Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[jaichind]

I guess the lesson of this election is last minute but desperate appeals based on the politics of identity works.

[jaichind]

In retrospect the moving up of the threshold to 3.25% was genius.   It provoked a merger of a large pan-Arab party which then was used as a bogeyman for Likud.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Could somebody please explain to me what the hell Netanyahu's appeal is? His specifically, not the Israeli right's in general. I've heard references to 'rallying around the flag' in relation to this in the past, but rallying around the flag only happens if there's a feeling of imminent crisis. Currently all of Israel's traditional enemies are actually cobelligerents against a common foe (ISIS), yet part of Netanyahu's platform seems to be refusing to even try to take advantage of this. Is he just keeping Israel, or a large enough segment of the Israeli population to keep electing him, in a state of perpetual perceived peril? (Immediate peril, not long-term peril; the latter is actually a reasonable understanding of Israel's situation.) If so, how?

Why do you assume the general appeal of the Israeli right is not enough?

What surprises me is that Netanyahu's jaw-droppingly awful policies, inability to get along with others, and general repulsiveness don't seem to reduce the right's appeal appreciably.

[ag]

Yeah, it seems the exit polls were off. Though the percentage gap between the Likud and ZU is slowly decreasing, in absolute terms it is, actually, growing. Hard to see it closing on what is left.

[ag]

With over 2.9 mln votes

24.18% Likud
19.06% ZU
8.87% YA
8.85% JL
7.57% Kulanu
6.40% JH
6.00% Shas
5.44% YB
5.14% UTJ
3.92% Meretz
3.09% Yachad

[Famous Mortimer]

I'm beyond shocked that not only is Yesh Atid still a thing, it's actually coming in third.

[danny]

After 3.188M votes (75.5% of the total):

Likud: 24.12
Zionist Union: 19.36
Yesh Atid: 9.01
Joint List: 8.67
Kulanu: 7.6
Jewish Home: 6.39
Shas: 5.92
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.35
Unuited Torah Judaism: 5.06
Meretz: 4.02
Yachad: 3.04

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

So Zionist Union underperformed by what, 5 percent?

[danny]

I'm beyond shocked that not only is Yesh Atid still a thing, it's actually coming in third.

Lapid is a great campaigner.

[ag]

With just under 3.2 mln votes

24.12% Likud
19.36% ZU
9.01% YA
8.67% JL
7.60% Kulanu
6.39% JH
5.92% Shas
5.35% YB
5.06% UTJ
4.02% Meretz
3.04% Yachad

[ag]

So Zionist Union underperformed by what, 5 percent?

Compared to what?

Chances are, they will get about 25 seats, still.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, they're still looking at the upper range of their election period polls even if maybe the exit polls overestimated them a tad (but then I always expect Labor to drop a couple of seats overnight). The news, so to speak, is elsewhere.

[Vosem]

Right now, Likud leads Zionist Union, 30-24. ZU is performing exactly as they were supposed to; it is Likud which surged. Also, while Yesh Atid is in third place, they are only at 11 seats, which is a little less than they were supposed to get; this looks more impressive than it is because Joint List was supposed to do even better than that, and they are also at just 11 (and slightly behind Yesh in the popular vote).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which areas are still uncounted, incidentally?

[danny]

After 3.202M votes (75.82% of the total):

Likud: 24.13
Zionist Union: 19.35
Yesh Atid: 9.01
Joint List: 8.67
Kulanu: 7.59
Jewish Home: 6.39
Shas: 5.93
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.35
Unuited Torah Judaism: 5.05
Meretz: 4.02
Yachad: 3.05

[Comrade Funk]

This is depressing. Oh well, six years of failure. You want more? Have it. This is probably giving Hannity and the neocons an erection.

[danny]

Which areas are still uncounted, incidentally?

There isn't an obvious way of knowing (other than soldiers, prisoners, Hospital patients and embassy workers, that will be counted later).

[jaichind]

Hmmm.  Now it looks harder and harder for Yachad to get to 3.25. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There isn't an obvious way of knowing (other than soldiers, prisoners, Hospital patients and embassy workers, that will be counted later).

Worth a try

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Joint List pulls ahead of Yesh Atid.

[danny]

After 3.431M votes (81.25% of the total):

Likud: 23.87
Zionist Union: 19.09
Joint List: 9.36
Yesh Atid: 8.9
Kulanu: 7.53
Jewish Home: 6.41
Shas: 5.90
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.33
Unuited Torah Judaism: 5.11
Meretz: 3.97
Yachad: 3.07

[ag]

3.4 mln votes

23.87% Likud
19.09% ZU
9.36% JL
8.90% JL
7.53% Kulanu
6.41% JH
5.90% Shas
5.33% YB
5.11% UTJ
3.97% Meretz
3.07% Yachad

[Comrade Funk]

Ok. Just got to accept Netanyahu is PM, and Israel will continued to be isolated.

So does this spell the end of Herzog? Netanyahu's personality completely dominated the election. I think the Left needs someone more charismatic/stronger than Herzog, as much as Herzog is a good man imo. Any Israelis have anyone is mind? Someone Netanyahu can't bully. I don't think a younger politician more focused on social issues would work.

[MalaspinaGold]

Ok. Just got to accept Netanyahu is PM, and Israel will continued to be isolated.

So does this spell the end of Herzog? Netanyahu's personality completely dominated the election. I think the Left needs someone more charismatic/stronger than Herzog, as much as Herzog is a good man imo. Any Israelis have anyone is mind? Someone Netanyahu can't bully. I don't think a younger politician more focused on social issues would work.

They tried that with Yachimovich and failed epically.

[jaichind]

So far JL vote is barely higher than the sum of its parts in 2013.  By my calculation in 2013 the right-wing/religious parties got 49.33% in 2013.  So far it is 49.69% without counting Kulanu.  This means that either Kulanu go a lot of the non-right wing vote or the extra higher turnout are latent center-right voters.  Most likely both.