Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[danny]

After 3.997M votes (94.66% of the total):

Likud: 23.24
Zionist Union: 18.77
Joint List: 11
Yesh Atid: 8.79
Kulanu: 7.42
Jewish Home: 6.41
Shas: 5.79
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.17
United Torah Judaism: 5.13
Meretz: 3.89
Yachad: 2.97

[ag]

With JL unlikely to participate in any government, is a minority government that has a plurality of the non-JL seats possible, or does the Israeli constitution mandate a new government have a majority of the whole number of seats?  (That is, would 54 seats be enough, and if so could the left pull that off?)

JL could always either abstain, or even vote to support a government. It is just that the numbers are too good for Netanyahu for this to happen this time. Though, if JL stays, it might happen in a few years.

[Sumner 1868]

Blame Barak.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Given certain issues even that lineup doesn't look exactly stable.

Anyway, shame about the overnight seat movements, but this is overall a significantly better result than I would have expected last year, so...

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

I'm glad to see that the Democratic party's second attempt to swing an Israeli election has failed miserably, unlike their first attempt under Clinton which led to the election of Barak.

[danny]

Would Yesh Atid be a possible coalition partner instead of some of the Orthodox parties, or instead of Kulanu?

Kulanu was always almost certain to be included in any coalition anyway, regardless of the other coalition members. At to the Haredi parties, Bibi would probably prefer them to Lapid, but it is theoretically possible whilst highly unlikely.

[ag]

Given certain issues even that lineup doesn't look exactly stable.

Anyway, shame about the overnight seat movements, but this is overall a significantly better result than I would have expected last year, so...

Likud plus YB together have gained 5 seats. True, at the cost of JH losing 4 and another 4 going down the drain because Yachad failed the threshold (but they did get almost 3% of the vote: so that is still there). Arabs/Hadash gain 2 (may be 3, if they get that last one off UTJ), Labor/Hatnuah together gain 3 and Meretz looses 1. YA looses 8, but 9 are picked up by Kulanu. Overall, extremely small movement, it seems.

[ag]

Would Yesh Atid be a possible coalition partner instead of some of the Orthodox parties, or instead of Kulanu?

No. Lapid is a proven liar and simpleton.

If anything, he is not the one who lied.

[Vosem]

Lol, this election has been extremely funny but the crying leftist people over here might be even more funny. It's a shame that my party, the Jewish Home, has been losing some seats, but it's happened for the greater good and Bennett will get a good Ministry anyway - probably Defense. I hope Likud will get this extra seat - number 30.

I strongly, strongly doubt Bennett will receive Defense. Likud will be a larger presence in this government than in the last one, while Jewish Home will be less important, so I can't imagine them giving up the Defense post. It will most likely be Ya'alon again.

JL has already counted more votes than Labor received in 2013. They will have to be taken seriously.

Let's see them stay together first. The reason the Joint List is so remarkable and historic is that the groups within it have never allied before -- certainly not in Israel, probably not in any other country either.

Would Yesh Atid be a possible coalition partner instead of some of the Orthodox parties, or instead of Kulanu?

Instead of the Orthodox parties is a possibility, considering Lieberman really doesn't want to sit with Orthodox parties and Bennett isn't much of a fan of them either, but it's unlikely, since Lapid has broadly aligned himself with ZU and Meretz during the campaign, didn't get along with Bibi when they were in government, and that Bibi has preferred alliances with Orthodox parties in the past. It wouldn't be as surprising as Labor joining Netanyahu back in 2009, though.

Instead of Kulanu would mean a coalition of Lapid together with the Orthodox parties, and that is extremely doubtful.

[Sumner 1868]

So the last-minute "no statehood" pledge worked?

[DavidB.]

So these polls don't take into account soldiers' votes yet? Does that mean that Likud will probably get another seat?

[ag]

In the race for the last seat JL has an average of 33,514 and UTJ is at 33,853. Very close, but, likely, not to be enough.

Ah, and 4 mln. votes have been counted.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So the last-minute "no statehood" pledge worked?

And the blaming Americans for having the Arabs vote.

[ag]

So these polls don't take into account soldiers' votes yet? Does that mean that Likud will probably get another seat?

Everybody is drafted, except for Arabs and (so far) the Haredi. So, it is not clear who is getting an extra seat (Likud would not be the prime candidate), but, yeah, JL is not likely to get its 14th (though UTJ is likely to loose its 7th).

[MalaspinaGold]

The no statehood pledge brought Jewish Home members to likud to prop it up. That's why JH lost a third of its strength. It also possibly explains why Yachad missed the threshold.

It doesn't explain why Likud hit 29 seats though...

[ag]

So the last-minute "no statehood" pledge worked?

Yep. And, BTW, very likely it is exactly the one that is going to hold. Because another 10 years, and the Arabs will not be asking for a state.

[DavidB.]

So these polls don't take into account soldiers' votes yet? Does that mean that Likud will probably get another seat?

Everybody is drafted, except for Arabs and (so far) the Haredi. So, it is not clear who is getting an extra seat (Likud would not be the prime candidate), but, yeah, JL is not likely to get its 14th (though UTJ is likely to loose its 7th).

I know, but that makes a 14th JL seat less likely - and a 7th UTJ seat as well, indeed.

[Sumner 1868]

So the last-minute "no statehood" pledge worked?

Yep. And, BTW, very likely it is exactly the one that is going to hold. Because another 10 years, and the Arabs will not be asking for a state.

I'm 99.999999999999% certain that isn't going to be the case.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Is it more likely that Kahlon will recommend Netanyahu or Herzog, because at this point it looks like he will be the Kingmaker

[Vosem]

So these polls don't take into account soldiers' votes yet? Does that mean that Likud will probably get another seat?

Everybody is drafted, except for Arabs and (so far) the Haredi. So, it is not clear who is getting an extra seat (Likud would not be the prime candidate), but, yeah, JL is not likely to get its 14th (though UTJ is likely to loose its 7th).

"Envelope vote" includes several different groups, including soldiers but also prisoners. Last year, the result was to shift a single Knesset seat from the United Arab List (Ra'am) to the Jewish Home. But they were both on the line. Considering there are very few Haredi soldiers or prisoners in Israel, but Arabs are overrepresented in the prison population, I don't think it's out of the question that the envelope vote has the opposite effect this year and shifts a seat from United Torah Judaism to the Joint List -- it's only a few hundred votes that need to be made up.

The no statehood pledge brought Jewish Home members to likud to prop it up. That's why JH lost a third of its strength. It also possibly explains why Yachad missed the threshold.

It doesn't explain why Likud hit 29 seats though...

In the poll average, Likud was at 21-24 seats; let's say they were slightly underestimated, and they were at the high end of that. Let's say they got a seat from Bibi convincing non-voters to vote for him with his announcement, another three from JH, and another from Yahad. It quite easily adds up to 29.

[DavidB.]

Is it more likely that Kahlon will recommend Netanyahu or Herzog, because at this point it looks like he will be the Kingmaker

If Bibi gets 29-30 seats and Buji 24, Kahlon will definitely nominate Bibi.

[ag]

Let's see them stay together first. The reason the Joint List is so remarkable and historic is that the groups within it have never allied before -- certainly not in Israel, probably not in any other country either.

So far, JL has 11% of the vote. Last time 3 lists it united got 9.2%. In 2009 it was 9.2% as well. In 2006 it was 8.1%. In 2003 it was 7.3% and 7.9% in 1999. This is a lot more than merely uniting.

Ethnic minorities frequently unite in strange blocks. There is nothing unusual here.

[DavidB.]

So these polls don't take into account soldiers' votes yet? Does that mean that Likud will probably get another seat?

Everybody is drafted, except for Arabs and (so far) the Haredi. So, it is not clear who is getting an extra seat (Likud would not be the prime candidate), but, yeah, JL is not likely to get its 14th (though UTJ is likely to loose its 7th).

"Envelope vote" includes several different groups, including soldiers but also prisoners. Last year, the result was to shift a single Knesset seat from the United Arab List (Ra'am) to the Jewish Home. But they were both on the line. Considering there are very few Haredi soldiers or prisoners in Israel, but Arabs are overrepresented in the prison population, I don't think it's out of the question that the envelope vote has the opposite effect this year and shifts a seat from United Torah Judaism to the Joint List -- it's only a few hundred votes that need to be made up.

Interesting - I didn't think about the prisoners. You're right. Thanks for explaining.

[danny]

Is it more likely that Kahlon will recommend Netanyahu or Herzog, because at this point it looks like he will be the Kingmaker

It doesn't look like that, Buji has no coalition even with Kachlon, so Bibi is king by default, Kachlon will just have to recognize it and go with Bibi like Lapid did last time.

[danny]

Map of the results:

http://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/2015/elections_map2015/