Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Hnv1]

last minute prediction: JH will fall and likud will boost up to maybe even Labour who did the mistake of not attacking Lapid enough. Shas also falls badly

[Tender Branson]

last minute prediction: JH will fall and likud will boost up to maybe even Labour who did the mistake of not attacking Lapid enough. Shas also falls badly

I already had a feeling that Likud might end up better than the polls said. That's why I already upwheighted Likud in my prediction yesterday. Now they might even finish ahead of the ZU, with the latest right-wing stunt ...

[Tender Branson]

When will the polls close tomorrow in Israel? I would like to follow the results.

I guess at 10pm local time, which is 9pm CET or 4pm EST.

[MalaspinaGold]

My prediction:
ZU: 24
Likud: 21
JL: 14
Yesh Atid: 14
JH: 10
Kulanu: 9
Shas: 7
UTJ: 6
Meretz: 6
YB: 5
Yachad: 4

[DL]

Weren't people speculating that ditching Livni from the PM rotation could net the ZU an extra two seats? who would those come from?

[Lurker]

If Lapid is "kingmaker", would he back Netanyahu or Herzog for PM?

[Comrade Funk]

If Lapid is "kingmaker", would he back Netanyahu or Herzog for PM?

Herzog, unless he's a hypocrite. The real kingmaker is Kahlon.

[ag]

I agree with danny and MalaspinaGold, it is not likely that 1. The Arabs would sit with a religious Jewish party  

Balad and Raam will not sit with any Jewish party. Most likely, the Joint List would not join any government. But they may be able to support it from the outside.

However, I do not think there is anything in particular that makes Shas a less acceptable coalition partner than, say, YA. If anything, Shas and many of the Arabs speak much the same language and understand each other better.

[ag]

A crucial question is what will happen to YB, Yachad and Meretz.

I am still to find anybody, who is openly planning to vote for YB. I have seen some Russian-language bloggers who are voting Likud (mostly), JH (many, though many saying they might switch to Likud),  Yachad, YA, Kulanu and even Meretz (actually, probably even the Joint Kist, but I have not checked the usual suspects). But I am still to see anybody saying they would vote or advocating voting for YB. If they fail to cross the 3.25% threshold it would change the coalition calculus quite a bit. Of coruse, Yachad and Meretz are also in danger. This might be the main source for surpizes tomorrow.

[ag]

Ok, let me try my forecast. Probably, completely off.

ZU 25
Likud 24
Joint List 13
YA 12
Kulanu 11
JH 9
Shas 7
UTJ 6
Meretz 5
YB 4
Yachad 4

[MalaspinaGold]

A crucial question is what will happen to YB, Yachad and Meretz.

I am still to find anybody, who is openly planning to vote for YB. I have seen some Russian-language bloggers who are voting Likud (mostly), JH (many, though many saying they might switch to Likud),  Yachad, YA, Kulanu and even Meretz (actually, probably even the Joint Kist, but I have not checked the usual suspects). But I am still to see anybody saying they would vote or advocating voting for YB. If they fail to cross the 3.25% threshold it would change the coalition calculus quite a bit. Of coruse, Yachad and Meretz are also in danger. This might be the main source for surpizes tomorrow.

Link or it didn't happen.

[Boston Bread]

Not at all qualified to make a prediction, but for the sake of peace and stability I hope Bibi is ousted.

[ag]

A crucial question is what will happen to YB, Yachad and Meretz.

I am still to find anybody, who is openly planning to vote for YB. I have seen some Russian-language bloggers who are voting Likud (mostly), JH (many, though many saying they might switch to Likud),  Yachad, YA, Kulanu and even Meretz (actually, probably even the Joint Kist, but I have not checked the usual suspects). But I am still to see anybody saying they would vote or advocating voting for YB. If they fail to cross the 3.25% threshold it would change the coalition calculus quite a bit. Of coruse, Yachad and Meretz are also in danger. This might be the main source for surpizes tomorrow.

Link or it didn't happen.

Инджой


http://abu-tir.livejournal.com/?skip=20

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10200362949672241&set=p.10200362949672241&type=1

And here the guy is, at least, considering this

http://yaqir-mamlal.livejournal.com/277263.html?thread=8781583

[Donerail]

Bibi has cut a last-minute campaign ad featuring Chuck Norris.

[Hnv1]

A crucial question is what will happen to YB, Yachad and Meretz.

I am still to find anybody, who is openly planning to vote for YB. I have seen some Russian-language bloggers who are voting Likud (mostly), JH (many, though many saying they might switch to Likud),  Yachad, YA, Kulanu and even Meretz (actually, probably even the Joint Kist, but I have not checked the usual suspects). But I am still to see anybody saying they would vote or advocating voting for YB. If they fail to cross the 3.25% threshold it would change the coalition calculus quite a bit. Of coruse, Yachad and Meretz are also in danger. This might be the main source for surpizes tomorrow.

Link or it didn't happen.

I know quite a few Russians who vote Meretz I'm not surprised by this at all. BTW fun fact, in the 90s they took all party platforms translated it to Russian and erased party names and Meretz platform was most popular among Russian immigrants.

Regarding Yachad I assume it's Russiam supporting Marzel (most of the hardcore of Kach were Americans and Russians) not so much supporting Yishai the 'papuas' (dirty word I heard some Russians call him when he was in Shas)

[cp]

Bibi has cut a last-minute campaign ad featuring Chuck Norris.

Is this something that Israeli voters would respond to? From an outsider's perspective (and, admittedly, a very badly informed one) this seems like the height of absurdity - and possibly a sign of desperation.

[ag]

A crucial question is what will happen to YB, Yachad and Meretz.

I am still to find anybody, who is openly planning to vote for YB. I have seen some Russian-language bloggers who are voting Likud (mostly), JH (many, though many saying they might switch to Likud),  Yachad, YA, Kulanu and even Meretz (actually, probably even the Joint Kist, but I have not checked the usual suspects). But I am still to see anybody saying they would vote or advocating voting for YB. If they fail to cross the 3.25% threshold it would change the coalition calculus quite a bit. Of coruse, Yachad and Meretz are also in danger. This might be the main source for surpizes tomorrow.

Link or it didn't happen.

Ah, of course, Meretz

http://varana.livejournal.com/937972.html?thread=6852596#t6852596

http://kandidych.livejournal.com/2112992.html

[ag]

Regarding Yachad I assume it's Russiam supporting Marzel (most of the hardcore of Kach were Americans and Russians) not so much supporting Yishai the 'papuas' (dirty word I heard some Russians call him when he was in Shas)

Among "Russians proper", that is, of course, what it is. If we expand to "Soviets", there are also, possibly, some of the Bukharans and the Georgians. But that sector I know next to nothing about.

[Hnv1]

Regarding Yachad I assume it's Russiam supporting Marzel (most of the hardcore of Kach were Americans and Russians) not so much supporting Yishai the 'papuas' (dirty word I heard some Russians call him when he was in Shas)

Among "Russians proper", that is, of course, what it is. If we expand to "Soviets", there are also, possibly, some of the Bukharans and the Georgians. But that sector I know next to nothing about.

I don't really group them together either and can't say I know much of their voting patterns. I did a quick look on some towns and cities I know there's a big 'Kavkaz' population and it seems Likud+YB dominated very strongly last time with JH coming second and surprisingly YA third. They are generally more religious compared to the secular Russians yet I still doubt even Yishai can appeal to them

[ag]

Regarding Yachad I assume it's Russiam supporting Marzel (most of the hardcore of Kach were Americans and Russians) not so much supporting Yishai the 'papuas' (dirty word I heard some Russians call him when he was in Shas)

Among "Russians proper", that is, of course, what it is. If we expand to "Soviets", there are also, possibly, some of the Bukharans and the Georgians. But that sector I know next to nothing about.

I don't really group them together either and can't say I know much of their voting patterns. I did a quick look on some towns and cities I know there's a big 'Kavkaz' population and it seems Likud+YB dominated very strongly last time with JH coming second and surprisingly YA third. They are generally more religious compared to the secular Russians yet I still doubt even Yishai can appeal to them

Well, considering that Shas has recently had a Bukharan and a Georgian MK, why not?

[MalaspinaGold]

From what I understand currrent Shasnik Avraham Michaeli was Georgian and was allied with Yishai...

[ag]

From what I understand currrent Shasnik Avraham Michaeli was Georgian and was allied with Yishai...

Was, and is.

[jaichind]

http://www.timesofisrael.com/livni-forgoes-premiership-rotation-with-herzog/

Livni forgoes rotating premiership with Herzog

October surprise ?

[ag]

http://www.timesofisrael.com/livni-forgoes-premiership-rotation-with-herzog/

Livni forgoes rotating premiership with Herzog

October surprise ?

More specifically, she says  she would forgo it if necessary for coalition formation.

[Hnv1]

Regarding Yachad I assume it's Russiam supporting Marzel (most of the hardcore of Kach were Americans and Russians) not so much supporting Yishai the 'papuas' (dirty word I heard some Russians call him when he was in Shas)

Among "Russians proper", that is, of course, what it is. If we expand to "Soviets", there are also, possibly, some of the Bukharans and the Georgians. But that sector I know next to nothing about.

I don't really group them together either and can't say I know much of their voting patterns. I did a quick look on some towns and cities I know there's a big 'Kavkaz' population and it seems Likud+YB dominated very strongly last time with JH coming second and surprisingly YA third. They are generally more religious compared to the secular Russians yet I still doubt even Yishai can appeal to them

Well, considering that Shas has recently had a Bukharan and a Georgian MK, why not?

Might be with earlier immigrants\very religious ones. I just can't see the appeal for more traditionalists with Yishai. But can't say I know that sector very well so we'll have and see the results to see if there was any sway