Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[ag]

Is it more likely that Kahlon will recommend Netanyahu or Herzog, because at this point it looks like he will be the Kingmaker

It doesn't look like that, Buji has no coalition even with Kachlon, so Bibi is king by default, Kachlon will just have to recognize it and go with Bibi like Lapid did last time.

He does have an option: insist on the grand coalition. There are many reasons he would, probably, prefer to got with Netanyahu, but he does have an option. So he, certainly, may bargain.

[Vosem]

So the last-minute "no statehood" pledge worked?

Yep. And, BTW, very likely it is exactly the one that is going to hold. Because another 10 years, and the Arabs will not be asking for a state.

Why not?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

So the last-minute "no statehood" pledge worked?

Yep. And, BTW, very likely it is exactly the one that is going to hold. Because another 10 years, and the Arabs will not be asking for a state.

Why not?

They might think they can take over demographically in the long run.

However, the Orthodox baby boom is likely to blunt that.

[ag]

So the last-minute "no statehood" pledge worked?

Yep. And, BTW, very likely it is exactly the one that is going to hold. Because another 10 years, and the Arabs will not be asking for a state.

I'm 99.999999999999% certain that isn't going to be the case.

Do not be that certain. Because they will be asking for the vote.

[danny]

Is it more likely that Kahlon will recommend Netanyahu or Herzog, because at this point it looks like he will be the Kingmaker

It doesn't look like that, Buji has no coalition even with Kachlon, so Bibi is king by default, Kachlon will just have to recognize it and go with Bibi like Lapid did last time.

He does have an option: insist on the grand coalition. There are many reasons he would, probably, prefer to got with Netanyahu, but he does have an option. So he, certainly, may bargain.

Kachlon doesn't need to demand such a thing, as long as there is no rotation (and with these results, there can't be), Bibi would probably prefer to add ZU, but I don't think ZU would agree, so it wouldn't matter what Kachlon wants.

[Famous Mortimer]

They won't want THEIR OWN state, they will want the whole state.

I wouldn't be surprised if they got it in the next 10 years either.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Map of the results:

http://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/2015/elections_map2015/

My Hebrew isn't perfect, what colors represent which party?

[DavidB.]

Map of the results:

http://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/2015/elections_map2015/

My Hebrew isn't perfect, what colors represent which party?

Light blue = Likud
Red = ZU
Yellow = UTJ
Light grey = Yachad
Dark grey = Shas
Rose = YB
Dark blue = Bayit Yehudi
Light green = Arabs
Purple = Kulanu

[ag]

If my calculation is right, if the threshold were 2%, Yachad would have had 4 seats, costing one each to ZU, YA, YB and UTJ. And if there were no threshold whatsoever, as in the golden days past, Ale Yarok would have taken a seat off Likud.

[DavidB.]

If my calculation is right, if the threshold were 2%, Yachad would have had 4 seats, costing one each to ZU, YA, YB and UTJ. And if there were no threshold whatsoever, as in the golden days past, Ale Yarok would have taken a seat off Likud.

Would be the best. Ale Yarok and Yachad deserve representation. Israel might need more stability but it also deserves pluralism. And outlawing soft drugs is really stupid.

[ag]

Is it more likely that Kahlon will recommend Netanyahu or Herzog, because at this point it looks like he will be the Kingmaker

It doesn't look like that, Buji has no coalition even with Kachlon, so Bibi is king by default, Kachlon will just have to recognize it and go with Bibi like Lapid did last time.

He does have an option: insist on the grand coalition. There are many reasons he would, probably, prefer to got with Netanyahu, but he does have an option. So he, certainly, may bargain.

Kachlon doesn't need to demand such a thing, as long as there is no rotation (and with these results, there can't be), Bibi would probably prefer to add ZU, but I don't think ZU would agree, so it wouldn't matter what Kachlon wants.

Well, on that you are, probably, right.

[ag]

They won't want THEIR OWN state, they will want the whole state.

I wouldn't be surprised if they got it in the next 10 years either.

No, it won't be 10 years. More like 25. But today's result makes it much more probable.

[ag]

Seems like a chunk of conservative/religious vote came in. UTJ nearly caught up with YB, and JL is lagging a bit behind now.

[Vosem]

Is there a single place in Israel where Kulanu placed first? I can find places where all other parties won, but while Kulanu has lots of second- and third-place performances, I can't find anywhere they won.

[Vosem]

Is there a single place in Israel where Kulanu placed first? I can find places where all other parties won, but while Kulanu has lots of second- and third-place performances, I can't find anywhere they won.

Nvm, I found a place -- small moshav in the north called, funnily enough, Lapidot. Results from there:

28% Kulanu
25% Likud
18% Shas
12% Zionist Union
6% Meretz
5% Yesh Atid
remainder others

Basically just a vote split. But most other parties -- even small ones like Meretz, Yahad, and Yisrael Beiteinu -- have strongholds they won overwhelmingly. Not the case for Kulanu.

[ag]

Well, that seems to be it for the night. Netanyahu won. Still hoping for the 14th seat for the JL, but, otherwise, there is not much that may happen here.

It will be a lot more fun in 2040

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

BB is Prime Minister for another 4 years with a divided parliament.

Palestine needs its own state. State by state next to Israel, isn't the answer, with these results.  

As Iran will continue to build nuke bombs, but Assad should be thrown from power.

[danny]

Is there a single place in Israel where Kulanu placed first? I can find places where all other parties won, but while Kulanu has lots of second- and third-place performances, I can't find anywhere they won.

They won in some Druze places like Daliat Al-Karmel Isfiya, Hurfesh.

[ag]

Palestine needs its own state. State by state next to Israel, isn't the answer, with these results.  

What does that mean? Are you proposing to send the non-Jews to Antarctica, or what?

[ag]

For some reason Haaretz gives 14 seats to JL and only 6 to YB. They also give 10 to Kulanu and 4 to Meretz. Who knows what I am doing wrong.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I'm glad to see that the Democratic party's second attempt to swing an Israeli election has failed miserably, unlike their first attempt under Clinton which led to the election of Barak.

Oh please. The Republicans let Netanyahu use them as a backdrop for his dishonest, bellicose, alienating, almost palpably sleazy 'statesman' theatrics because they thought it would help them score points against a president who's already a lame duck. That's significantly more abject than anything the Clinton administration did.

[danny]

After 4.016M votes (95.11% of the total, and I think the rest or almost all of it is counted tomorrow with soldiers prisoners etc.):

Likud: 23.26
Zionist Union: 18.73
Joint List: 10.98
Yesh Atid: 8.78
Kulanu: 7.41
Jewish Home: 6.41
Shas: 5.80
Yisrael Beitenu: 5.17
United Torah Judaism: 5.16
Meretz: 3.89
Yachad: 2.98

[Vosem]

Is there a single place in Israel where Kulanu placed first? I can find places where all other parties won, but while Kulanu has lots of second- and third-place performances, I can't find anywhere they won.

They won in some Druze places like Daliat Al-Karmel Isfiya, Hurfesh.

Akram Hassoon should really have been higher on the list than twelfth place

Daliyat Al-Karmel is a 38-23 victory for Kulanu over Labor; not much of a landslide by Israeli municipality standards, but impressive for Kulanu. (It's a little unreal in a democratic society to see town after town having a result of over 95% for the Joint List).

[Gass3268]

I'm glad to see that the Democratic party's second attempt to swing an Israeli election has failed miserably, unlike their first attempt under Clinton which led to the election of Barak.

Oh please. The Republicans let Netanyahu use them as a backdrop for his dishonest, bellicose, alienating, almost palpably sleazy 'statesman' theatrics because they thought it would help them score points against a president who's already a lame duck. That's significantly more abject than anything the Clinton administration did.

Good to see that someone called out that crazy statement.

[danny]

Is there a single place in Israel where Kulanu placed first? I can find places where all other parties won, but while Kulanu has lots of second- and third-place performances, I can't find anywhere they won.

They won in some Druze places like Daliat Al-Karmel Isfiya, Hurfesh.

Akram Hassoon should really have been higher on the list than twelfth place

Daliyat Al-Karmel is a 38-23 victory for Kulanu over Labor; not much of a landslide by Israeli municipality standards, but impressive for Kulanu. (It's a little unreal in a democratic society to see town after town having a result of over 95% for the Joint List).

And this is after passing Kadima over the threshold last elections, Hasson definitely deserves to get in to the Knesset, he probably brought more votes for Kulanu than the rest of the list combined (except Kachlon himself).