Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[MalaspinaGold]

And it looks like Yishai trolled us- the name will in fact be Ha'am Itanu- The Nation is with us

In his kickoff speech he sounds like a Kachlon copycat:
“The nation is with us because the nation wants unity, wants to finally break down the barriers between the religious and secular, between Ashkenazi and Sephardi [Jews],” Yishai said. “The nation is with us because the nation wants social justice and concern for the poor, to the underprivileged, the periphery and development towns."

Also, Chetboun has officially joined in with Yishai, but it doesn't seem like he'll be getting many if any Shas MKs, most of them pledged their loyalty to Deri already- then again you never know.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-shas-mk-yishai-called-traitor-as-he-unveils-new-party/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Famous Mortimer]

I know it's just a platitude but breaking down the barriers between secular and religious sounds like an odd appeal from a party that is presumably trying to persuade Tekuma to join on the grounds that the Jewish Home isn't pious enough.

[MalaspinaGold]

Here's a video of the Yishai press conference... all seemed to go smoothly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nplcoZXLn-I#t=87

EDIT: So, people seem to be confused as to what exactly Yishai's party name will be- some say Ha'am Itanu, others say Yachad.

[Hnv1]

Chetboun was head to head with Yogev on the dumbest MK

Tkuma might stay with JH who are expecting a very interesting primaries with dozens of candidates/

Bibi wants to reserve two spots for his candidates (rumoured to be former almost Cos MG Gallant), so far the party tribunal declared the move void

[Famous Mortimer]

Labor MP Avishay Braverman will not run for re-election.

[danny]

EDIT: So, people seem to be confused as to what exactly Yishai's party name will be- some say Ha'am Itanu, others say Yachad.

there is no name yet.

[Famous Mortimer]

Labor is trying to get Manuel Trajtenberg as their new resident economics expert.

Of course he's already being courted by Kahlon as well. I think that's where he'll end up going (if he runs at all) because he'll get a higher slot and is more likely to get a ministry that way.

I think if Herzog insists on having an economics wonk, it will probably end up being that Sephardic guy who was like number 13 or something on Livni's list last time whose name I can't remember. So no one good.

[MalaspinaGold]

Bahloul will run with Labor, as will most likely Trajtenberg.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/soccer-radio-wiz-bahloul-likely-to-run-for-labor-seat/
This will be a loss for Meretz and Kachlon respectively.

Anyone know Trajtenberg's economic views?

[Hnv1]

Bahloul will run with Labor, as will most likely Trajtenberg.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/soccer-radio-wiz-bahloul-likely-to-run-for-labor-seat/
This will be a loss for Meretz and Kachlon respectively.

Anyone know Trajtenberg's economic views?

centre-right. On one hand increase in government budgets to education and such and on the other disliking of a strong welfare state, high taxes and public ownership of many companies

[The Mikado]

What happens if Likud gets the exact same number of seats as either Jewish Home or the Labour coalition? Which one gets to try to form a coalition?

[MalaspinaGold]

Whoever bribes Rivlin more

Just kidding, it's  whoever bribes Kachon more, since it's almost certain no one can get a majority without him, and it depends on how the other center parties do- the more seats Lieberman has, the more likely Bibi will form the coalition.

What's interesting is with the fragmentation of Shas, Yesh Atid now has a chance of being larger than Shas + UTJ, and so a secular-left coalition is not out of the running yet.

[Famous Mortimer]

Trajtenberg is getting the spot people thought was going to Mofaz?

[danny]

What happens if Likud gets the exact same number of seats as either Jewish Home or the Labour coalition? Which one gets to try to form a coalition?

It doesn't go by which party is the biggest, the important thing is which party can form a coalition with a majority of Knesset members. Kadima had 1 more seat in 2009, but Bibi still became PM, because he managed to create a coalition.

[Hnv1]

Trajtenberg is getting the spot people thought was going to Mofaz?

He'll probably get the second spot secured for Livni's people (which will mean we'll see Mitzna booted to a very unrealistic place). Mofaz is not quite there yet and from what I gather from friends in Labour there are many people there who do'n't want to see him getting that spot. Mofaz is both right wing, unappealing, and has a hunch of huge debts with Kadima.
Diskin is still reluctant to hop in so Labour have to decide between Mofaz and former MG Yadlin (who isn't that dovish as well). We might see a very funny thing when Meretz will have an ex general on the list (Eyal Ben Reuven) and Labour won't.

Only 38 candidates  in the Labour primaries with no new big names. Bahloul I mentioned earlier decided to try his luck there.

I think that with the new threshold and the mess the political map is in we might even see another election very soon.

[jaichind]

I thought Kadima will join the Labor-Hatnuah list.  What happen to that ?

[Vosem]

Is Mofaz a 'wanted' recruit? He was Defense Minister for four years, is not corrupt, and can claim that he played a role in ending the Second Intifada. His electoral record isn't the best, but surely that's a profile parties might look for?

[MalaspinaGold]

Trajtenberg is getting the spot people thought was going to Mofaz?

He'll probably get the second spot secured for Livni's people (which will mean we'll see Mitzna booted to a very unrealistic place). Mofaz is not quite there yet and from what I gather from friends in Labour there are many people there who do'n't want to see him getting that spot. Mofaz is both right wing, unappealing, and has a hunch of huge debts with Kadima.
Diskin is still reluctant to hop in so Labour have to decide between Mofaz and former MG Yadlin (who isn't that dovish as well). We might see a very funny thing when Meretz will have an ex general on the list (Eyal Ben Reuven) and Labour won't.

Only 38 candidates  in the Labour primaries with no new big names. Bahloul I mentioned earlier decided to try his luck there.

I think that with the new threshold and the mess the political map is in we might even see another election very soon.

What is the probability of this happening?
EDIT: Nvm, here's a Ynet article mentioning him running, along with Avirama Golan and Avi Dabush:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4602577,00.html

About Trajtenberg, I guess I see the reason for him to join with Labor-Livni rather than Kachlon- since Labor-Livni is much more likely to form a coalition than Kachlon, he is in a better position to unconditionally demand the finance ministry, especially since Kachlon will possibly angle for that position also.

Regarding Mitzna, is there a possibility that he might run with labor, rather than accept 25th place or whatever through Livni? It is his old party after all.

[Famous Mortimer]

I would actually think he had a much better chance at being Finance Minister with Kahlon.

Labor might form a coalition but they will need so many partners they are unlikely to have any of the big posts. Foreign, Defense, and Finance will all have to go to coalition partners.

[MalaspinaGold]

Stern breaks with Livni, he may decide to join another party...
http://www.timesofisrael.com/mk-stern-breaks-from-hatnua-blames-livni/

[Famous Mortimer]

More news on the lame duck Knesset:

Yisrael Hasson officially resigned and was replaced by the 6th person on the Kadima list, Yuval Zellner, a former Laborite best known for briefly replacing Tzipi Livni when she resigned after losing the Kadima leadership to Shaul Mofaz.

Former MKs Yohanan Plesner, Ronit Tirosh, and Shai Hermesh all opted not to bother taking the seat.

Also, and I'm surprised this didn't get more coverage, Binyamin Ben-Eliezer resigned for health reasons. It had been in the cards for a while but I'm surprised he didn't just finish his term.

The next person on the Labor list was appropriately Danny Atar, a protege of Ben-Eliezer. Like the Kadima members though, he opted not to take the seat and it was instead given to the next person on the list, Labor's top Arab Raleb Majadele. I wonder if he opted out for his own reasons or if Labor pressured him to get an Arab MK again.

[danny]

There's a Muslim running in the Jewish Home primaries who's attracted some attention named Anett Haskia: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/188477#.VIjK2mTF9As

Ironically, while she's originally from Acre, she moved to Kibbutz Yehiam, a place where in the last elections Meretz was the biggest party followed by Labour, Lapid, and Livni, with the right being almost non-existent. So an Arab moving into an all Jewish place, is going to be one of the only right wingers there.

[Hnv1]

A big corruption scandal involving Israel Beitenu (surprise surprise) with deputy minister Kirshenbaum, former minister Maszhinkov and many party politicos involved. Liberman is trying to break to the centre this might make him re-break to the right again

[jaichind]

Likud comptroller disqualifies Netanyahu from Likud leadership race; PM likely to appeal

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Likud-comptroller-disqualifies-Netanyahu-from-Likud-leadership-race-PM-likely-to-appeal-385611

Wow.  Now that's intra-party infighting.  One way or another this does not make Netanyahu look that good for the general election.

[danny]

Likud comptroller disqualifies Netanyahu from Likud leadership race; PM likely to appeal

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Likud-comptroller-disqualifies-Netanyahu-from-Likud-leadership-race-PM-likely-to-appeal-385611

Wow.  Now that's intra-party infighting.  One way or another this does not make Netanyahu look that good for the general election.

I doubt anything comes out of this, and assuming Bibi will run as usual, I don't think people will care.

[Vosem]

The actual Hatnuah members don't seem to be very enthusiastic about the agreement Livni has set up; both David Tzur and Amram Mitzna have announced over the past few days that they won't be seeking reelection; and Elazar Stern has already said that he would be seeking reelection with a party other than the new Labor-Hatnuah list (which it's increasingly clear is basically just Labor, with Trajtenberg having been recruited by Labor and promised one of Hatnuah's slots).