Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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  Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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Author Topic: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015  (Read 167535 times)
Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #400 on: January 29, 2015, 01:09:32 PM »

I think if the Arabs got 20, Labor probably would ally with them but it would cost them votes in the next election. It would take them several cycles to recover. In the meantime, the Arabs would stand a good chance of coming in second, which would be pretty chaotic.
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danny
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« Reply #401 on: January 29, 2015, 01:10:17 PM »

Aren't Arab-Israelis actually something like 20% of the population of Israel? I realize that some of them vote for "Zionist parties" such as Meretz or Labour etc... but I think the vast majority of those who do vote vote for Arab parties meaning that if Arab-Israelis actually voted at the same rate as Jewish-Israelis - the Arab Alliance party would likely be getting something like 20 seats - which would have HUGE implications for government formation in Israel.

Any thoughts?

Arabs make up 20.7% of the population, and if a party got that many votes it would get about 27 seats, however:

1) 14% of those Arabs live in east Jerusalem, and almost none of them have citizenship so they can't vote.
2) 9% of those Arabs are Druze, a big majority of whom vote for Zionist parties.
3) A larger percent of Arabs are under the age of 18 and can't vote.
4) A minority of the rest of the Arabs vote for Zionist parties Labour, Meretz, Shas, Likud, in some Arab localities these parties get a significant number of votes.
5) The percent of Arabs who vote at all is lower, in the last elections it was 57% compared to 67% overall.
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danny
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« Reply #402 on: January 29, 2015, 01:45:48 PM »

The Last day for registration is very eventful:

Kalfa already cancelled his resignation and will return to number 18.
Update: Kalfa tried to return but was refused, and will be replace with the next place in Tkuma, Nachi Eyal.

It looks like the Kahanists and Yishai have come to an agreement and Baruch Marzel will be number 4, but Chetboun will leave in protest.

Update: Chetboun is back in number 2. Both him and Marzel are on the list.

Also, Nissim Zeev was kicked out of the Shas list, even though he was promised that he was in if he didn't join Yishai.
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danny
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« Reply #403 on: January 29, 2015, 01:55:19 PM »

Bad news for the joint list (Arab). Taleb Al Sana, a former MK for RAAM, will lead his own list that will compete with them for Arab votes. He won't pass the threshold but all the votes he gets will be instead of the joint list.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #404 on: January 29, 2015, 03:52:13 PM »

He did this last time, ended up returning to Raam-Taal.

It seems that Bibi gave slot 11 to Benny Begin. A lot of people turned him down.
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danny
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« Reply #405 on: January 29, 2015, 03:52:16 PM »

Bennet moved Anat Rot up to number 15 on the JH list, Rot was formerly in the Labour party and Peace Now (and was an advisor to Mitzna) before changing her politics.
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danny
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« Reply #406 on: January 29, 2015, 03:58:49 PM »

He did this last time, ended up returning to Raam-Taal.

It seems that Bibi gave slot 11 to Benny Begin. A lot of people turned him down.

It's not the same, last time he threatened to split but ended up being in the fifth spot (they got 4). This time the lists have already been submitted, and The Joint list has given one in without him, and he has given in his own list. At most he could theoretically drop out, but he can't be put on the Joint List in any case, so he will probably continue his run.
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ag
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« Reply #407 on: January 29, 2015, 04:32:12 PM »

Bad news for the joint list (Arab). Taleb Al Sana, a former MK for RAAM, will lead his own list that will compete with them for Arab votes. He won't pass the threshold but all the votes he gets will be instead of the joint list.

Does he have any independent support? Who would be voting for him?
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ag
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« Reply #408 on: January 29, 2015, 04:33:13 PM »

He did this last time, ended up returning to Raam-Taal.

It seems that Bibi gave slot 11 to Benny Begin. A lot of people turned him down.

It's not the same, last time he threatened to split but ended up being in the fifth spot (they got 4). This time the lists have already been submitted, and The Joint list has given one in without him, and he has given in his own list. At most he could theoretically drop out, but he can't be put on the Joint List in any case, so he will probably continue his run.

Well, the question is, if he has a reliable personal vote or not. There will be a strong communal pressure to ignore him otherwise.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #409 on: January 29, 2015, 04:38:48 PM »

He'll probably get some Bedouin votes, not much otherwise. People who don't like UAL will probably either vote Zionist Camp/Meretz or stay home.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #410 on: January 30, 2015, 12:47:02 AM »

Could one of the Israelis expand on the Temple Mount issue?

It was the main stumbling block for an agreement between Yishai and the Kachists.

I know it's the moderate position not to let Jews pray at the Temple Mount and the extremist one to let them do so.

This is a case where the extremist side really makes sense though. It's a free country and everyone should be able to go to whatever historic site and do whatever they want as long as they don't damage it.
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danny
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« Reply #411 on: January 30, 2015, 01:11:41 AM »

Could one of the Israelis expand on the Temple Mount issue?

It was the main stumbling block for an agreement between Yishai and the Kachists.

I know it's the moderate position not to let Jews pray at the Temple Mount and the extremist one to let them do so.

This is a case where the extremist side really makes sense though. It's a free country and everyone should be able to go to whatever historic site and do whatever they want as long as they don't damage it.

There are two groups that oppose going to the temple mount for different reasons.
The first is the "moderate" side that opposes going to the temple mount because they don't want to anger the Arabs and think going there will cause riots, or simply the fact that the kind of Jews who go to the temple mount are eople whom the moderate side is automatically against everything they do.

The second is a religious view that it is religiously prohibited for Jews to go to the temple mount. This is the problem in the negotiations, since Chetboun and and his Rabbi Tau are strongly supportive of this view.

I personally agree with the "extremist" side for the same reason you gave despite being secular and having no desire to pray anywhere, much less go to the temple mount to do it.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #412 on: January 30, 2015, 01:18:06 AM »

I assume the religious objection is something like, Jews shouldn't pray there until the Third Temple is built?
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #413 on: January 30, 2015, 01:18:44 AM »

Could one of the Israelis expand on the Temple Mount issue?

It was the main stumbling block for an agreement between Yishai and the Kachists.

I know it's the moderate position not to let Jews pray at the Temple Mount and the extremist one to let them do so.

This is a case where the extremist side really makes sense though. It's a free country and everyone should be able to go to whatever historic site and do whatever they want as long as they don't damage it.
The seculars try to avoid the Temple Mount issue, the Haredim strongly oppose it, the Dati Leumi generally support it.

The genesis of Haredi opposition is a decision by Rav Yosef that since no one knows where the Holy of Holies once stood, one should not risk the chance of accidentally stepping in that spot. Yishai's mentor/chaperone Rav Mazuz helped Yosef formulate that decision.

The reason that the seculars oppose it is that all hell might break loose in the Arab Sector/West Bank. The Second Intifada was started when Ariel Sharon made his own pilgrimage to the Mount. Unless you're a third temple fanatic (of which there are a few- Yehuda Glick is an example), you have no reason to support it otherwise.

Right now there is a compromise where Jews can visit the Mount, but can only pray silently. Any attempt to expel the Waqf could lead to war with the Jordanians.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #414 on: January 30, 2015, 01:26:43 AM »

That makes sense. I know Yishai is an establishment guy but I had a hard time believing he would oppose people going to the Temple Mount for the sake of the Arabs.
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danny
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« Reply #415 on: January 30, 2015, 01:31:44 AM »

That makes sense. I know Yishai is an establishment guy but I had a hard time believing he would oppose people going to the Temple Mount for the sake of the Arabs.

The problem was more with Chetboun than with Yishai though this seems to be because Yishai is more realistic and realised that he needed the votes, while Chetboun is probably delusional and thought that they are easily passing the threshold anyway and don't need the Kahanists
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #416 on: January 30, 2015, 02:39:32 AM »

Wait, does Chetboun also oppose the Temple Mount shenanigans?
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danny
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« Reply #417 on: January 30, 2015, 02:55:40 AM »

Wait, does Chetboun also oppose the Temple Mount shenanigans?

Chetboun follows Rabbi Tau who is against going to the temple mount. Rabbi Tau believes that adhering to state laws is a religious virtue of itself which puts him very much against kahannists and is the reason why he is now refusing to support the new party that has Marzel in it.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #418 on: January 30, 2015, 07:14:53 AM »

Could one of the Israelis expand on the Temple Mount issue?

It was the main stumbling block for an agreement between Yishai and the Kachists.

I know it's the moderate position not to let Jews pray at the Temple Mount and the extremist one to let them do so.

This is a case where the extremist side really makes sense though. It's a free country and everyone should be able to go to whatever historic site and do whatever they want as long as they don't damage it.
So in the spirit of this 'freedom' I'm allowed to walk into any church in America and declare my right to pray there?

Tomer Perisco (Jewish religion scholar) already wrote a great essay about this, they want to pray there as a nationalistic sign of sovereignty, religious freedom has nothing to do with it.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #419 on: January 30, 2015, 07:24:25 AM »

Could one of the Israelis expand on the Temple Mount issue?

It was the main stumbling block for an agreement between Yishai and the Kachists.

I know it's the moderate position not to let Jews pray at the Temple Mount and the extremist one to let them do so.

This is a case where the extremist side really makes sense though. It's a free country and everyone should be able to go to whatever historic site and do whatever they want as long as they don't damage it.
So in the spirit of this 'freedom' I'm allowed to walk into any church in America and declare my right to pray there?

Tomer Perisco (Jewish religion scholar) already wrote a great essay about this, they want to pray there as a nationalistic sign of sovereignty, religious freedom has nothing to do with it.

Well if it's a church that was built on top of a synagogue...

It should be like the Hagia Sophia.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #420 on: January 30, 2015, 07:29:04 AM »

Could one of the Israelis expand on the Temple Mount issue?

It was the main stumbling block for an agreement between Yishai and the Kachists.

I know it's the moderate position not to let Jews pray at the Temple Mount and the extremist one to let them do so.

This is a case where the extremist side really makes sense though. It's a free country and everyone should be able to go to whatever historic site and do whatever they want as long as they don't damage it.
So in the spirit of this 'freedom' I'm allowed to walk into any church in America and declare my right to pray there?

Tomer Perisco (Jewish religion scholar) already wrote a great essay about this, they want to pray there as a nationalistic sign of sovereignty, religious freedom has nothing to do with it.

Well if it's a church that was built on top of a synagogue...

It should be like the Hagia Sophia.
"on top of a synagogue"...built on top of ruins soe 600 years later. There is no religious reason to pray there and whoever wants to pray has that wall of Herod's rocks. Let us not forger that the goal of those fanatics is to destroy the muslim temples and rebuild the Jewish ones there, I don't see any reason to encourage them.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #421 on: January 30, 2015, 02:44:09 PM »

Last few polls looks like Netanyahu has regained some lost ground. Hezbollah could've helped. Sigh...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #422 on: January 30, 2015, 02:54:19 PM »

Interestingly enough it looks like leakage from Jewish Home; connected to recent tehdrama, or just the usual ups and downs of polling in a country where that will never be easy?
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danny
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« Reply #423 on: January 30, 2015, 02:59:13 PM »

Interestingly enough it looks like leakage from Jewish Home; connected to recent tehdrama, or just the usual ups and downs of polling in a country where that will never be easy?

The last few days were bad for Jewish home, lots of infighting and a weak looking Bennet, combined with a viable alternative to its right. It will be very hard to get back to the 17-18 seats they were gettibg earlier on.
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FredLindq
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« Reply #424 on: January 30, 2015, 04:18:01 PM »

Is there any tactical voting in Israel i.e. Likud voters voting for Yishai so that they can pass the threshold?!
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