Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[MalaspinaGold]

If Yachad does not pass the threshold, we will not see a Bibi prime minister. It just can't happen.

Speaking of JH, I've heard its a possibility Bennett will split from JH.

[Famous Mortimer]

To form a micro party or to join Likud?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Polling shows Herzog with a lead entering the polling blackout.  I hope that Herzog is able to pull together a coalition after all is said and done after March 17 - Bibi is a dangerous man and needs to get voted out.

[MalaspinaGold]

To form a micro party or to join Likud?

I haven't heard of him joining Likud, but word is he has greatly resented being chained to the nutjobs in Jewish Home. He wants to build an all-encompassing [Jewish] Israeli party, while his party remains stubbornly geared towards Dati Leumi and Hardalim.

[Tender Branson]

Polling shows Herzog with a lead entering the polling blackout.  I hope that Herzog is able to pull together a coalition after all is said and done after March 17 - Bibi is a dangerous man and needs to get voted out.

[Tender Branson]

Let's try a prediction for this one:

Seats

  24 Zionist Union (Labor/Hatnuah)
  23 Likud
  13 Joint Arab list (Hadash/UAL-Ta'al/Balad)
  12 Yesh Atid
  11 Jewish Home
    9 Kulanu
    7 Shas
    6 UTJ
    5 Meretz
    5 Yisrael Beiteinu
    5 Yachad/Otzma Yehudit
120 Total

...

Turnout: ~65%

[Incipimus iterum]

Polling shows Herzog with a lead entering the polling blackout.  I hope that Herzog is able to pull together a coalition after all is said and done after March 17 - Bibi is a dangerous man and needs to get voted out.

For once I agree

[MalaspinaGold]

Just leaving this here...

[Double Carpet]

Hi,

If anyone is interested in taking part, a "last call" for the prediction competition at:

electiongame.co.uk/israel15/

Entries close 7pm GMT Monday.

Many thanks,


DC

[jaichind]

My prediction

Otzma   4
JH        11
Likud    22
Shas      8
UTJ        7
YB          5
Kulanu   9
YA        12
ZU       25
Meretz   4   
JL        13

I think in the end Kulanu will join a Likud based coalition government.

[The Other Castro]

Random guess:

Zionist Union: 25 Seats
Likud: 22 Seats
Joint List (Arab): 13 Seats
Yesh Atid: 12 Seats
The Jewish Home: 11 Seats
Kulanu: 9 Seats
Shas: 8 Seats
UTJ: 6 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu: 5 Seats
Meretz: 5 Seats
Yachad/Otzma: 4 Seats

Zionist Union Coalition: 63 Seats
-Zionist Union
-Yesh Atid
-Meretz
-Joint List
-Shas

[MalaspinaGold]

Random guess:

Zionist Union: 25 Seats
Likud: 22 Seats
Joint List (Arab): 13 Seats
Yesh Atid: 12 Seats
The Jewish Home: 11 Seats
Kulanu: 9 Seats
Shas: 8 Seats
UTJ: 6 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu: 5 Seats
Meretz: 5 Seats
Yachad/Otzma: 4 Seats

Zionist Union Coalition: 63 Seats
-Zionist Union
-Yesh Atid
-Meretz
-Joint List
-Shas

Kahlon will go with ZU before Shas does.

[danny]

Random guess:

Zionist Union: 25 Seats
Likud: 22 Seats
Joint List (Arab): 13 Seats
Yesh Atid: 12 Seats
The Jewish Home: 11 Seats
Kulanu: 9 Seats
Shas: 8 Seats
UTJ: 6 Seats
Yisrael Beiteinu: 5 Seats
Meretz: 5 Seats
Yachad/Otzma: 4 Seats

Zionist Union Coalition: 63 Seats
-Zionist Union
-Yesh Atid
-Meretz
-Joint List
-Shas

The Joint list cant even sit with Meretz in the same coalition, much less all those parties to its right.

[Donerail]

Prediction:

Zionist Union: 25 seats
Likud: 21 seats
Joint List: 13 seats
Yesh Atid: 12 seats
Jewish Home: 12 seats
Kulanu: 9 seats
Shas: 7 seats
Meretz: 6 seats
UTJ: 6 seats
Yisrael Beiteinu: 5 seats
Yachad: 4 seats

It'd be genuinely remarkable if Herzog could manage to woo Lapid, Shas/UTJ, Meretz, and Kahlon into one coalition, though it'd be just as remarkable if Netanyahu could both get Kahlon to join him and get Deri and Yishai to play nice together. Grand coalition of Likud, Zionist Union, Kahlon and Lapid seems most likely at this point, but even that seems improbable.

[Comrade Funk]

Prediction
Zionist Union - 25
Likud - 21
Joint List - 14
Jewish Home - 11
Yesh Atid - 11
Kulanu - 10
Shas - 7
UTJ - 7
Meretz - 5
Yisrael Beitenu - 5
Yachad - 4

Zionist Union-Likud-Yesh Atid-Kulanu (67)

[Vosem]

Knesset Jeremy was out with his average for the week of March 1-7, 2015, today. The numbers add up conveniently to exactly 120 seats.

Zionist Union (Herzog) 23
Likud (Netanyahu) 23
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 12
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 8
Shas (Deri) 7
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 6
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

I've had a busy weekend and missed Knesset Jeremy's last poll average, for the week of March 8-13, 2015. The numbers added up to exactly 120 seats once again.

Zionist Union (Herzog) 24
Likud (Netanyahu) 22
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 12
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 9
Shas (Deri) 7
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 5
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

The rush to the center from the right continued over the course of the final week. Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu lost one seat each (specifically, Netanyahu's personal choice Anat Berko and rightist Druze MK Hamad Amar) to Zionist Union and Kulanu, which gained a seat each (specifically, Eyal Ben-Reuven and Roy Folkman).

For sh**ts and giggles, I also worked out what the numbers would be if all parties over or underperform exactly the way they did in 2013. This would put Yahad under the threshold at only a 2-seat performance, so the last two seats would be given to the two parties who came closest to an extra seat in KJ's final prediction -- the Zionist Union and Yesh Atid. Would be a big leftist overperformance if this was the case (of course, so was 2013):

Zionist Union (Herzog) 23
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 21
Likud (Netanyahu) 20
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Jewish Home (Bennett) 10
Kulanu (Kahlon) 9
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 8
Shas (Deri) 7
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 4

My personal prediction is:

Zionist Union (Herzog) 24
Likud (Netanyahu) 19
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 13
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 12
Shas (Deri) 8
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 4
Meretz (Gal-On) 4
Yahad (Yishai) 4

Which is basically just some minor modifications of the polls in terms of who normally over/underperforms and who I think has momentum.

[MalaspinaGold]

I agree with danny and MalaspinaGold, it is not likely that 1. The Arabs would sit with a religious Jewish party  2. That Shas would go to a left-leaning coalition before Kulanu.

That is why I think Likud will form a coalition. It will be tough for Zionist Union to convince all of these potential partners to come to the table. However, this is Israeli politics we are talking about...so anything can happen.

The Joint List would most certainly back a coalition from the outside. Also I wouldn't be surprised if Joint List would be friendlier to UTJ/Shas that to Lapid (note that this is all relative).

[danny]

It'd be genuinely remarkable if Herzog could manage to woo Lapid, Shas/UTJ, Meretz, and Kahlon into one coalition, though it'd be just as remarkable if Netanyahu could both get Kahlon to join him and get Deri and Yishai to play nice together. Grand coalition of Likud, Zionist Union, Kahlon and Lapid seems most likely at this point, but even that seems improbable.

Getting Lapid and the Haredim together is certainly a problem, but Bibi's coalition partners don't have a problem sitting in the same coalition with the others (Deri and Yishai hate each other but I'm sure they will sit in the same coalition).

[Famous Mortimer]

Knesset Jeremy was out with his average for the week of March 1-7, 2015, today. The numbers add up conveniently to exactly 120 seats.

Zionist Union (Herzog) 23
Likud (Netanyahu) 23
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 12
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 8
Shas (Deri) 7
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 6
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

I've had a busy weekend and missed Knesset Jeremy's last poll average, for the week of March 8-13, 2015. The numbers added up to exactly 120 seats once again.

Zionist Union (Herzog) 24
Likud (Netanyahu) 22
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 12
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 9
Shas (Deri) 7
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 5
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yahad (Yishai) 4

The rush to the center from the right continued over the course of the final week. Likud and Yisrael Beiteinu lost one seat each (specifically, Netanyahu's personal choice Anat Berko and rightist Druze MK Hamad Amar) to Zionist Union and Kulanu, which gained a seat each (specifically, Eyal Ben-Reuven and Roy Folkman).

For sh**ts and giggles, I also worked out what the numbers would be if all parties over or underperform exactly the way they did in 2013. This would put Yahad under the threshold at only a 2-seat performance, so the last two seats would be given to the two parties who came closest to an extra seat in KJ's final prediction -- the Zionist Union and Yesh Atid. Would be a big leftist overperformance if this was the case (of course, so was 2013):

Zionist Union (Herzog) 23
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 21
Likud (Netanyahu) 20
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Jewish Home (Bennett) 10
Kulanu (Kahlon) 9
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 8
Shas (Deri) 7
Meretz (Gal-On) 5
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 4

My personal prediction is:

Zionist Union (Herzog) 24
Likud (Netanyahu) 19
Joint List (Odeh) 13
Yesh Atid (Lapid) 13
Jewish Home (Bennett) 12
Kulanu (Kahlon) 12
Shas (Deri) 8
United Torah Judaism (Litzman) 7
Yisrael Beiteinu (Liberman) 4
Meretz (Gal-On) 4
Yahad (Yishai) 4

Which is basically just some minor modifications of the polls in terms of who normally over/underperforms and who I think has momentum.

I think Yesh Atid is unlikely to pull the same trick twice. If anyone is going to have a surprise surge, it's going to be Kahlon.

[DL]

Are there any rumours as to what the parties internal polling is saying after the ban on public polling kicked in on Friday?

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Not sure if anyone's posted this anywhere yet:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/17/world/middleeast/benjamin-netanyahu-campaign-settlement.html?_r=0

Netanyahu reversed his support for the two-state solution, saying if he is re-elected, there will be no Palestinian state. In 2009, he had endorsed the two-state solution in a speech.

[MalaspinaGold]

Are there any rumours as to what the parties internal polling is saying after the ban on public polling kicked in on Friday?

Bennett is considered that after the right-wing rally yesterday, that he will receive fewer than 10 mandates, because of a right-wing Kadima Effect.

Likud is concerned they'll get under 20, because Kahlon.

EDIT: Livni just gave up her power sharing agreement with Herzog.

[Famous Mortimer]

What's the Kadima effect?

[Famous Mortimer]

Re:Livni giving up the rotation deal

GOOD

[MalaspinaGold]

What's the Kadima effect?

More strident partisans strategically voting to prop up less stridently partisan parties in order to ensure they form a government  (doesn't work but as long as it hurts Bennett, I'm fine with it).