-384643