Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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  Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015
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Author Topic: Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015  (Read 167528 times)
ag
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« Reply #750 on: March 04, 2015, 02:14:09 PM »

Mikado asked this in the other maps thread but it should be here:

Can there be a stable-for-Israel government out of this election that does not contain both Likud and Labor?  Looking at the numbers, I'm having trouble coming up with a Likud government with over 66ish seats, and a government with 61-65 seats is implausible.

Likud can't invite in the Arabs or the fascists, Meretz won't join, and he can have either the Haredi parties or Yesh Atid but not both. There's no obvious Likud coalition that isn't a grand coalition with Labor plus Kulanu, the Haredi, and Jewish Home and maybe Lieberman.

The "fascists" he can't invite is only Marzel himself, the other members of the party are natural partners of Bibi.

A government with 61-65 may be undesirable, but it is plausible and certainly could be created.

A government with both Lapid and the Haredim would be hard, but not impossible.

A grand coalition is something that I'm sure Bibi would like, but only if they don't demand a rotation, and I suspect that this would be the demand.

The basic coalition for Bibi would be Likud+Bennet+Shas+UTJ+Lieberman+Kachlon+Yachad (not including Marzel). Bibi would like something wider, but he could fall back on this if he must.

Exactly. And, in fact, since the latest polls suggest he might get to 61 without one of the smaller right-wing parties (either Yachad or Lieberman, most likely), he may even have some bargaining power there.

A fine government it will be Smiley
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njwes
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« Reply #751 on: March 04, 2015, 02:34:01 PM »

ag, you forgot to mention the embarrassing embrace of the humsa by Ashkenazis as an integral part of ~the Jewish tradition~. No Birthrite trip is complete without one!
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ag
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« Reply #752 on: March 04, 2015, 03:25:10 PM »

ag, you forgot to mention the embarrassing embrace of the humsa by Ashkenazis as an integral part of ~the Jewish tradition~. No Birthrite trip is complete without one!

Well, since I do not have any "birthright", I have no clue what that is. In my book, whoever thinks falafel is his ethnic food is an Arab - whatever his/her religion is. We have to have some traditions left, for whoever's sake!
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Vosem
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« Reply #753 on: March 04, 2015, 07:24:30 PM »

I'm not going to go back over the last three pages and critique ag's inane comments word-for-word, like I was doing previously, but I will just note that this conversation began as ag criticizing nationalism (while he is now rejecting certain foods on a nationalistic basis) and has shifted towards ag apparently supporting Ashkenazi traditions -- forgetting that the desire to return to Israel was (in some places, still is), of course, one of the most-treasured and important of these, expressed every year at Passover.
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ag
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« Reply #754 on: March 04, 2015, 10:45:40 PM »

I'm not going to go back over the last three pages and critique ag's inane comments word-for-word, like I was doing previously, but I will just note that this conversation began as ag criticizing nationalism (while he is now rejecting certain foods on a nationalistic basis) and has shifted towards ag apparently supporting Ashkenazi traditions -- forgetting that the desire to return to Israel was (in some places, still is), of course, one of the most-treasured and important of these, expressed every year at Passover.

Well, among the important Ashkenazic traditions of recent lore has been devote Marxism. And, even as a convinced bourgeois counterrevolutionary I would not renounce that Smiley
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Vosem
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« Reply #755 on: March 04, 2015, 11:01:33 PM »

I'm not going to go back over the last three pages and critique ag's inane comments word-for-word, like I was doing previously, but I will just note that this conversation began as ag criticizing nationalism (while he is now rejecting certain foods on a nationalistic basis) and has shifted towards ag apparently supporting Ashkenazi traditions -- forgetting that the desire to return to Israel was (in some places, still is), of course, one of the most-treasured and important of these, expressed every year at Passover.

Well, among the important Ashkenazic traditions of recent lore has been devote Marxism. And, even as a convinced bourgeois counterrevolutionary I would not renounce that Smiley

A trait we share with many groups, though one we've moved away from more than others have. But basically, this is true Smiley
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ag
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« Reply #756 on: March 04, 2015, 11:08:24 PM »

I'm not going to go back over the last three pages and critique ag's inane comments word-for-word, like I was doing previously, but I will just note that this conversation began as ag criticizing nationalism (while he is now rejecting certain foods on a nationalistic basis) and has shifted towards ag apparently supporting Ashkenazi traditions -- forgetting that the desire to return to Israel was (in some places, still is), of course, one of the most-treasured and important of these, expressed every year at Passover.

Well, among the important Ashkenazic traditions of recent lore has been devote Marxism. And, even as a convinced bourgeois counterrevolutionary I would not renounce that Smiley

A trait we share with many groups, though one we've moved away from more than others have. But basically, this is true Smiley

Ok, in the spirit of reconciliation that every Jew must feel on this date, Happy Cheyne Stokes Day to all!
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Zanas
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« Reply #757 on: March 05, 2015, 10:17:02 AM »

Isn't there a sub-forum where you could take this rout ? I mean, gee ! This must be the mother of derailing threads, at least for 2015. Well, at least for March 2015.

And nobody even mentioned Palestine ! ^__^
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ag
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« Reply #758 on: March 05, 2015, 12:12:47 PM »

Isn't there a sub-forum where you could take this rout ? I mean, gee ! This must be the mother of derailing threads, at least for 2015. Well, at least for March 2015.

And nobody even mentioned Palestine ! ^__^

Sorry to everyone! But Jews talking politics tend to go back to the days of the Forefathers.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #759 on: March 05, 2015, 12:28:51 PM »

These posts are trash. Move them to the garbage.
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ag
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« Reply #760 on: March 05, 2015, 12:35:53 PM »

These posts are trash. Move them to the garbage.

Better to international discussion.

Again, apologies for tacking this astray. But, I dare say, trash this is not Smiley
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #761 on: March 05, 2015, 01:09:12 PM »

Quote
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lol
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ag
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« Reply #762 on: March 05, 2015, 01:25:32 PM »


Polls since the speech show remarkably little change. Seems like people have decided on the speech before it happened.
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danny
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« Reply #763 on: March 05, 2015, 01:40:15 PM »


Polls since the speech show remarkably little change. Seems like people have decided on the speech before it happened.

It's more that Iran isn't an important issue to most people, so it didn't really matter what he said.
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ag
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« Reply #764 on: March 05, 2015, 02:14:14 PM »


Polls since the speech show remarkably little change. Seems like people have decided on the speech before it happened.

It's more that Iran isn't an important issue to most people, so it didn't really matter what he said.

But the point was not so much Iran, as Netanyahu looking "presidential" on TV. I guess, the entire brou-ha-ha took away from that.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #765 on: March 06, 2015, 01:37:35 PM »

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4634075,00.html

Netanyahu apparently had secret deal with Palestinians in 2013, involving major concessions. Could help Bennett steal some seats from Likud.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #766 on: March 06, 2015, 02:14:37 PM »

So an unfortunate episode occurred yesterday:
Yesterday there was talk that ZU and Meretz were preparing to annul their surplus vote agreement. If it happened, ZU would have formed a new one with Yesh Atid, and Meretz will form one with the Joint List. Yesh Atid, ZU, Meretz support the idea, as well as Hadash. However Raam and Balad opposed it because they didn't want to be associated with a Zionist party. And Odeh was not able to drum up support within the list, so it didn't happen. If the right gets an extra seat this year, it may well be due to Raam and Balad's intransigence.

Since I don't know much about it other than what was reported n Haaretz, I was wondering if our resident Meretz activist, hnv1, could weigh in.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #767 on: March 06, 2015, 02:52:11 PM »
« Edited: March 06, 2015, 02:54:39 PM by Hnv1 »

So an unfortunate episode occurred yesterday:
Yesterday there was talk that ZU and Meretz were preparing to annul their surplus vote agreement. If it happened, ZU would have formed a new one with Yesh Atid, and Meretz will form one with the Joint List. Yesh Atid, ZU, Meretz support the idea, as well as Hadash. However Raam and Balad opposed it because they didn't want to be associated with a Zionist party. And Odeh was not able to drum up support within the list, so it didn't happen. If the right gets an extra seat this year, it may well be due to Raam and Balad's intransigence.

Since I don't know much about it other than what was reported n Haaretz, I was wondering if our resident Meretz activist, hnv1, could weigh in.

Odeh was for (and he came out in his facebook page saying he was binded) so was Tibi. What a shame, it means possible 2 seats gone (as YA also signed nothing). Raam could be swayed but Balad did their usual ruckus and due to the short time frame the agreement couldn't have been reached. Even president Abbas was said to have tried to weight in and influence (he's in good relations with Galon and personal friend with Barake and Tibi, Balad and the PA aren't best buds).

If I remember my constitutional law right it's even a dumber decision on their part considering they are the bigger faction so most likely the surplus will work for their advantage.

I fear this could be a fatal mistake, things are much tighter than they seem and like the 1992 elections those 2 seats could be crucial...I guess now all to hope for is low turnout in Likud strongholds and a swing toward JH (which is what Yediot are trying to build up).

A big rally by the V15 movement will take place on Saturday (I'm boycotting) night with the main spokesman to be former Mossad chief Meir Dagan. The strategy is to bring as many voters from Likud to Kachlon and Lapid and thus making a Bibi led government impossible (at least without rotation)
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #768 on: March 06, 2015, 03:34:03 PM »

Do you think there will be any repercussions for the Joint List? It seems reminiscent of the Ohana scandal- popular leader is selected to appeal to a wider audience, only to have the backbenchers revolt when he does that. I can imagine a lot of Hadash activists (especially Jews) are incensed. I would be shocked if this costed them a mandate though.

Also, what do you mean by binded?
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ag
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« Reply #769 on: March 06, 2015, 06:05:15 PM »

idiots.
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Comrade Funk
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« Reply #770 on: March 06, 2015, 06:21:46 PM »

Poor Odeh. Seems like a reasonable guy, but has to deal with these fanatics worsening their numbers.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #771 on: March 07, 2015, 06:27:56 AM »

Do you think there will be any repercussions for the Joint List? It seems reminiscent of the Ohana scandal- popular leader is selected to appeal to a wider audience, only to have the backbenchers revolt when he does that. I can imagine a lot of Hadash activists (especially Jews) are incensed. I would be shocked if this costed them a mandate though.

Also, what do you mean by binded?
Galon attacked them this morning. The Jewish vote is not where the tilt will come from (they amount to hardly half a seat), according to a pool last week 40% of joint list voters are still not sure of their pick and 40% of those favor Meretz. I think we'll see a small Arab swing toward Meretz that will amount to a single seat
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #772 on: March 07, 2015, 01:25:16 PM »

Never forget that some people are just congenitally stupid and that they often end up in politics for whatever reason.
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Vosem
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« Reply #773 on: March 07, 2015, 02:22:04 PM »

Knesset Jeremy was out with his average for the week of March 1-7, 2015, today. The numbers add up conveniently to exactly 120 seats.

Zionist Union (Herzog) 23
Likud (Netanyahu) 23
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 12
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 8
Shas (Deri) 7
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 6
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

The changes this week were very small and insignificant; the gains of the center-left made during the past two weeks seemed to stall. The only change in terms of seats was the loss of a seat by the Zionist Union to the Joint List (specifically, Eyal Ben-Reuven to Abdullah Abu Ma'aruf); this will probably make it harder on balance for the left to install a Prime Minister, since the Joint List will not participate in the government.
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MalaspinaGold
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« Reply #774 on: March 07, 2015, 06:22:04 PM »

This is probably wishful thinking but is there any chance that if the Joint List collapses, Odeh decides to join forces with Meretz? In all honesty I don't know what separates the two.
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