Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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  Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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Author Topic: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015  (Read 167531 times)
danny
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« Reply #575 on: February 20, 2015, 11:08:22 PM »

I don't know if this has been posted already but, has Yesh Atid and Lapid say who they would form a coalition with?

He said that he would prefer Herzog, but didn't rule out Bibi. presumably he could enter into any coalition.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #576 on: February 21, 2015, 12:32:08 AM »

If all the parties stated before what coalition they would join, elections would be much less entertaining.
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Vosem
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« Reply #577 on: February 21, 2015, 06:21:09 PM »

Knesset Jeremy is out with his average for February 15-21, 2015. This one adds up perfectly to 120 seats when each party is rounded to the nearest number, so there's no need for judgement calls on who would get extra seats.

February 15-21, 2015 polling average:
Zionist Union (Herzog) 24
Likud (Netanyahu) 24
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Joint List (Odeh) 12
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 11
Kulanu (Kahlon) 8
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Shas (Deri) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 6
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

The center-left made some gains from the right over the last week. Jewish Home and Likud both lost a seat, while Yesh Atid and the Zionist Union gained a seat each. (This means Orit Strook and Nava Boker have lost their seats to Mickey Levy and Eyal Ben-Reuven). Netanyahu is of course still (overwhelmingly) favored to become the next Prime Minister, but the past week was still a good one for Herzog.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #578 on: February 26, 2015, 02:57:53 PM »

A TV debate between all party leader part for Herzog, Bibi, Litzman is on tonight. So far I must say Bennet came sharpest, Kachlon the dullest, Yishai the smoggiest, and Liberman unimpressive.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #579 on: February 26, 2015, 04:45:45 PM »

So Bennett should benefit, and Lieberman/Kachlon will suffer?

How did Odeh/Galon/Deri/Lapid do?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #580 on: February 26, 2015, 06:28:56 PM »

So Bennett should benefit, and Lieberman/Kachlon will suffer?

How did Odeh/Galon/Deri/Lapid do?
Odeh was decent though I doubt how much it will really benefit him electorally (it will give him a better image with the Jewish public). Galon was okay though I think she could have been sharper and should have aimed her darts at Lapid. Lapid who I thought will shine was mediocre. Deri didn't impress me but I guess I'm not the type that he tried impressing

oh and Bennet completely off balanced Kachlon with his quotes on the Palestinian issue (Kachlon looked paniced).
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ag
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« Reply #581 on: February 27, 2015, 08:52:35 PM »
« Edited: February 27, 2015, 08:54:07 PM by ag »

So, I found the full lists of candidates on the Election commission website. Do not read Hebrew, so google.translate is my guide, and google translate actually translates some names Smiley

Still, a few observations. First, there is an Arab List (so, in fact, designated oficially), which is NOT the Joint list. Not good.

Second, more interesting. There are, actually, quite a few Jewish - or, at least, non-Arab names on the Joint List. None of them (besides Khenin) are likely to be in the Knesset immediately - but at least one is high up enough to be plausibly promoted in case of a few resignations. So, this is what is there:

8. Boris Dov Khenin
18. Jonas Waal
20. Leah Tsemel Warszawski
21. Noah Levy
24. Huh Livnat
43. Pedro Goldfarb
58. Gerardo Leibner
67 Efraim Davidi
73. Edna Zaritsky
77. Huh Kevorkian (an Armenian, obviously)
99. Michael Warszawski
114. Tamar Guzanski (!!)

There must be more - but a few names have been so well translated, that they are impossible to understand. Perhaps some of the Hebrew or Arabic speakers here could help?
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #582 on: February 27, 2015, 09:05:43 PM »

What's so weird about Tamar Gozansky? She's a former Hadash MK from the 90s. It's very common for former MKs to be given ceremonial spaces in the hundred and teens.

I am a little bit surprised there are two more Jews in the top 20 though. Since a lot of seats in the teens are people who plan on resigning half way through their term as part of rotation, it's possible these Jews might get in if someone dies or resigns.

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danny
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« Reply #583 on: February 27, 2015, 09:27:57 PM »

There are two other Arab parties on that official site, The Arab List and The Hope For Change, but The Arab List has already withdrawn and supported the Joint List.

number 18 is an arab name (the Hebrew indicates it should be Yunas Vaal).

Jewish names would be 8, 20, 21, 24, 42, maybe 47, 48, 58, 67, 73, 79, 89, 98, 101, 113.

Only number 8 khenin is realistic.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #584 on: February 27, 2015, 09:43:29 PM »

Interesting, it appears Leah Tsemel Warszawski, number 20, the second highest Jew on the list, is a member of Balad, not Hadash.

At least, her husband had previously run on the Balad list, so I'm just assuming.
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ag
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« Reply #585 on: February 27, 2015, 10:38:43 PM »

What's so weird about Tamar Gozansky? She's a former Hadash MK from the 90s. It's very common for former MKs to be given ceremonial spaces in the hundred and teens.

I am a little bit surprised there are two more Jews in the top 20 though. Since a lot of seats in the teens are people who plan on resigning half way through their term as part of rotation, it's possible these Jews might get in if someone dies or resigns.



Nothing weird. I am simply bowing my head to the great freedom fighter.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #586 on: February 27, 2015, 10:41:06 PM »

Aren't you a neoliberal though?
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ag
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« Reply #587 on: February 27, 2015, 10:41:51 PM »


I am a liberal.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #588 on: February 27, 2015, 10:44:32 PM »

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie Wink

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.
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danny
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« Reply #589 on: February 27, 2015, 10:51:26 PM »

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie Wink

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

There is doubt, communism is the antithesis of freedom.
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ag
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« Reply #590 on: February 27, 2015, 10:59:42 PM »

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie Wink

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

This is EXACTLY, what I cannot forgive the State of Israel. Imagine: making me admire a commie!
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Famous Mortimer
WillipsBrighton
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« Reply #591 on: February 28, 2015, 12:13:27 AM »

Former Labor MK Nadia Hilou, the first Arab Christian women in the Knesset, died at age 61 of an unspecified illness.

She had been 18th on the Labor list in the 2013 election but had opted not to run in the primaries this time, no doubt because of her illness.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #592 on: February 28, 2015, 11:51:30 PM »

Just when we needed him... Frank Underwood shows up:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/1.644576
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Vosem
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« Reply #593 on: March 01, 2015, 02:51:30 PM »

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie Wink

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

This is EXACTLY, what I cannot forgive the State of Israel. Imagine: making me admire a commie!

I don't follow this statement at all. The State of Israel does not need forgiveness for making you admire the HP Tamar Gozansky -- you did that on your own!

Regardless, Knesset Jeremy is out with his average for the week of February 22-28, 2015. The numbers conveniently round to exactly 120 seats. One notable change that ag should like is that, while Jewish Home and the Joint List are still both projected to get 12 seats, the Joint List has moved ahead of Jewish Home for third place in the popular vote. These polls were all conducted prior to the debate, so any effects of that debate are yet to be seen.

February 22-28, 2015 polling average:
Zionist Union (Herzog) 24
Likud (Netanyahu) 23
Joint List (Odeh) 12
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 8
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Shas (Deri) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 6
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

The story was the same as that of last week; small gains from the right to the center-left, which leave the right still likely to install the Prime Minister. This week, the only change in terms of seats was Likud losing a single seat to Yesh Atid (specifically, former MK Ayoob Kara, a Druze who is the highest-ranked non-Jew on the Likud list, to current MK Elazar Stern, a floor-crosser from Hatnuah to Yesh Atid).
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ag
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« Reply #594 on: March 01, 2015, 10:11:54 PM »

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie Wink

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

This is EXACTLY, what I cannot forgive the State of Israel. Imagine: making me admire a commie!

I don't follow this statement at all. The State of Israel does not need forgiveness for making you admire the HP Tamar Gozansky -- you did that on your own!


Well, I guess, there are many things you cannot follow. Hard to explain, really: you either do come to this yourself, or not.
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Vosem
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« Reply #595 on: March 01, 2015, 11:37:39 PM »

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie Wink

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

This is EXACTLY, what I cannot forgive the State of Israel. Imagine: making me admire a commie!

I don't follow this statement at all. The State of Israel does not need forgiveness for making you admire the HP Tamar Gozansky -- you did that on your own!


Well, I guess, there are many things you cannot follow. Hard to explain, really: you either do come to this yourself, or not.

To sympathy for professional thieves and terror? I certainly hope I don't anytime soon
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ag
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« Reply #596 on: March 02, 2015, 12:32:08 AM »

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie Wink

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

This is EXACTLY, what I cannot forgive the State of Israel. Imagine: making me admire a commie!

I don't follow this statement at all. The State of Israel does not need forgiveness for making you admire the HP Tamar Gozansky -- you did that on your own!


Well, I guess, there are many things you cannot follow. Hard to explain, really: you either do come to this yourself, or not.

To sympathy for professional thieves and terror? I certainly hope I don't anytime soon

Please identify what and from whom was stolen by Tamar Guzansky, and also in which acts of terror was she personally involved, or else I would have to consider you a bullshootter.
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Vosem
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« Reply #597 on: March 02, 2015, 12:54:53 AM »

Just think it's ironic that "THE great FF" for you is a commie Wink

OTOH there's not doubt that Tamar Gozansky is a great FF.

This is EXACTLY, what I cannot forgive the State of Israel. Imagine: making me admire a commie!

I don't follow this statement at all. The State of Israel does not need forgiveness for making you admire the HP Tamar Gozansky -- you did that on your own!


Well, I guess, there are many things you cannot follow. Hard to explain, really: you either do come to this yourself, or not.

To sympathy for professional thieves and terror? I certainly hope I don't anytime soon

Please identify what and from whom was stolen by Tamar Guzansky, and also in which acts of terror was she personally involved, or else I would have to consider you a bullshootter.

Tamar Gozansky is, as you know full well, a prominent member of Maki, a communist party whose ultimate goal, like that all of other communist parties, to steal from the innocent populace in order to aid "the poor" (who in most cases don't seem to ever see much of it). It is also a party that has protested, just over the course of the past decade, Israeli operations in Gaza and Lebanon, which seems to indicate some degree of sympathy for Hamas and Hezbollah, respectively.

Tamar Gozansky, I strongly doubt, has ever stolen something or terrorized someone, but she's worked much of her life to make these things easier for others.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #598 on: March 02, 2015, 01:00:07 AM »

Watching two ex-Soviet Jews argue is never a good idea (speaking as someone whose mother is an ex-Soviet Jew.) This is not proving an exception to the rule.
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ag
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« Reply #599 on: March 02, 2015, 01:02:54 AM »
« Edited: March 02, 2015, 01:06:22 AM by ag »

So, she never, to the best of your knowledge, stole anything from anyone. Nor, for that matter, did the party she belonged to - though they might do that under certain circumstances. Nevertheless, in your definition, they are "thieves". If there is a definition of bullshyte, this is it.

You do not need to lecture me on Communism - I have been an anti-communist since before you were born. However, when God created Israel, he took three characteristics: 1) Jewishness, 2) basic human decency, and 3) supporting anybody but the Communists in Israel - and ruled that nobody can possess more than two out of three of these. Naturally, this puts me into a bind.
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