Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[ag]

JL at 12.5 quotas. A little extra push and the 14th seat may be in sight (to be taken from either YB or UTJ).

[danny]

After 3.961M votes (93.8% of the total):

Likud: 23.29
Zionist Union: 18.77
Joint List: 10.89
Yesh Atid: 8.79
Kulanu: 7.42
Jewish Home: 6.42
Shas: 5.81
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.19
United Torah Judaism: 5.15
Meretz: 3.87
Yachad: 2.98

[Famous Mortimer]

JL at 12.5 quotas. A little extra push and the 14th seat may be in sight (to be taken from either YB or UTJ).

Will be interested to see what the results would have been had JL agreed to the vote share agreement with Meretz.

[ag]

JL at 12.5 quotas. A little extra push and the 14th seat may be in sight (to be taken from either YB or UTJ).

Will be interested to see what the results would have been had JL agreed to the vote share agreement with Meretz.

At this point it seems JL would have picked up a seat, but off ZU. So, the only losers are the ones who are to blame, in this case. YA is at 11.03 quotas, so it is a useless partner.

[ag]

Still the same distribution, if I get it right. But JL is now at 13.23 quotas. There is still an outside chance for the 14th seat.

Likud 29
ZU 24
JL13
YA 11
Kulanu 9
JH 8
Shas 7
UTJ 7
YB 7
Meretz 5

Once you count the surplus agreements, Meretz and YB lose 1, Kulanu and Likud gain 1.

I thought I did count. This tells me I am misunderstanding how these work. Could you show the calculation?

[ag]

So its all up to Kulanu now.

Not really, with these results they have to go with the Likud, no one else can form a coalition.

They could insist on the grand coaltion, of course. But, yeah, no reason.

[Vosem]

Right now, it looks like:
Likud 29
Zionist Union 23
Joint List 14
Yesh Atid 11
Kulanu 9
Jewish Home 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Meretz 5

If surplus-vote agreements weren't a thing, ZU would have one more seat, and UTJ one less. That would be the only difference.

[Famous Mortimer]

Kahlon gets Economics Ministry. Likud keeps the big ones. Everyone else gets crap ministries like construction or religious affairs. Probably.

[Donerail]

So the question now seems to be, does Netanyahu want to just deal with Labor & Kulanu, or does he want to try to manage Bennett, Lieberman, Kahlon, and the ultra-Orthodox? The latter makes more sense, but I can't imagine it'll be pleasant given how he seemed to try to cannibalize Bennett's seats for the sake of padding his own margins.

[ag]

13.75 quotas for JL, but still no champaigne. A bit more!

[ag]

Right now, it looks like:
Likud 29
Zionist Union 23
Joint List 14
Yesh Atid 11
Kulanu 9
Jewish Home 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Meretz 5

If surplus-vote agreements weren't a thing, ZU would have one more seat, and UTJ one less. That would be the only difference.

I am misunderstanding something about the agreements. Could you describe again how they work?

By largest average ZU gets the seat from Meretz, not the other way around. What am I doing wrong?

[Famous Mortimer]

A coalition with just Likud, Labor, and one other is not possible. The Labor caucus is too far to the left, they will eventually rebel.

He needs the ultra-Orthodox at least and he always wants them.

[danny]

After 3.986M votes (94.39% of the total):

Likud: 23.26
Zionist Union: 18.76
Joint List: 10.96
Yesh Atid: 8.79
Kulanu: 7.42
Jewish Home: 6.42
Shas: 5.80
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.18
United Torah Judaism: 5.14
Meretz: 3.88
Yachad: 2.98

[danny]

Still the same distribution, if I get it right. But JL is now at 13.23 quotas. There is still an outside chance for the 14th seat.

Likud 29
ZU 24
JL13
YA 11
Kulanu 9
JH 8
Shas 7
UTJ 7
YB 7
Meretz 5

Once you count the surplus agreements, Meretz and YB lose 1, Kulanu and Likud gain 1.

I thought I did count. This tells me I am misunderstanding how these work. Could you show the calculation?

I'm not doing any I was getting it off the Israeli guy that was linked to before, but now he says that Likud lost a seat to JL (29-14).

[Vosem]

Right now, it looks like:
Likud 29
Zionist Union 23
Joint List 14
Yesh Atid 11
Kulanu 9
Jewish Home 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Meretz 5

If surplus-vote agreements weren't a thing, ZU would have one more seat, and UTJ one less. That would be the only difference.

I am misunderstanding something about the agreements. Could you describe again how they work?

By largest average ZU gets the seat from Meretz, not the other way around. What am I doing wrong?

I'm probably wrong in some way about how they work as well; I just assumed Meretz would get the seat since they have more remainder (.86 to .56) than Zionist Union does

[ag]

Still the same distribution, if I get it right. But JL is now at 13.23 quotas. There is still an outside chance for the 14th seat.

Likud 29
ZU 24
JL13
YA 11
Kulanu 9
JH 8
Shas 7
UTJ 7
YB 7
Meretz 5

Once you count the surplus agreements, Meretz and YB lose 1, Kulanu and Likud gain 1.

I thought I did count. This tells me I am misunderstanding how these work. Could you show the calculation?

I'm not doing any I was getting it off the Israeli guy that was linked to before, but now he says that Likud lost a seat to JL (29-14).

My calculation still is giving ZU 24 and JL 13. The difference is, clearly, on how I am treating the ZU-Meretz agreement. So, I am trying to figure out what is the exact procedure.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Time to cut all foreign aid for this racist America hating country.  Seriously, they just re-elected the guy who said this?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[ag]

Right now, it looks like:
Likud 29
Zionist Union 23
Joint List 14
Yesh Atid 11
Kulanu 9
Jewish Home 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Meretz 5

If surplus-vote agreements weren't a thing, ZU would have one more seat, and UTJ one less. That would be the only difference.

I am misunderstanding something about the agreements. Could you describe again how they work?

By largest average ZU gets the seat from Meretz, not the other way around. What am I doing wrong?

I'm probably wrong in some way about how they work as well; I just assumed Meretz would get the seat since they have more remainder (.86 to .56) than Zionist Union does

It is the largest average, not the largest remainder. So ZU gets that one, and Meretz picks up its own from the general surplus. But JL, even with 13.80 quotas still has 33,466 voters per seat, whereas UTJ has 33,805, so it gets the last seat, if I am doing my calculation right. JL needs just a tiny bit more.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

So is the likely Netanyahu coalition comprised of Likud+JH+UTJ+YB+Shas+Kulanu?

[ag]

So is the likely Netanyahu coalition comprised of Likud+JH+UTJ+YB+Shas+Kulanu?

Yep. Unless Kahlon insists on the grand coalition - though I have a hard time seeing why would he.

[DavidB.]

Lol, this election has been extremely funny but the crying leftist people over here might even be funnier. It's a shame that my party, the Jewish Home, has been losing some seats, but it's happened for the greater good and Bennett will get a good Ministry anyway - probably Defense. I hope Likud will get this extra seat - number 30.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

With JL unlikely to participate in any government, is a minority government that has a plurality of the non-JL seats possible, or does the Israeli constitution mandate a new government have a majority of the whole number of seats?  (That is, would 54 seats be enough, and if so could the left pull that off?)

[ag]

JL has already counted more votes than Labor received in 2013. They will have to be taken seriously.

[Vosem]

Right now, it looks like:
Likud 29
Zionist Union 23
Joint List 14
Yesh Atid 11
Kulanu 9
Jewish Home 8
Shas 7
Yisrael Beiteinu 7
United Torah Judaism 7
Meretz 5

If surplus-vote agreements weren't a thing, ZU would have one more seat, and UTJ one less. That would be the only difference.

I am misunderstanding something about the agreements. Could you describe again how they work?

By largest average ZU gets the seat from Meretz, not the other way around. What am I doing wrong?

I'm probably wrong in some way about how they work as well; I just assumed Meretz would get the seat since they have more remainder (.86 to .56) than Zionist Union does

It is the largest average, not the largest remainder. So ZU gets that one, and Meretz picks up its own from the general surplus. But JL, even with 13.80 quotas still has 33,466 voters per seat, whereas UTJ has 33,805, so it gets the last seat, if I am doing my calculation right. JL needs just a tiny bit more.

What exactly do you mean by largest average? Wikipedia isn't helping me here, unfortunately. My best guess is that you mean the larger of the two parties, but I feel like that's incorrect.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Would Yesh Atid be a possible coalition partner instead of some of the Orthodox parties, or instead of Kulanu?