Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[danny]

Geez, what happened to Zionist Union?

They did fine, and went over their polls, it's the Likud that really jumped more than anything.

[Bacon King]

Any way of telling which areas have been counted so far?

http://votes20.gov.il/nationalresults

if you don't have google translate on your browser, the two links at the bottom are to excel spreadsheets that stay updated with the latest results, showing results by by precinct (upper file) and by town (lower file)

[BaconBacon96]

So would it be fair to say Netanyahu's rightward shift worked?

[Famous Mortimer]

So would it be fair to say Netanyahu's rightward shift worked?

It worked in that it made Likud the largest party. I didn't much increase the right's overall vote though.

[danny]

So would it be fair to say Netanyahu's rightward shift worked?

Definitely, together with a perceived danger to the right that encouraged voting for Bibi to avoid a left wing government.

[ag]

After he cannibalized his partners like this, I have to imagine that Lieberman and Bennet are fuming about Netanyahu. It'll be an awkward coalition.

It will not be a coalition. Netanyahu will break every promise he´s made in the last 48 hours and will go into grand coalition.

[ag]

Any way of telling which areas have been counted so far?

http://votes20.gov.il/nationalresults

if you don't have google translate on your browser, the two links at the bottom are to excel spreadsheets that stay updated with the latest results, showing results by by precinct (upper file) and by town (lower file)

The problem is to read the headings in those files. Can some Hebrew speaker enlighten us on how much of Haifa has been counted?

[danny]

Any way of telling which areas have been counted so far?

http://votes20.gov.il/nationalresults

if you don't have google translate on your browser, the two links at the bottom are to excel spreadsheets that stay updated with the latest results, showing results by by precinct (upper file) and by town (lower file)

The problem is to read the headings in those files. Can some Hebrew speaker enlighten us on how much of Haifa has been counted?

126K votes from Haifa, there 243K with the right to vote, but no way of knowing how many actually voted. But it's more total votes than were counted in either Jerusalem or Tel Aviv, so obviously a much higher percent.

[danny]

After 1.993M votes (should be 47.2% of the total):

Likud: 24.81
ZU: 18.87
YA: 8.8
Kulanu: 7.68
JL: 8.1
JH: 6.21
Lieberman: 5.85
Shas: 6.12
UTJ: 5.17
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 3.00

[Boston Bread]

It looks like Yachad won't make it after all.

[jaichind]

Looking at the vote count now which I assume is almost 50% of the recorded vote, Likud is over-performing exit polls by a large margin.  So far, right wing/religious parties vote share is above 51% and that does not count Kulanu.  

[MalaspinaGold]

Tel Aviv is coming in slowly...

[ag]

Looking at the vote count now which I assume is almost 50% of the recorded vote, Likud is over-performing exit polls by a large margin.  So far, right wing/religious parties vote share is above 51% and that does not count Kulanu.  

Yeah. Hopefully, they have not counted the Arab parts, etc. But it looks pretty bad.

[BaconBacon96]

Well, this is disappointing.

[danny]

After 2.099M votes (49.7% of the total):

Likud: 24.67
Zionist Union: 18.82
Yesh Atid: 8.75
Joint List: 8.3
Kulanu: 7.63
Jewish Home: 6.27
Shas: 6.12
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.8
Unuited Torah Judaism: 5.25
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 3.01

[Vosem]

After 1.993M votes (should be 47.2% of the total):

Likud: 24.81
ZU: 18.87
YA: 8.8
Kulanu: 7.68
JL: 8.1
JH: 6.21
Lieberman: 5.85
Shas: 6.12
UTJ: 5.17
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 3.00

If these numbers were final (which of course they won't be):
Likud 31
ZU 24
YA 11
JL 10
Kulanu 10
JH 8
Shas 8
YB 7
UTJ 6
Meretz 5

[ag]

With roughly 2.1 mln votes reporting it is

24.67% Likud
18.82% ZU
8.75% YA
8.30% JL
7.63% Kulanu
6.27% JH
6.12% Shas
5.80% YB
5.25% UTJ
3.80% Meretz
3.01% Yachad

Update: sorry did not see the update above while posting this.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the Joint Arab List gets third place when all is said and done, the Arabs who voted should be proud of themselves.  Though I have no problem with them being fourth.

[jaichind]

Looks like ZU friendly area votes are coming in, Likud is falling while ZU is rising.  Yachad is also rising and might have shot at hitting 3.25% if trends continues.

[danny]

After 2.426M votes (57.5% of the total):

Likud: 24.46
Zionist Union: 19.03
Yesh Atid: 8.85
Joint List: 8.39
Kulanu: 7.62
Jewish Home: 6.27
Shas: 6.08
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.62
Unuited Torah Judaism: 5.22
Meretz: 3.93
Yachad: 3.03

[jaichind]

It seems obvious that Likud will end as the largest party and will form the government. It is likely ZU will narrow the gap but I do not see how ZU can close it.

[jaichind]

Yachad at 3.1% now. 

[danny]

There is still a lot of Jerusalem still out where Yachad is getting over 7% of the vote so far, so they still have hopes.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Could somebody please explain to me what the hell Netanyahu's appeal is? His specifically, not the Israeli right's in general. I've heard references to 'rallying around the flag' in relation to this in the past, but rallying around the flag only happens if there's a feeling of imminent crisis. Currently all of Israel's traditional enemies are actually cobelligerents against a common foe (ISIS), yet part of Netanyahu's platform seems to be refusing to even try to take advantage of this. Is he just keeping Israel, or a large enough segment of the Israeli population to keep electing him, in a state of perpetual perceived peril? (Immediate peril, not long-term peril; the latter is actually a reasonable understanding of Israel's situation.) If so, how?

[Famous Mortimer]

Could somebody please explain to me what the hell Netanyahu's appeal is? His specifically, not the Israeli right's in general. I've heard references to 'rallying around the flag' in relation to this in the past, but rallying around the flag only happens if there's a feeling of imminent crisis. Currently all of Israel's traditional enemies are actually cobelligerents against a common foe (ISIS), yet part of Netanyahu's platform seems to be refusing to even try to take advantage of this. Is he just keeping Israel, or a large enough segment of the Israeli population to keep electing him, in a state of perpetual perceived peril? (Immediate peril, not long-term peril; the latter is actually a reasonable understanding of Israel's situation.) If so, how?

Why do you assume the general appeal of the Israeli right is not enough?