Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Hnv1]

So, the latest polls fairly consistently suggest that ZU may be about 3 seats ahead of Likud and that Kahlon will hold the ballance, as long as the "Arabs" are willing to endorse Herzog. In fact, it is gradually getting into the zone where Netanyahu may need not only Kachlon, but also every other rightwing and religious party (bar the person of Baruch Marzel) to form the government. It is hard to see YA joining Netanyahu after the recent experience, so it is either the narrow right wing or a very different government. So, some of the interesting questions now are

a) would Kahlon be willing to go into a narrow rightwing government with (almost) the entire right wing

b) would the "Arabs" be willing to offer sufficiently firm external support to a minority Labor/Livni government (in exchange, for, say, either Khenin or Tibi becoming the Knesset Speaker).

c) Would Likud be willing to go into a grand coalition WITHOUT Netanyahu being given the PM spot even for part of the term (e.g., if Labor insists on different Likud leadership as price of the rotation).

d) If the grand coalition is formed and "Arabs" are the largest opposition group in the Knesset, would they be allowed to become the official opposition?

d. Allowed? I don't think they need authorization. To be elected leader of the opposition you need to be voted by most MKs of the opposition if there's a grand coalition it will leave out Meretz, them and either of JH and the Haredi so it will be interesting to see what happens

[ag]

An interesting outcome of this will be the decline of the "Russians", defined as "born in the USSR". Consider the last few Knessets and compare this with the current lists. This seems to be going beyond the collapse of YB.

In the 17th Knesset there were initially 16. Two left and two joined in the course of the Knesset, so by the end it was still 16.

Marina Slobodkin (Kadima), Michael Nudelman (Kadima), Zeev Elkin (Kadima), Natan Shcharansky (Likud), Avracham Michaeli (Shas),  Amnon Cohen (Shas), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Yosef Shagal (YB), Yuri Stern (YB) Esterina Tartman (YB), Stas Misezhnikov (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Alex Miller (YB), Lia Shemtov (YB), Zachava Gal-On (Meretz). Shcharansky and Stern eventually left, but they were joined by Yuli Edelestein (Likud) and Leon Litinsky (Labor).

In the 18th Knesset there were initially at least 15, growing to 18 in the course of the Knesset. These were:

Marina Slobodkin (Kadima), Robert Tiviaev (Kadima), Orit Zuaretz (Kadima), Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud) Avigdor Liberman (YB), Stas Misezhnikov (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Anastasia Michaeli (YB), Faina Kirshenbaum (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Lia Shemtov (YB), Alex Miller (YB), Avracham Michaeli (Shas), Amnon Cohen (Shas). Later they were joined by Yulia Shamalov (Kadima), Nino Abesadze (Kadima) and Zachava Gal-On (Meretz).

In the 19th Knesset there were initially at least 10, growing to 12 in the course of the Knesset.

Yoel Razvozov (YA), Rina Frenkel (YA), Yuli Edelstein (Likud), Zeev Elkin (Likud), Avigdor Liberman (YB), Sofa Landver (YB), Faina Kirshenbaum (YB), Robert Ilatov (YB), Avracham Michaeli (Shas), and Zachava Gal-On (Meretz), later joined by Alex Miller (YB) and Leon Litenetsky (YB).

For the 20th Knesset, even taking every party at its upper limit in recent polls, it seems it will be, at best, only 8 initially, and I have hard time seeing more than 10 eventually.

Yoel Razvozov (8th for YA), Yuli Edelstein (3rd for Likud), Zeev Elkin (8th for Likud), Ksenia Svetlova (21st for ZU), Avidgor Liberman (1st for YB), Sofa Landver (3rd for YB), Avracham Michaeli (8th on Shas list) and Zachava Gal-On (1st for Meretz). In fact, I could find only two more in the spots that make it at all likely they will enter Knesset because of later resignations. Interestingly, these are the two Roberts: Robert Tiviaev (28th for ZU) and  Robert Ilatov (7th for YB). The only new face this time is Ksenia Svetlova.

[ag]

One thing I had not realized is that a good part of the Bukharans are with Shas, it seems.

[Vosem]

Tali Ploskov, sixth on Kulanu's list, was born in Moldova, and I suspect you've missed a few others. But, very unfortunately, your basic point about the decline of Russians in the Knesset does stand

[136or142]

Tali Ploskov, sixth on Kulanu's list, was born in Moldova, and I suspect you've missed a few others. But, very unfortunately, your basic point about the decline of Russians in the Knesset does stand

A lot of it has to do with Russians leaving Israel, but I'd also blame Liberman's lack of leadership for the community as well.

I've never heard this before.  Where are they going?

[danny]

They're not going anywhere (most of them), but they are integrating. it has been 25 years since the big immigration wave.

[ag]

They're not going anywhere (most of them), but they are integrating. it has been 25 years since the big immigration wave.

But the standard of Russianness I tookmwas being born in the USSR. 25 years after migrating these are still very active people. And being integrated should imply greater, not lesser, participation.

[ag]

Tali Ploskov, sixth on Kulanu's list, was born in Moldova, and I suspect you've missed a few others. But, very unfortunately, your basic point about the decline of Russians in the Knesset does stand

Forgot about Kulanu.

[danny]

They're not going anywhere (most of them), but they are integrating. it has been 25 years since the big immigration wave.

But the standard of Russianness I tookmwas being born in the USSR. 25 years after migrating these are still very active people. And being integrated should imply greater, not lesser, participation.

But the bulk of USSR born MK's has always been from Russian oriented parties Yisrael Beitenu (or Ba'aliyah earlier). The more Russians integrate the less need there is for parties like this and YB has tried becoming less centred Russians and appeal to others itself.

Without the need for special immigrant parties, the knesset is going back to trending towards more Israeli born Knesset members.

[Hnv1]

As I gather from my Russian friends they don't care much for Russian MKs who they view as politicos who never do anything real for the community. After 25 years the community also diversified a lot and I suspect the Russians living in the periphery who voted YB thus far are going to break strongly toward JH and Kachlon/Lapid. Liberman I predict is done.

Haaretz endorse Labour and than Meretz (first time they endorse Labour since the 90s I think).

It's prediction time:
Labour - 25
Likud - 20
Joint list - 13
JH - 12
Lapid - 12
Kachlon - 10
Shas - 8
UTJ - 6
Meretz - 5
Yachad - 5
Liberman - 4

[ag]

It goes beyond YB. Other parties also have fewer "Russians" than in the past. If it were the matter of intergration, given the large number of active age "Russians" in Israel you would expect more Russian MKs in the non-Russian faction, not less.

[ag]

It seems the electorate and the parties are not, yet, used to the 3.25% threshold. Otherwise, if anything, Likud should have been very supportive of YB and Labor of Meretz - failing below the threshold is a real danger for both now.

[Hnv1]

It goes beyond YB. Other parties also have fewer "Russians" than in the past. If it were the matter of intergration, given the large number of active age "Russians" in Israel you would expect more Russian MKs in the non-Russian faction, not less.

The old generation of politicos are well old and attract no votes and the new integrated generation is still very young. I suspect that in 10 years time there will be a massive surge on that matter

[136or142]

I don't know if it counts for much, but The Economist magazine endorsed Herzog.

Bibi’s a bad deal

The prime minister’s failures outweigh his achievements. Israelis should back Yitzhak Herzog.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21646206-prime-ministers-failures-outweigh-his-achievements-israelis-should-back-yitzhak-herzog-bibis

[ag]

It goes beyond YB. Other parties also have fewer "Russians" than in the past. If it were the matter of intergration, given the large number of active age "Russians" in Israel you would expect more Russian MKs in the non-Russian faction, not less.

The old generation of politicos are well old and attract no votes and the new integrated generation is still very young. I suspect that in 10 years time there will be a massive surge on that matter

That makes no sense. First of all, generations are not discrete - it is not like the people get born once a generation. Second, the bulk of these guys are now in their 50s and early 60s - in the country of Sharon and Peres this is baby age. They cannot be TOO OLD.

Look, these are the Russians in the 18th Knesset

Solodkin, born 1952 - ok, she is dead
Tiviaev, born 1961, 53 years old, lost reelection, running this time, but not likely to get in
Zuaretz, born 1967, 48 years old, lost reelection, not running
Shamalov, born 1964, 50 years old, lost reelection, not running
Abesadze, born 1965, 49 years old, lost reelection, not running
Elkin, born 1971, 43 years old, in Knesset and will be reelected
Edelstein, born 1958, 56 years old, in Knesset and will be reelected
Liberman, born 1958, 56 years old, in Knesset and should be reelected
Misezhnikov, born 1969, 46 years old, out of Knesset and not contesting
Landver, born 1949, 65 years old, in Knesset and should be reelected
Michaeli (YB), born in 1975, 39 years old, out of Knesset and not contesting
Kirshenbaum, born in 1955, 59 years old, still in Knesset but not running for reelection
Ilatov, born 1971, 43 years old, still in Knesset, and running, but not likely to be reelected
Shemtov, born in 1958, 56 years old, lost reelection and is not running
Miller, born in 1977, 37 years old, in Knesset and running, but not likely to be reelected
Michaeli (Shas), born in 1957, 57 years old, in Knesset and running, may be reelected, but far from certain
Cohen, born in 1960, 54 years old, out of Knesset and not contesting
Gal On, born in 1956, 59 years old, in Knesset and should be reelected

There is no correlation with age at all - and none of them are older than, say, Netanyahu (born in 1949, peer to the oldest "Russian" MK on the list - Lanver, who is one of the few still going strong, anyway).  

[danny]

I don't know if it counts for much, but The Economist magazine endorsed Herzog.

Bibi’s a bad deal

The prime minister’s failures outweigh his achievements. Israelis should back Yitzhak Herzog.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21646206-prime-ministers-failures-outweigh-his-achievements-israelis-should-back-yitzhak-herzog-bibis

It means about as much as Sarah Silverman endorsing Meretz (not at all).

[ag]

What I am getting from the "Russians" this time is that the Likud propaganda that "only if Likud gets the most votes will Netanyahu get form the government" is working miracles. Everybody with a Russian blog and their grandma is posting that "I have never voted for Likud, but I am so scared of Bugietsipi, I will have to this time". Of course, that really increases the risk of YB going down in flames below the self-imposed (oh, the irony) 3.25% treshold - and nobody even bothers to mention that. Either I do not understand something, or the Likudniks are making a serious mistake.

[ag]

I don't know if it counts for much, but The Economist magazine endorsed Herzog.

Bibi’s a bad deal

The prime minister’s failures outweigh his achievements. Israelis should back Yitzhak Herzog.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21646206-prime-ministers-failures-outweigh-his-achievements-israelis-should-back-yitzhak-herzog-bibis

It means about as much as Sarah Silverman endorsing Meretz (not at all).

I guess, the only guy in Israel regularly reading the Economist who would prefer Netanyahu is Bibi himself.

[MalaspinaGold]

I think historians will be talking about the success and electoral prowess of Yair Lapid decades from now. I mean seriously.

Also, what party leaders do people think will be leaving after the election? I'm pretty sure Bibi if he loses, possibly Buji if he fails to put together a coalition. What about Lieberman, will he just decide to retire, or will he keep fighting? Same question about Galon.

[ag]

I think historians will be talking about the success and electoral prowess of Yair Lapid decades from now. I mean seriously.

Also, what party leaders do people think will be leaving after the election? I'm pretty sure Bibi if he loses, possibly Buji if he fails to put together a coalition. What about Lieberman, will he just decide to retire, or will he keep fighting? Same question about Galon.

If Meretz or YB fail to get in, their leaders are, probably, done. Netanyahu is there to stay, methinks. Herzog will stay in politics, but, probably, will not stay the Labor leader long.

[MalaspinaGold]

http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.646709

Regarding Netanyahu, the Julian knives are already coming out. The best thing to happen to them right before an election.

Galon has a primary/committee to answer to- if she loses seats, regardless of whether they stay in the Knesset, especially considering where Meretz was polling this time last year.

Lieberman is harder to answer for, considering he's basically a one man show. However, if people are unwilling to run with him, or jump ship, I could see him reincorporating himself into Likud, espacially when Bibi retires.

[ag]

http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.646709

Regarding Netanyahu, the Julian knives are already coming out. The best thing to happen to them right before an election.

Galon has a primary/committee to answer to- if she loses seats, regardless of whether they stay in the Knesset, especially considering where Meretz was polling this time last year.

Lieberman is harder to answer for, considering he's basically a one man show. However, if people are unwilling to run with him, or jump ship, I could see him reincorporating himself into Likud, espacially when Bibi retires.

Yeah, Liberman, probably, will rejoin Likud.

[Peter the Lefty]

http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.646709

Regarding Netanyahu, the Julian knives are already coming out. The best thing to happen to them right before an election.

Galon has a primary/committee to answer to- if she loses seats, regardless of whether they stay in the Knesset, especially considering where Meretz was polling this time last year.

Lieberman is harder to answer for, considering he's basically a one man show. However, if people are unwilling to run with him, or jump ship, I could see him reincorporating himself into Likud, espacially when Bibi retires.

Yeah, Liberman, probably, will rejoin Likud.

Probably a likely bet.  Especially since the next Likud leader will almost certainly be to the right of Bibi.

[Famous Mortimer]

http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/.premium-1.646709

Regarding Netanyahu, the Julian knives are already coming out. The best thing to happen to them right before an election.

Galon has a primary/committee to answer to- if she loses seats, regardless of whether they stay in the Knesset, especially considering where Meretz was polling this time last year.

Lieberman is harder to answer for, considering he's basically a one man show. However, if people are unwilling to run with him, or jump ship, I could see him reincorporating himself into Likud, espacially when Bibi retires.

Yeah, Liberman, probably, will rejoin Likud.

Probably a likely bet.  Especially since the next Likud leader will almost certainly be to the right of Bibi.

This doesn't really matter. As many have pointed out, Lieberman is not categorically to the right of Netanyahu. It depends on what day of the week it is.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

IMO, if the right wants to win, they should consolidate their vote around Likud/YB and JH, and avoid some of the smaller parties like Yachad (who may not even pass the threshold) and Kulanu (as it is still up in the air who Kahlon may recommend for PM).