Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

Ok. Just got to accept Netanyahu is PM, and Israel will continued to be isolated.

So does this spell the end of Herzog? Netanyahu's personality completely dominated the election. I think the Left needs someone more charismatic/stronger than Herzog, as much as Herzog is a good man imo. Any Israelis have anyone is mind? Someone Netanyahu can't bully. I don't think a younger politician more focused on social issues would work.

Party constitution says there has to be a leadership election within 8 months after an election if they don't join the government. Even if they do join the government though, that will also make a leadership challenge likely, especially since Herzog is already on the right of his caucus.

The options at this point are either Yachimovich or some random general.

So they might as well stick with Herzog.

[danny]

After 3.571M votes (84.56% of the total):

Likud: 23.73
Zionist Union: 19.06
Joint List: 9.63
Yesh Atid: 8.92
Kulanu: 7.53
Jewish Home: 6.4
Shas: 5.88
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.26
Unuited Torah Judaism: 5.15
Meretz: 3.95
Yachad: 3.04

[Famous Mortimer]

Ok. Just got to accept Netanyahu is PM, and Israel will continued to be isolated.

So does this spell the end of Herzog? Netanyahu's personality completely dominated the election. I think the Left needs someone more charismatic/stronger than Herzog, as much as Herzog is a good man imo. Any Israelis have anyone is mind? Someone Netanyahu can't bully. I don't think a younger politician more focused on social issues would work.

Party constitution says there has to be a leadership election within 8 months after an election if they don't join the government. Even if they do join the government though, that will also make a leadership challenge likely, especially since Herzog is already on the right of his caucus.

The options at this point are either Yachimovich or some random general.

So they might as well stick with Herzog.

[Vosem]

Ok. Just got to accept Netanyahu is PM, and Israel will continued to be isolated.

So does this spell the end of Herzog? Netanyahu's personality completely dominated the election. I think the Left needs someone more charismatic/stronger than Herzog, as much as Herzog is a good man imo. Any Israelis have anyone is mind? Someone Netanyahu can't bully. I don't think a younger politician more focused on social issues would work.

I don't think so; Herzog may stay. Even if the Zionist Union doesn't improve from where it is now (24 seats and second place), this is clearly the best result for Labor since 1999, when they won 26 seats and their last first place to date. This is their first second place since 2006, and their first >20 result since 1999. Considering Yachimovich was barely thrown out after 2013 (which she sold as an improvement compared to 2009), when the Labor Party significantly underperformed in polling, I doubt Herzog will be thrown out after performing roughly as they were supposed to. I think he gets another shot whenever the next election is.

[ag]

So, if I am doing my calculation right here is the distribution of the seats so far (updated for latest results and prior miscalculations)

Likud 29
ZU 24
JL13
YA 11
Kulanu 9
JH 8
Shas 7
UTJ 7
YB 7
Meretz 5

[danny]

After 3.745M votes (88.69% of the total):

Likud: 23.56
Zionist Union: 18.91
Joint List: 10.13
Yesh Atid: 8.87
Kulanu: 7.49
Jewish Home: 6.37
Shas: 5.88
United Torah Judaism: 5.23
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.22
Meretz: 3.91
Yachad: 3.02

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

So its all up to Kulanu now.

[Angel of Death]

Netanyahu hanging on to power is in the best interests of the Palestinians. Otherwise, there'd be a fresh face who can play good cop in front of the world for quite some time, while absolutely nothing changes.

[jaichind]

So, if I am doing my calculation right here is the distribution of the seats so far

Likud 30
ZU 24
JL12
YA 11
Kulanu 9
JH 8
Shas 8
YB 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 5

This cannot be right although I do not claim to know how to do the computations correctly.  These numbers add up to 121. 

[Foucaulf]

A PSA that an Israeli twitter page has been posting Knesset projections for the past few hours. Their last seat projection is the same as ag's, but with one less Shas seat and seats going from YB and Meretz to Kulanu and Joint List.

A ZU + Yesh Atid + Kulanu + Meretz (+ Joint List) coalition is still possible, gathering 62 seats.

[Famous Mortimer]

UTJ with 6 probably.

[danny]

After 3.828M votes (90.63% of the total):

Likud: 23.46
Zionist Union: 18.79
Joint List: 10.51
Yesh Atid: 8.82
Kulanu: 7.47
Jewish Home: 6.35
Shas: 5.89
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.20
United Torah Judaism: 5.19
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 3.01

[ag]

And a few votes more it is now

Likud: 23.46
Zionist Union: 18.79
Joint List: 10.51
Yesh Atid: 8.82
Kulanu: 7.47
Jewish Home: 6.35
Shas: 5.89
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.20
United Torah Judaism: 5.19
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 3.01

[ag]

So, if I am doing my calculation right here is the distribution of the seats so far

Likud 30
ZU 24
JL12
YA 11
Kulanu 9
JH 8
Shas 8
YB 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 5

This cannot be right although I do not claim to know how to do the computations correctly.  These numbers add up to 121. 

Corrected the original post already.

[danny]

A PSA that an Israeli twitter page has been posting Knesset projections for the past few hours. Their last seat projection is the same as ag's, but with one seat to Kulanu instead of YB.

A ZU + Yesh Atid + Kulanu + Meretz (+ Joint List) coalition is still possible, gathering 62 seats.

Only hypothetically, in the real world it is completely impossible, the Joint List don't want to join the coalition so it simply can't happen.

[jaichind]

So its all up to Kulanu now.

Even if Kulanu wants to go with ZU it cannot.  It would look bad for them not to back the largest party in my view.

[danny]

So its all up to Kulanu now.

Not really, with these results they have to go with the Likud, no one else can form a coalition.

[danny]

After 3.854M votes (91.27% of the total):

Likud: 23.45
Zionist Union: 18.82
Joint List: 10.54
Yesh Atid: 8.83
Kulanu: 7.47
Jewish Home: 6.35
Shas: 5.87
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.20
United Torah Judaism: 5.16
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 3.00

[ag]

Still the same distribution, if I get it right. But JL is now at 13.23 quotas. There is still an outside chance for the 14th seat.

Likud 29
ZU 24
JL13
YA 11
Kulanu 9
JH 8
Shas 7
UTJ 7
YB 7
Meretz 5

[danny]

Still the same distribution, if I get it right. But JL is now at 13.23 quotas. There is still an outside chance for the 14th seat.

Likud 29
ZU 24
JL13
YA 11
Kulanu 9
JH 8
Shas 7
UTJ 7
YB 7
Meretz 5

Once you count the surplus agreements, Meretz and YB lose 1, Kulanu and Likud gain 1.

[danny]

After 3.908M votes (92.53% of the total):

Likud: 23.38
Zionist Union: 18.78
Joint List: 10.76
Yesh Atid: 8.81
Kulanu: 7.45
Jewish Home: 6.37
Shas: 5.84
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.20
United Torah Judaism: 5.13
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 2.99

[Famous Mortimer]

What did the surplus agreements end up being?

[ag]

Looks like a new Netanyahu government at this point. No reason for sharing.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What the f**k is wrong with this country.

[danny]

What did the surplus agreements end up being?

Likud-JH
Shas-UTJ
Kulanu-YB
ZU-Meretz
YA and JL were left without one.