Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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  Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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Author Topic: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015  (Read 167514 times)
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #375 on: January 27, 2015, 08:23:40 PM »

So Kadima is effectively a Druze vote bank now? Remarkable.

Funnily enough, Kadima is apparently the first-ever majority-Jewish party with Knesset representation to be led by an Arab, even if that is right before its untimely doom.

...it's not really a Druze party of any kind, but putting Hasson in charge is very probably a gimmick to try to increase Druze support for the party. It might've worked with the old threshold, but I doubt they can get to 3.25% (though it seems Hasson may be negotiating with Kachlon; he might still be worth 1.5%-2% or so, which is not worthless).

The top four of the list (it goes on for a while, but everyone after #4 is hopelessly obscure and has no chance anyway):
1. Fmr MK Akram Hasson (2012-2013; Druze)
2. Fmr MK Doron Avital (2011-2013)
3. Fmr Givatayim Mayor Reuven Ben-Shahar
4. MK Yuval Zellner (2012-2013; 2014-present)

So officially Eyal Ben Reuven is a member of Hatnuah? From Meretz to Hatnuah...

I think Ben-Reuven is more concerned with his political career than his ideological beliefs.

Mofaz didn't resign the Knesset though, did he? Is Hasson going to be an MK for like a month?

Kadima won a lot of Druze votes in the last election. Also Mofaz beat Livni because a lot of Arab and Druze votes. I believe that's why Sibboleth made that comment. There is a history with Kadima and the Druze.
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Vosem
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« Reply #376 on: January 27, 2015, 08:48:48 PM »

No, I think Hasson will lead Mofaz and Zellner from outside the Knesset Tongue

And, yeah, there certainly is a history between Kadima and the Druze -- some of their best 2013 results were in Druze communities -- but it's still an exaggeration to call it a "Druze party".

Also, quote from Shaul Mofaz's not-running speech: "I am not an outstanding politician"
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #377 on: January 27, 2015, 08:50:46 PM »

Sure; that's why I wrote 'vote bank' rather than 'party' Grin
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #378 on: January 28, 2015, 12:23:57 AM »

Not the one to judge, but if Ben Reuven really wants a long career in politics, I'm not sure Livni's the one he should be going in with, considering some factors such as what happened to the last two big military men that wen with Livni, and indeed the person whose spot Ben Reuven just took.

I'm sure hnv1 has stronger thoughts than me though.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #379 on: January 28, 2015, 06:16:52 AM »

Not the one to judge, but if Ben Reuven really wants a long career in politics, I'm not sure Livni's the one he should be going in with, considering some factors such as what happened to the last two big military men that wen with Livni, and indeed the person whose spot Ben Reuven just took.

I'm sure hnv1 has stronger thoughts than me though.
I don't really mind his departure, as I stated earlier I don't like eg-generals in politics and I especially don't like them in my party. Though it is a bit disrespectful as he was granted a national convention seat about a month ago, but that's them ex-generals they've got an ego bigger than their brain.
I doubt the Livni party will hold after this election, Peretz will probably slide back to Labour at one point and if Ben Reuven wants to continue in politics he will have to do so as well.

It will be interesting to see what he does as an MK (as he's in the 24th spot I doubt he becomes a minister), ex-generals usually fail miserably as MKs.

Odeh is of the Ahmadi sect, a very small muslim sect whose members reside in Haifa.

BTW fun fact: because Likud hadn't held interior elections for years until now, Yoel Hassson was still chairman of Young Likud branch up until 2-3 months ago! that's despite moving 3 parties by then
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #380 on: January 28, 2015, 06:32:07 AM »

Like the Indian Ahmadis? Weird. Apparently there's only 2000 of them in Israel. Is he ethnically Indian?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #381 on: January 28, 2015, 07:30:28 AM »

Like the Indian Ahmadis? Weird. Apparently there's only 2000 of them in Israel. Is he ethnically Indian?
Doubt it, Doesn't have Indian traits. I think they originally came from Syria but I'm not sure.
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danny
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« Reply #382 on: January 28, 2015, 12:10:10 PM »

The Likud sagas are coming to an end. Bibi found two people to bring in number 11 will be Anat Berko, and number 23 will Limor Darash Samamian.

Hotovely beat Dichter by 110 vores in the recount and will be number 20, Dichter will be at 26.
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danny
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« Reply #383 on: January 28, 2015, 07:54:34 PM »

There will be 5,881,696 people with the right to vote, up from 5,656,705 in the 2013 elections. That means a rise of 3.977%.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #384 on: January 29, 2015, 01:53:52 AM »

And Ohana has announced he'll be resigning his spot on the list. A major embarrassment for Bennett, this is.
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danny
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« Reply #385 on: January 29, 2015, 01:56:27 AM »

And Ohana has announced he'll be resigning his spot on the list. A major embarrassment for Bennett, this is.

Basically the entire party other than Bennet was against him.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #386 on: January 29, 2015, 01:57:34 AM »

Two new polls

Channel 2
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Totally missed these post-Arab merger polls. 12 isn't a very big jump. It's only one more than they usually get. If they do that poorly, I can't imagine the alliance lasting long.
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danny
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« Reply #387 on: January 29, 2015, 02:04:41 AM »

Kalfa already cancelled his resignation and will return to number 18.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #388 on: January 29, 2015, 08:09:23 AM »

Bibi reserves the 11th spot to former minister and son-of Benni Begin

Dani Dayan announces he's leaving JH because of Bennets dirty tricks with the party list

Channel 10 poll had Liberman on 4 yesterday, Karma will be a darling if she makes Liberman stay out because of the threshold he raised
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danny
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« Reply #389 on: January 29, 2015, 11:06:11 AM »

Tali Pluskov, the mayor of Arad for Yisrael Beitenu, is joining Kulanu and will be number 6.
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danny
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« Reply #390 on: January 29, 2015, 11:16:00 AM »

It looks like the Kahanists and Yishai have come to an agreement and Baruch Marzel will be number 4, but Chetboun will leave in protest.
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danny
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« Reply #391 on: January 29, 2015, 11:17:10 AM »

UTJ submitted their list, which is basically the same as last time.
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ag
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« Reply #392 on: January 29, 2015, 11:17:57 AM »



Totally missed these post-Arab merger polls. 12 isn't a very big jump. It's only one more than they usually get. If they do that poorly, I can't imagine the alliance lasting long.

The alliance is not meant to last. It is a shotgun marriage, based on the new 3.25% threshold. If they went separately, every single one of them would be at risk of missing the threshold - and it would be a miracle if more than 2 passed it. So, without the alliance, they would not be getting even 10 seats between the four - possibly, none.

Politicians involved (with the possible exception of Ahmad Tibi) are not at all happy about having to ally. They were simply not given a choice.
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ag
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« Reply #393 on: January 29, 2015, 11:44:19 AM »


Channel 10 poll had Liberman on 4 yesterday, Karma will be a darling if she makes Liberman stay out because of the threshold he raised

It would be fun. Especially if he comes in at something like 3.2%, with some of his wasted vote electing an extra Arab Smiley
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DL
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« Reply #394 on: January 29, 2015, 12:11:29 PM »

Aren't Arab-Israelis actually something like 20% of the population of Israel? I realize that some of them vote for "Zionist parties" such as Meretz or Labour etc... but I think the vast majority of those who do vote vote for Arab parties meaning that if Arab-Israelis actually voted at the same rate as Jewish-Israelis - the Arab Alliance party would likely be getting something like 20 seats - which would have HUGE implications for government formation in Israel.

Any thoughts?
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ag
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« Reply #395 on: January 29, 2015, 12:31:24 PM »

Aren't Arab-Israelis actually something like 20% of the population of Israel? I realize that some of them vote for "Zionist parties" such as Meretz or Labour etc... but I think the vast majority of those who do vote vote for Arab parties meaning that if Arab-Israelis actually voted at the same rate as Jewish-Israelis - the Arab Alliance party would likely be getting something like 20 seats - which would have HUGE implications for government formation in Israel.

Any thoughts?

Well, yes, Arabs do not vote at the same rates as the Jews. Also, many Arabs do vote for Zionist parties. Also, "Arabs" here includes the Druze and the like, who vote for all sorts of parties. On the other hand, a few Jews vote for Hadash - though, at this point, far too few.

It would be interesting to see if the Arab turnout goes up - and if the pollsters would be able to take account of it beforehand.

And, yes, 20 MKs on the Arab slate would make government formation in Israel interesting.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #396 on: January 29, 2015, 12:42:48 PM »

The number of Arabs who still vote for Meretz and Labor would maybe equal one seat in the Knesset between them.

It's mostly that Arabs just don't vote.

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DL
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« Reply #397 on: January 29, 2015, 12:48:55 PM »

So in other words if Arab-Israelis would just get their act together and start voting en masse - they could prevent a monstrosity like Netanyahu from ever being able to form a government again. It could be like the impact that Black and Latino voters now have on American presidential politics!
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #398 on: January 29, 2015, 12:53:15 PM »

I had no idea at all that there were any Ahmadi in Israel.

So in other words if Arab-Israelis would just get their act together and start voting en masse - they could prevent a monstrosity like Netanyahu from ever being able to form a government again. It could be like the impact that Black and Latino voters now have on American presidential politics!

I think it's at least equally likely that mass Arab participation in the electoral process would lead to a further rightward shift in the Jewish vote.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #399 on: January 29, 2015, 01:04:28 PM »

20 seats for arab parties will force one of the following:
- Forced coalition between Labour-Likud with the arabs, Meretz, and extreme right in constant opposition. Likely
- Force Labour to consider an historic reach for them as partners (unlikely with current Labour politics and the current moode of Israeli public this government will be highly opposed). less likely
- narrow right wing governments with growing international pressure. Likely

Either way I think the right did not really think through the whole new threshold scheme and this election will have a ripple effect that is going to alter the slumbered political formation we had since the 70s of Jewish right-left divide.
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