Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[ag]

http://www.votes20.gov.il/nationalresults

But all in Hebrew.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Likud apparatchiks are briefing to the effect that a grand coalition would be a good idea.

[ag]

Likud apparatchiks are briefing to the effect that a grand coalition would be a good idea.

Given the results, they would much prefer this. In fact, they, probably, were much prefering this even before the vote. Particularly interesting given Netanyahu's claims of the last few days. Would be interesting to see how many solemn promises will he break. BTW, has he called Bennet? He said he would call him before calling Obama.

[ag]

Likud is ahead on the current count. Would be interesting to know, where they are reporting from.

[Boston Bread]

If a grand coalition is formed and ZU is the biggest party, wouldn't Bibi have to step down as PM? Is Likud expecting to be the largest even though there's no indication that it's going to happen yet?

[Maez]

If a grand coalition is formed and ZU is the biggest party, wouldn't Bibi have to step down as PM? Is Likud expecting to be the largest even though there's no indication that it's going to happen yet?

If there is a grand coalition, would there not be some rotating PMship deal happening?

[ag]

If a grand coalition is formed and ZU is the biggest party, wouldn't Bibi have to step down as PM? Is Likud expecting to be the largest even though there's no indication that it's going to happen yet?

Rotation, probably.

Given the number of seats they got, the long knives prepared all day long by the Likud bigwigs for Netanyahu are, probably, going to stay unused, for the moment.

[ag]

Have to teach. Pity. Will be back in a couple of hours.

[Famous Mortimer]

13 Arab members in the outgoing Knesset.

Looks like there will be 16 in the upcoming Knesset.

1 Druze from Likud, 1 Muslim and 1 Druze from Labor, 1 Muslim from Meretz, plus 12 out of 13 from the Joint List.

Those numbers are unlikely to change. Unless the joint list wins more or Betenyu wins one more and gets their Druze re-elected.

[politicus]

13 Arab members in the outgoing Knesset.

Looks like there will be 16 in the upcoming Knesset.

1 Druze from Likud, 1 Muslim and 1 Druze from Labor, 1 Muslim from Meretz, plus 12 out of 13 from the Joint List.

Those numbers are unlikely to change. Unless the joint list wins more or Betenyu wins one more and gets their Druze re-elected.

Any Christians?

[danny]

Channel 1 have updated their exit poll, and have now put Yachad over the threshold after all, would change 4 seats if he actually gets in.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Herzog pretty much saying that there will be no deal without him at the top. Let's see how Likud responds.

[Famous Mortimer]

13 Arab members in the outgoing Knesset.

Looks like there will be 16 in the upcoming Knesset.

1 Druze from Likud, 1 Muslim and 1 Druze from Labor, 1 Muslim from Meretz, plus 12 out of 13 from the Joint List.

Those numbers are unlikely to change. Unless the joint list wins more or Betenyu wins one more and gets their Druze re-elected.

Any Christians?

2. Re-elected Balad MK Basel Ghattas is one. Also, Aida Touma-Sliman, the number two from Hadash, is a woman from the Christian community. Being a Communist, I am unsure if she is practicing.

There were only two in the last Knesset as well, Ghattas and another Hadash MK Hana Sweid, although he was not a member of Communist Party and was definitely a believer.

[The Mikado]

After he cannibalized his partners like this, I have to imagine that Lieberman and Bennet are fuming about Netanyahu. It'll be an awkward coalition.

[danny]

After 234K votes (%):

Likud: 25.76
ZU: 19.28
YA: 8.05
JH: 7.47
Kulanu: 7.43
Lieberman: 6.27
JL: 6.21
Shas: 5.96
Meretz: 4.34
UTJ: 3.95
Yachad: 3.39

[Famous Mortimer]

After 234K votes (%):

Likud: 25.76
ZU: 19.28
YA: 8.05
JH: 7.47
Kulanu: 7.43
Lieberman: 6.27
JL: 6.21
Shas: 5.96
Meretz: 4.34
UTJ: 3.95
Yachad: 3.39

Did you mean to include a percentage there?

[danny]

After 234K votes (%):

Likud: 25.76
ZU: 19.28
YA: 8.05
JH: 7.47
Kulanu: 7.43
Lieberman: 6.27
JL: 6.21
Shas: 5.96
Meretz: 4.34
UTJ: 3.95
Yachad: 3.39

Did you mean to include a percentage there?

No, I just meant that all those numbers below are in percentages.

[Famous Mortimer]

Ah. Like what percentage of the vote is that though?

[MalaspinaGold]

8%?

[danny]

Ah. Like what percentage of the vote is that though?

The results keep being updated and they don't say so I would have to calculate from estimated turnout each time.
turnout was 71.8% from 5.882M so anyone can calculate from that.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Any way of telling which areas have been counted so far?

[Famous Mortimer]

Is the exit poll track record with predicting Arab turnout/numbers any different from their track record with the country as a whole?

What I'm asking is, and I know it's not likely, but is there any chance Joint List ends up getting like 16 seats because pollsters weren't paying attention to those areas?

[danny]

After 807K votes (%):

Likud: 24.85
ZU: 19.24
YA: 8.61
Kulanu: 7.65
JL: 7.36
JH: 6.23
Lieberman: 6.13
Shas: 5.97
UTJ: 5.23
Meretz: 4.06
Yachad: 3.03

[Rocky Rockefeller]

Geez, what happened to Zionist Union?

[danny]

Is the exit poll track record with predicting Arab turnout/numbers any different from their track record with the country as a whole?

What I'm asking is, and I know it's not likely, but is there any chance Joint List ends up getting like 16 seats because pollsters weren't paying attention to those areas?

I can't imagine such a thing happening, there wasn't such an underestimation in previous elections (usually it is the Haredi that get a little more in the end, but not as extreme as this).