Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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  Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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Author Topic: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015  (Read 167504 times)
danny
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« Reply #550 on: February 17, 2015, 09:46:51 AM »

I've read something recently that Likud is out with a fearmongering TV ad, showing an Islamic State truck with the Labour logo on it and the terrorists asking where the road to Jerusalem is or something ...

Not that I understand anything what they say, but is there a YouTube link ?

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10152711679142076&id=268108602075&fs=5

The car doesn't have a Labour logo,  it says anyone but Bibi.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #551 on: February 17, 2015, 09:51:30 AM »

I've read something recently that Likud is out with a fearmongering TV ad, showing an Islamic State truck with the Labour logo on it and the terrorists asking where the road to Jerusalem is or something ...

Not that I understand anything what they say, but is there a YouTube link ?

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10152711679142076&id=268108602075&fs=5

The car doesn't have a Labour logo,  it says anyone but Bibi.

It says you have to log into Facebook to watch the video.

I don't use this crappy site.

Do you also have a real link ? YouTube maybe ?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #552 on: February 17, 2015, 10:02:03 AM »

I've read something recently that Likud is out with a fearmongering TV ad, showing an Islamic State truck with the Labour logo on it and the terrorists asking where the road to Jerusalem is or something ...

Not that I understand anything what they say, but is there a YouTube link ?

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10152711679142076&id=268108602075&fs=5

The car doesn't have a Labour logo,  it says anyone but Bibi.

It says you have to log into Facebook to watch the video.

I don't use this crappy site.

Do you also have a real link ? YouTube maybe ?

Found it, by typing in "Likud ad".

I thought it would be harder to find because of the Hebrew writing.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #553 on: February 17, 2015, 03:05:24 PM »


Israelis hate the Jews. What else is new?

Even before Israel was founded they appealed to British authorities to ban Yiddish-language press. Frankly, it is extremely hard for me to see the reasons for the rosy view of my fellow diaspora Jews of this nation of uniformed ispravniks and beard-cutters.

And, right now, it's quite clear than Netanyahu would do anything to increase immigration to Israel, including endangering Jews in Europe.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #554 on: February 17, 2015, 03:49:45 PM »
« Edited: February 17, 2015, 03:51:24 PM by Hnv1 »

Well here are the results from ballot box last time around:
YA - 22%
Likud Beitenu - 20%
Labour - 19%
Meretz - 11%
Livni - 8%
JH - 7%
Kadima - 3%
Eretz Hadasha - 2%
rest are insignificant. fits pretty well with the demographics.

The whole precinct:
YA - 24.25%
Labour - 21.67%
Likud - 18.88%
Meretz - 10.6%
Livni - 8.45%
JH - 7.16%
Kadima - 2.21%
the rest are under the threshold
You didn't mention where this is, do you mean that it's your precinct?
Yeah, this is in a Carmel neighborhood in Haifa. What was your area like last time around?
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danny
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« Reply #555 on: February 17, 2015, 04:20:06 PM »
« Edited: February 17, 2015, 05:11:26 PM by danny »

Yeah, this is in a Carmel neighborhood in Haifa. What was your area like last time around?

Mine is in Kiryat Yovel, Jerusalem.

Ballot box:

JH: 20%
Likud Beitenu: 19%
UTJ: 13%
Labour: 11%
Shas: 9%
YA: 8%
Meretz: 5%
Am Shalem: 3%
Kadima: 2%

Kiryat Yovel as a whole:

Likud Beitenu: 26.5%
Labour: 12.2%
JH: 12.1%
YA: 10.8%
Shas: 9.9%
Meretz: 8.2%
UTJ: 6.2%
Livni: 3.5%
Otzma: 3.3%
Am Shalem: 2.1%
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Gali
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« Reply #556 on: February 18, 2015, 05:15:10 AM »

File this under "so horrendous it is hilarious"

I think we've hit peak irony...

Nothing amusing about it, just the settlers inciting against  the left, same as they did with Rabin , and we all know what that led to .

 Benny Katzover = Gush Emunim
Gush Emunim = Elon Moreh
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Hnv1
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« Reply #557 on: February 18, 2015, 08:06:37 AM »

Well a general Haifa poll conducted came out with:
Labour - 22
Likud - 22
Kachlon - 16
Lapid -15
Meretz - 8
JH - 8
Liberman - 6
United list - 4
Shas - 4
undecided - 11

Makes sense and fits with city's demographics  (though I think they underpolled the Arabic vote)
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ag
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« Reply #558 on: February 18, 2015, 09:17:32 PM »

Zoabi and Marzel reinstated by the Supreme Court.
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danny
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« Reply #559 on: February 18, 2015, 09:20:49 PM »

Zoabi and Marzel reinstated by the Supreme Court.

As usual.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #560 on: February 20, 2015, 08:09:48 AM »

Haaretz runs an interesting poll showing 70% of Arab voters care more about economic matters than the conflict. Over 60% thinks the joint list should be a part of the coalition (28% say in any, 30% say only with Herzog, and 3% say only with Bibi). Most rate the performance of Arab MKs low.

Voting wise the Arab voters divide as such:
66.9% - Joint list
5.7% - Labour
4.3% - Meretz
2.4% - Likud
Liberman, Kachlon, Taleb A'snaa party - all 1.2%
the rest are marginal

The poll also indicates the % of voters will rise to 62.4%
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ag
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« Reply #561 on: February 20, 2015, 11:53:44 AM »

Haaretz runs an interesting poll showing 70% of Arab voters care more about economic matters than the conflict. Over 60% thinks the joint list should be a part of the coalition (28% say in any, 30% say only with Herzog, and 3% say only with Bibi). Most rate the performance of Arab MKs low.

Voting wise the Arab voters divide as such:
66.9% - Joint list
5.7% - Labour
4.3% - Meretz
2.4% - Likud
Liberman, Kachlon, Taleb A'snaa party - all 1.2%
the rest are marginal

The poll also indicates the % of voters will rise to 62.4%


Would be interesting to see those numbers sans the Druze.
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DL
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« Reply #562 on: February 20, 2015, 01:11:52 PM »


The poll also indicates the % of (Arab) voters will rise to 62.4%


What was the Arab turnout in the last election and what is the comparable turnout estimate among Jewish Israelis?
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ag
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« Reply #563 on: February 20, 2015, 02:15:06 PM »


The poll also indicates the % of (Arab) voters will rise to 62.4%


What was the Arab turnout in the last election and what is the comparable turnout estimate among Jewish Israelis?

Overall it was 63.7%, but only about 56% among the Arabs (so, among the Jews it must have been a bit over 64%).
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danny
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« Reply #564 on: February 20, 2015, 02:17:52 PM »


The poll also indicates the % of (Arab) voters will rise to 62.4%


What was the Arab turnout in the last election and what is the comparable turnout estimate among Jewish Israelis?

Overall it was 63.7%, but only about 56% among the Arabs (so, among the Jews it must have been a bit over 64%).


The 63.7% was for 2009, in 2013 it was up to 67.77% (and a little higher for Jews).
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ag
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« Reply #565 on: February 20, 2015, 02:25:53 PM »


The poll also indicates the % of (Arab) voters will rise to 62.4%


What was the Arab turnout in the last election and what is the comparable turnout estimate among Jewish Israelis?

Overall it was 63.7%, but only about 56% among the Arabs (so, among the Jews it must have been a bit over 64%).


The 63.7% was for 2009, in 2013 it was up to 67.77% (and a little higher for Jews).

Sorry, my fault. But it was still only estimated 56% for Arabs. In 2009 it had been  53%.
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ag
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« Reply #566 on: February 20, 2015, 02:40:33 PM »

Haaretz runs an interesting poll showing 70% of Arab voters care more about economic matters than the conflict. Over 60% thinks the joint list should be a part of the coalition (28% say in any, 30% say only with Herzog, and 3% say only with Bibi). Most rate the performance of Arab MKs low.

Voting wise the Arab voters divide as such:
66.9% - Joint list
5.7% - Labour
4.3% - Meretz
2.4% - Likud
Liberman, Kachlon, Taleb A'snaa party - all 1.2%
the rest are marginal

The poll also indicates the % of voters will rise to 62.4%


The more interesting finding of the poll is, that if only those Arabs who say they will vote for the Joint list do so, this will ammount to 12.4 seats. Given that, at least, a few Jews will vote for it as well, this is pretty much certain to give them 13 seats. And that is not even counting on any of the undecideds breaking their way - might get to 14. It would be interesting if the Joint List comes out the third largest slate to get in.

In fact, if one thinks about it, the 66.9% number is staggering. Without the Druze this would be close to 70%. Of those who have decided how to vote this is well over three quarters.  Israeli Arab community, that back in 1970s and even 1980s overwhelmingly voted for mainstream parties is incerasingly seceding into its own polity.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #567 on: February 20, 2015, 07:03:25 PM »

Haaretz runs an interesting poll showing 70% of Arab voters care more about economic matters than the conflict. Over 60% thinks the joint list should be a part of the coalition (28% say in any, 30% say only with Herzog, and 3% say only with Bibi). Most rate the performance of Arab MKs low.

Voting wise the Arab voters divide as such:
66.9% - Joint list
5.7% - Labour
4.3% - Meretz
2.4% - Likud
Liberman, Kachlon, Taleb A'snaa party - all 1.2%
the rest are marginal

The poll also indicates the % of voters will rise to 62.4%


The more interesting finding of the poll is, that if only those Arabs who say they will vote for the Joint list do so, this will ammount to 12.4 seats. Given that, at least, a few Jews will vote for it as well, this is pretty much certain to give them 13 seats. And that is not even counting on any of the undecideds breaking their way - might get to 14. It would be interesting if the Joint List comes out the third largest slate to get in.

In fact, if one thinks about it, the 66.9% number is staggering. Without the Druze this would be close to 70%. Of those who have decided how to vote this is well over three quarters.  Israeli Arab community, that back in 1970s and even 1980s overwhelmingly voted for mainstream parties is incerasingly seceding into its own polity.
The overwhelmingly voted for mainstream parties due to Labour cheap tricks with the satellite parties and those collapsed by the 70s. The rest of the vote was a split between Mapam and the communists who became the largest group since the mid 70s. Since then the rise of Islamism and secular nationalism grew to the current point that Hadash are being overthrown in all their traditional strongholds.
What the future holds is never clear but I think it's clear their public wants them to take a part of the pie and influence not only as tokens on the Palestinian matter (which I'm all for), this will have very strong implication on Israeli politics I think more than any merger or friction between current parties.
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ag
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« Reply #568 on: February 20, 2015, 07:44:31 PM »

The overwhelmingly voted for mainstream parties due to Labour cheap tricks with the satellite parties and those collapsed by the 70s. The rest of the vote was a split between Mapam and the communists who became the largest group since the mid 70s. Since then the rise of Islamism and secular nationalism grew to the current point that Hadash are being overthrown in all their traditional strongholds.

Aside from the fact that Mapam/Meretz IS a mainstream party, there is a bit of a problem with that narrative in that Hadash has never been historically that much stronger than they are now.

Hadash performance since 1977 has ranged between 3 and 5 seats - and, arguably, in the past the Jewish vote provided a greater share of those than it does now. In fact, aside from the 1977, the only time Hadash got to 5 was in coalition with Balad (in 1996).  Hadash itself, probably, now gets its highest ever share of the Arab vote - wherever those people voting for the Arab parties came from, they did not come from Hadash.
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danny
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« Reply #569 on: February 20, 2015, 09:16:00 PM »

The change in the Arab vote started in the late 80's and was basically done by the 99 election, so it is even shorter than ag's post insinuates. However, there hasn't been much movement in the last 15 years (other than between the Arab parties).
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ag
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« Reply #570 on: February 20, 2015, 09:22:04 PM »

The change in the Arab vote started in the late 80's and was basically done by the 99 election, so it is even shorter than ag's post insinuates. However, there hasn't been much movement in the last 15 years (other than between the Arab parties).

Hm. Are you sure you want to use the word "insinuate"? I think I was pretty openly stating what I was stating - and you seem to agree with me on the substance (as, of course, I would, mostly, agree with you on the timeframe).  I know, we have very different views of Israeli politics, but I still have a hard time to see what exactly you are insinuating with your "insinuate" Smiley
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danny
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« Reply #571 on: February 20, 2015, 09:38:06 PM »
« Edited: February 20, 2015, 09:41:51 PM by danny »

The change in the Arab vote started in the late 80's and was basically done by the 99 election, so it is even shorter than ag's post insinuates. However, there hasn't been much movement in the last 15 years (other than between the Arab parties).

Hm. Are you sure you want to use the word "insinuate"? I think I was pretty openly stating what I was stating - and you seem to agree with me on the substance (as, of course, I would, mostly, agree with you on the timeframe).  I know, we have very different views of Israeli politics, but I still have a hard time to see what exactly you are insinuating with your "insinuate" Smiley

I thought you were insinuating that the change in the Arab voting pattern towards Arab parties is a still ongoing phenomenon (I thought this because of your use of the word increasingly in the present tense), whereas I disagreed by saying that it was really more of a single decade event that was done by 1999.

But as for your argument with Hnv, I agree with you, the numbers clearly back you up.
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ag
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« Reply #572 on: February 20, 2015, 09:48:47 PM »

The change in the Arab vote started in the late 80's and was basically done by the 99 election, so it is even shorter than ag's post insinuates. However, there hasn't been much movement in the last 15 years (other than between the Arab parties).

Hm. Are you sure you want to use the word "insinuate"? I think I was pretty openly stating what I was stating - and you seem to agree with me on the substance (as, of course, I would, mostly, agree with you on the timeframe).  I know, we have very different views of Israeli politics, but I still have a hard time to see what exactly you are insinuating with your "insinuate" Smiley

I thought you were insinuating that the change in the Arab voting pattern towards Arab parties is a still ongoing phenomenon (I thought this because of your use of the word increasingly in the present tense), whereas I disagreed by saying that it was really more of a single decade event that was done by 1999.

But as for your argument with Hnv, I agree with you, the numbers clearly back you up.

I was, of course, pretty clear about the 70s and 80s as being the time when Arabs voted for the Zionist parties. Still, I did not insinuate, but stated that the process is, in a very significant sense, continuing. Up until now a sizeable Arab vote went for Hadash, which, though non-Zionist, is a bicommunal party with a notable Jewish core. By forcing Hadash into the Arab coalition, the new electoral law did further the process of communal separation (Dov Khenin's and Avraham Burg's attempts at slowing that  notwithstanding).

I have been quite clear about this before and I am quite clear about this here. What, exactly, was I insinuating?
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danny
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« Reply #573 on: February 20, 2015, 10:11:44 PM »


I was, of course, pretty clear about the 70s and 80s as being the time when Arabs voted for the Zionist parties. Still, I did not insinuate, but stated that the process is, in a very significant sense, continuing. Up until now a sizeable Arab vote went for Hadash, which, though non-Zionist, is a bicommunal party with a notable Jewish core. By forcing Hadash into the Arab coalition, the new electoral law did further the process of communal separation (Dov Khenin's and Avraham Burg's attempts at slowing that  notwithstanding).

I have been quite clear about this before and I am quite clear about this here. What, exactly, was I insinuating?

OK, you used increasing in the present tense. You were not insinuating, you said it outright, I will concede this.

As for Hadash though, they have been an Arab party with a token Jew and an overwhelmingly Arab electorate for a while now. They are just as Arab as parties like Meretz and Labour are Jewish. The fact that they joined with other parties based on their "Arabness" is only proving this, but it isn't something new
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #574 on: February 20, 2015, 10:45:29 PM »

I don't know if this has been posted already but, has Yesh Atid and Lapid say who they would form a coalition with? And with regards to the increase in Arab voters participating in the election, my cousin (who is Israeli Arab) said that many Arabs who didn't vote last election planned to do so this time around, may not be that many extra, but it seems it would have a big impact on who gets what.
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