Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[ag]

Is there any tactical voting in Israel i.e. Likud voters voting for Yishai so that they can pass the threshold?!

This is a sort of a question, that can only be speculated on. Israel used to have one of the lowest electoral thresholds anywhere - until some 20 years ago it was 1%. Obviously, with the threshold so low, nobody cared about tactical voting. They raised it gradually, first to 1.5%, then to 2%. Suddenly, this time it jumps to 3.25%. How this will work out, nobody knows. So far, there is obvious tactical coalition formation (at least, on the Arab side). The rest... New electoral systems take time to get adjusted to.

[Famous Mortimer]

So the top 4 spots on the Yishai/Yachad/HaAm Itanu/Otzma Yehudit list are:

1 Eli Yishai (MK, former Shas)
2 Yoni Chetboun (MK, former Jewish Home)
3 Michael Ayash (appears to be a confidant of Yishai)
4 Baruch Marzel (Otzma Yehudit, former Kach)

Looks like Otzma didn't get much out of this deal since it's unlikely this list will win 4 seats. Also, members of Likud would be stupid to tactically vote for this list since if it somehow did win 4 seats, Netanyahu wouldn't be able to form a coalition with them because of Marzel's presence.

So is Ben-Ari even supporting this list?

[danny]

Looks like Otzma didn't get much out of this deal since it's unlikely this list will win 4 seats. Also, members of Likud would be stupid to tactically vote for this list since if it somehow did win 4 seats, Netanyahu wouldn't be able to form a coalition with them because of Marzel's presence.

The threshold is basically 4 seats, so if they don'y get 4 they will get 0 anyway.

 Also, members of Likud would be stupid to tactically vote for this list since if it somehow did win 4 seats, Netanyahu wouldn't be able to form a coalition with them because of Marzel's presence.

It was already agreed that the moment the elections are over the two will become separate and Marzel will become his own faction. Presumably Yishai would enter the coalition with Bibi and Mazel will remain in opposition.

So is Ben-Ari even supporting this list?

Of course, Ben-Ari and Marzel are essentially the same. Originally Marzel was the one that was supposed to be in the Knesset, but the other members of the National Union objected because they considered him too extreme, which led to Ben-Ari's placement. This time The complaint was that Ben-Ari goes to the temple mount, so he was replaced with Marzel who doesn't go there (but supports the right of others to do so). These two don't do any political moves separately from the other, so if Marzel is there you can be sure that Ben-Ari supports it.

[Famous Mortimer]

Are you sure about the 4 seats thing? I thought I read somewhere it was 3.

[danny]

Are you sure about the 4 seats thing? I thought I read somewhere it was 3.

It's 3.25%, which is technically 3.9 seats in theory. But that is in a case where all votes go to parties that get over the threshold. since that won't be the case it will be a little higher than 3.9 seats. So the odds of getting in with just 3 seats is minuscule.

[Famous Mortimer]

What ended up happening with the soccer guy's spot on the Jewish Home list? Did they just bump everyone up a space?

[danny]

What ended up happening with the soccer guy's spot on the Jewish Home list? Did they just bump everyone up a space?

Yes

[FredLindq]

Will Otzma Yehudit add votes to the list or will people be frightened by its presence?!

[Hnv1]

Will Otzma Yehudit add votes to the list or will people be frightened by its presence?!

They are not really going for any sector that will be frightened by it. They're going for the fringe of the Haredi Sephardi society (poor and right wing), the right wing Hassidis (Habad, and etc.), and those national-religious who view Bennet as too moderate and not religious enough.

I don't rate their odds that high to get in but we'll see. Regardless if they only get in with 4 Marzel can't split as the law requires a third of the faction.

[Famous Mortimer]

Other fun irrelevancies:

The number 2 on Taleb el-Sana's Arab List is former MK Muhamad Kanan. Kanan was a member of United Arab List who left to establish the Arab National Party, which only made the ballot in one election where it dropped out and endorsed Balad before voting day. He was also involved in the attempt to create an "Arab Center Party" which hoped to draft Labor MK Raleb Majadele as its leader. When Majadele declined, the Arab Center Party also folded into Balad.

I don't think there's anyone else remotely well known on his list.

[danny]

I don't rate their odds that high to get in but we'll see. Regardless if they only get in with 4 Marzel can't split as the law requires a third of the faction.

I don't know this, but I always assumed that the law was only a problem if the two sides don't agree. If both sides agree would it still be a problem?

[Hnv1]

I don't rate their odds that high to get in but we'll see. Regardless if they only get in with 4 Marzel can't split as the law requires a third of the faction.

I don't know this, but I always assumed that the law was only a problem if the two sides don't agree. If both sides agree would it still be a problem?

Not sure about mutual consent I checked the laws and there's nothing about it. According to the current law (Amend. 39 2012) you need a third of the faction to have it done. They could do a legal trick by splitting 2-2 and then the other half will re-split and leave Marzel alone

[ag]

I don't rate their odds that high to get in but we'll see. Regardless if they only get in with 4 Marzel can't split as the law requires a third of the faction.

I don't know this, but I always assumed that the law was only a problem if the two sides don't agree. If both sides agree would it still be a problem?

Not sure about mutual consent I checked the laws and there's nothing about it. According to the current law (Amend. 39 2012) you need a third of the faction to have it done. They could do a legal trick by splitting 2-2 and then the other half will re-split and leave Marzel alone

Couldn't the majority split on its own, leaving Marzel alone?

[Famous Mortimer]

Or couldn't they just split in reality but not officially?

[Zanas]

How many do you need to establish an official parliamentary group in the Knesset ?

[Famous Mortimer]

How many do you need to establish an official parliamentary group in the Knesset ?

One third if you're breaking away. I don't think there's any limit in terms of parties that get elected but as danny said, you can no longer elect less than 4 people at a time. There have been one man groups in the past.

[danny]

How many do you need to establish an official parliamentary group in the Knesset ?

One is enough, so Marzel should be fine becoming one. It happened recently already when Amsalem left Shas and became a faction of his own.

[Famous Mortimer]

Actually yeah, I think the one third thing is to get funding. Marzel could be his own group but he wouldn't get any government funds next next election.

[danny]

How many do you need to establish an official parliamentary group in the Knesset ?

One third if you're breaking away. I don't think there's any limit in terms of parties that get elected but as danny said, you can no longer elect less than 4 people at a time. There have been one man groups in the past.

Technically the threshold is only for the percent of the vote and there is no law on how many have to be elected. if you only put one person on the list only he can be elected. This happened once when Platto Sharon's party got enough votes for two seats, but since the party only submitted himself on the list only he was elected, and the rest of the votes were wasted.

[Vosem]

Jeremy's Knesset Insider took an average of all the polls of the past week (though he added a disclaimer saying there were significant differences in polls from before and after the Eli Ohana saga, which was midweek, so to some extent the electorate has "already moved on"), and came up with (rounding to the nearest whole number):

Zionist Union 25
Likud 24
Jewish Home 15
Wamab 12
Yesh Atid 9
Kulanu 8
United Torah Judaism 7
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 5
Meretz 5
Ha'am Itanu 3

Ha'am Itanu averages 3 seats in polling, but they also average a popular vote figure below the threshold (though most were polls were before the merger with Otzma, so they may be above the threshold by now). Removing them would give a seat to the three parties closest to a seat -- Likud, Yesh Atid, and Yisrael Beiteinu. Like so:

Zionist Union 25
Likud 25
Jewish Home 15
Wamab 12
Yesh Atid 10
Kulanu 8
United Torah Judaism 7
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 6
Meretz 5

...which seems to be, basically, where we stood about Thursday morning, and still a fairly good approximation of where we stand now.

[DavidB.]

Thanks for this, Vosem. Knessetjeremy is truly a lifesaver for addicts of Israeli politics abroad

I guess (= hope) that Yachad-Otzma will reach the threshold in this week's polls. I'd hate to see so many right-wing votes spilled, votes that are probably even crucial for the formation of a coalition.

Poster ads for Yachad are running on a lot of buses in Jerusalem, but it seems like some people (Shas/Deri supporters?) didn't like that so much - most of these ads are partly ripped off the buses.

[Famous Mortimer]

The Arab party is actually just called the Joint List. Wamab is their two letter abbreviation that will appear on the ballot.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, at the last minute, Kadima decided not to file their list.

[DavidB.]

Also, at the last minute, Kadima decided not to file their list.

Because their second MP, Akram Hasson, joined Kulanu.

[Famous Mortimer]

Did he get a spot on the list? He didn't get a realistic one.