Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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  Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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Author Topic: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015  (Read 167526 times)
Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas
Ray Goldfield
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« Reply #525 on: February 09, 2015, 02:40:34 PM »

Since when are people putting Kulanu on the left "bloc"? I was under the impression Kachlon was center-right and was more likely to make a deal with Netanyahu than Herzog.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #526 on: February 09, 2015, 03:32:23 PM »

Why do people have so much trouble with this? "BLOCS" ARE NOT A REAL THING. THEY ARE NOT OFFICIAL.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #527 on: February 09, 2015, 05:20:16 PM »

We'll only know who's willing to deal with whoever when it actually happens. It's Israel, you know, not Denmark.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #528 on: February 09, 2015, 05:54:47 PM »
« Edited: February 09, 2015, 06:07:46 PM by MalaspinaGold »

To help everyone out, here's an exhaustive list of groups who will NOT sit in a coalition together.
Arabs and Likud/Bayit Yehudi/Lieberman/Racists
Meretz and same
Labor and Racists
Likud and Marzel

Any other combination is up for grabs. And don't let any politician tell you otherwise.

EDIT: This hasn't been widely discussed, but apparently the Northern Islamic Movement has ended its call for boycott of the elections for the first time ever. Israelis, do you know how many seats this might net the Joint Arab list?
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Vosem
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« Reply #529 on: February 09, 2015, 08:19:14 PM »
« Edited: February 14, 2015, 02:45:42 PM by Vosem »

Knesset Jeremy is out with his average of the past week:

February 1-7, 2015 polling average:
Likud (Netanyahu) 25
Zionist Union (Herzog) 24
Jewish Home (Bennett) 13
Joint List (Odeh) 12
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 10
Kulanu (Kahlon) 8
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Shas (Deri) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 5
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

If there're notable trends to be pointed to, Yahad is now consistently above the threshold; Likud is gaining at the expense of Jewish Home and Yesh Atid is gaining at the expense of the Zionist Union. Of course, these are oversimplifications and much more is going on than this. Netanyahu's Likud has actually taken an outright lead, as opposed to a tie or narrow trailing, in Jeremy's average for the first time in several months; of course, Netanyahu's on track to stay PM regardless of whether his party narrowly beats or narrowly loses to Herzog's.
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EPG
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« Reply #530 on: February 10, 2015, 03:24:48 PM »

Are there any substantial divides that would preclude a Likud-Zionist Union core to the next government? If Likud defeats the Zionist Union, isn't that very likely?
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #531 on: February 10, 2015, 06:21:42 PM »

The two sides hate each other, but that hasn't precluded Likud-Labor coalitions in the past...
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ag
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« Reply #532 on: February 10, 2015, 08:56:35 PM »

The two sides hate each other, but that hasn't precluded Likud-Labor coalitions in the past...

If I were deciding for Labor, and such a coalition were for some reason desirable, I would propose, as a compromise, that the PM be anybody other than the two leaders. Netaniyahu as the PM has broken too many partners.  Make him the tourism minister.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #533 on: February 10, 2015, 08:58:39 PM »

Also, apparently Zionist Union waffled on Zoabi, saying they'l support whatever the committee decides.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #534 on: February 10, 2015, 10:00:22 PM »

Are there any substantial divides that would preclude a Likud-Zionist Union core to the next government? If Likud defeats the Zionist Union, isn't that very likely?

Between Herzog and Netanyahu, no. Between the parties bases, huge. Labor would crash in the polls and Herzog would face a primary within 2 years.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #535 on: February 10, 2015, 11:03:50 PM »

This is Labor we're talking about. Herzog will get a primary regardless.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #536 on: February 13, 2015, 02:02:04 AM »

The two sides hate each other, but that hasn't precluded Likud-Labor coalitions in the past...

If I were deciding for Labor, and such a coalition were for some reason desirable, I would propose, as a compromise, that the PM be anybody other than the two leaders. Netaniyahu as the PM has broken too many partners.  Make him the tourism minister.

To what extent is Likud governed by Netanyahu's personality? I would imagine that that might pose a problem.
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ag
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« Reply #537 on: February 14, 2015, 01:31:22 AM »

The two sides hate each other, but that hasn't precluded Likud-Labor coalitions in the past...

If I were deciding for Labor, and such a coalition were for some reason desirable, I would propose, as a compromise, that the PM be anybody other than the two leaders. Netaniyahu as the PM has broken too many partners.  Make him the tourism minister.

To what extent is Likud governed by Netanyahu's personality? I would imagine that that might pose a problem.

I was jesting.
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ag
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« Reply #538 on: February 14, 2015, 01:32:26 AM »

So, in the latest polls the Joint List is starting to inch towards 13 seats.  Any chance they get 14?
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ag
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« Reply #539 on: February 14, 2015, 01:37:44 AM »

Also, apparently Zionist Union waffled on Zoabi, saying they'l support whatever the committee decides.

They voted to ban her in the CEC. Both she and Marzel are, in fact, banned. The appeal goes to the High Court.
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danny
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« Reply #540 on: February 14, 2015, 01:46:47 AM »

Also, apparently Zionist Union waffled on Zoabi, saying they'l support whatever the committee decides.

They voted to ban her in the CEC. Both she and Marzel are, in fact, banned. The appeal goes to the High Court.

They originally said they were for banning Zoabi, then changed their minds and said they would wait for the opinion of the attorney general. The attorney general then came out against banning her, but they voted to ban here anyway...
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danny
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« Reply #541 on: February 14, 2015, 01:48:17 AM »

So, in the latest polls the Joint List is starting to inch towards 13 seats.  Any chance they get 14?
14 is possible, it depends mostly on turnout, but I wouldn't trust the polls in terms of gauging this.
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ag
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« Reply #542 on: February 14, 2015, 02:05:43 AM »

So, in the latest polls the Joint List is starting to inch towards 13 seats.  Any chance they get 14?
14 is possible, it depends mostly on turnout, but I wouldn't trust the polls in terms of gauging this.

It would be a true poetic justice if the Liberman crowd gets 3.24% with their elimination resulting in extra seat for the Arabs Smiley
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Vosem
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« Reply #543 on: February 14, 2015, 11:10:33 PM »

Knesset Jeremy is out with his new average today, for the week of February 8-14, 2015. Unfortunately, they only add up to 118 seats, with 4 parties being very close to gaining one more seat -- Likud, Jewish Home, Joint List, and Yahad. I used last week's polls as tiebreakers, so the extra seats went to Likud and JH.

February 8-14, 2015 polling average:
Likud (Netanyahu) 25
Zionist Union (Herzog) 23
Jewish Home (Bennett) 13
Joint List (Odeh) 12
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 10
Kulanu (Kahlon) 8
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Shas (Deri) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 6
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

The only change from last week's average is that Zionist Union lost a seat (the 24th) to Yisrael Beiteinu (the 6th) -- specifically, Eyal Ben-Reuven to Hamad Amar. We can say therefore, that at least for the time being, YB's slide in the polls has halted and they may have hit a floor. Not much else to be said.
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Vosem
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« Reply #544 on: February 16, 2015, 06:19:59 PM »

Minister of Pensioner Affairs, MK from Bayit Yehudi, and author of children's books (Sad) Uri Orbach passed away this morning of a hematologic condition. He was 54 years old -- far too young. On the Jewish Home list for 2015, everyone below slot 7, which he had, will be bumped up a slot. It isn't clear yet who will get his Knesset seat, and his Minister post will probably remain vacant until after the elections.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #545 on: February 17, 2015, 04:19:44 AM »

File this under "so horrendous it is hilarious"
http://972mag.com/watch-the-most-anti-semitic-israeli-cartoon-ever-made/102698/
I think we've hit peak irony...
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Hnv1
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« Reply #546 on: February 17, 2015, 06:38:48 AM »

Well here are the results from ballot box last time around:
YA - 22%
Likud Beitenu - 20%
Labour - 19%
Meretz - 11%
Livni - 8%
JH - 7%
Kadima - 3%
Eretz Hadasha - 2%
rest are insignificant. fits pretty well with the demographics.

The whole precinct:
YA - 24.25%
Labour - 21.67%
Likud - 18.88%
Meretz - 10.6%
Livni - 8.45%
JH - 7.16%
Kadima - 2.21%
the rest are under the threshold
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danny
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« Reply #547 on: February 17, 2015, 09:01:10 AM »

Well here are the results from ballot box last time around:
YA - 22%
Likud Beitenu - 20%
Labour - 19%
Meretz - 11%
Livni - 8%
JH - 7%
Kadima - 3%
Eretz Hadasha - 2%
rest are insignificant. fits pretty well with the demographics.

The whole precinct:
YA - 24.25%
Labour - 21.67%
Likud - 18.88%
Meretz - 10.6%
Livni - 8.45%
JH - 7.16%
Kadima - 2.21%
the rest are under the threshold
You didn't mention where this is, do you mean that it's your precinct?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #548 on: February 17, 2015, 09:33:40 AM »

I've read something recently that Likud is out with a fearmongering TV ad, showing an Islamic State truck with the Labour logo on it and the terrorists asking where the road to Jerusalem is or something ...

Not that I understand anything what they say, but is there a YouTube link ?
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ag
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« Reply #549 on: February 17, 2015, 09:34:31 AM »


Israelis hate the Jews. What else is new?

Even before Israel was founded they appealed to British authorities to ban Yiddish-language press. Frankly, it is extremely hard for me to see the reasons for the rosy view of my fellow diaspora Jews of this nation of uniformed ispravniks and beard-cutters.
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