Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Again, what gets to me isn't so much Netanyahu's hawkishness in general as the specific fact that a major plank of his platform is, essentially, outright refusing to try to take advantage of a situation that could, if played right, give him a fighting chance of finally putting his country at peace. How come this man has yet to be run out of the Knesset on a rail?!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I have a cousin in Nir Oz who was probably one of the only people to vote for the Arab list lol

ZU got 45.5%
Meretz 35.4%
YA 9.1%
Likud 3%
JH 2%
Kulanu 2%
JL 1%
Other 2%

Surprised to see places where Meretz came in 1st or 2nd place or even above 25%, I'm even more surprised to see areas around Gaza not vote for Likud or a right-wing party, given the rockets and all, I would have expected them to support Netanyahu or Bennett, but I guess assumptions are never facts lol.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Again, what gets to me isn't so much Netanyahu's hawkishness in general as the specific fact that a major plank of his platform is, essentially, outright refusing to try to take advantage of a situation that could, if played right, give him a fighting chance of finally putting his country at peace. How come this man has yet to be run out of the Knesset on a rail?!

I think we have to question whether a plurality of Isreali people care about that.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Map of the results:

http://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/2015/elections_map2015/

My Hebrew isn't perfect, what colors represent which party?

Light blue = Likud
Red = ZU
Yellow = UTJ
Light grey = Yachad
Dark grey = Shas
Rose = YB
Dark blue = Bayit Yehudi
Light green = Arabs
Purple = Kulanu

I would call the Shas color khaki.  UAL is emerald and Meretz is pistachio.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Again, what gets to me isn't so much Netanyahu's hawkishness in general as the specific fact that a major plank of his platform is, essentially, outright refusing to try to take advantage of a situation that could, if played right, give him a fighting chance of finally putting his country at peace. How come this man has yet to be run out of the Knesset on a rail?!

I think we have to question whether a plurality of Isreali people care about that.

I have to believe that a plurality of Israeli people would rather live in a democracy at peace than a hybrid regime at perpetual war. I have to.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Again, what gets to me isn't so much Netanyahu's hawkishness in general as the specific fact that a major plank of his platform is, essentially, outright refusing to try to take advantage of a situation that could, if played right, give him a fighting chance of finally putting his country at peace. How come this man has yet to be run out of the Knesset on a rail?!

I think we have to question whether a plurality of Isreali people care about that.

I have to believe that a plurality of Israeli people would rather live in a democracy at peace than a hybrid regime at perpetual war. I have to.

I think you are correct, but he did some good fear mongering to try to consolidate the right wing base of his to turn out for him, look how Bennet and Lieberman's support fell and Yachad didn't even cross the threshold, he got lucky I'll say that.

[Vosem]

There is one side-effect of the Likud over-performance that I think we can all agree is good news: much hay was made earlier in the campaign of the fact that it seemed the next Knesset would have no Jews of Ethiopian heritage in it. However, Avraham Negosa, who is 27th on the Likud list and of Ethiopian heritage, will enter the Knesset. Negosa previously led the minor sectarian Ethiopian party, Atid Ehad, in the 2006 elections. He will replace Pnina Tamano-Shata, a Yesh Atid MK who was the sole Ethiopian in the last Knesset. Tamano-Shata was 13th on the Yesh Atid list this time, and it seems Yesh Atid have received only 11 seats.

[danny]

Surprised to see places where Meretz came in 1st or 2nd place or even above 25%, I'm even more surprised to see areas around Gaza not vote for Likud or a right-wing party, given the rockets and all, I would have expected them to support Netanyahu or Bennett, but I guess assumptions are never facts lol.

Israeli politics are first and foremost, about identity, Location itself is very minor regardless of the situation.

[danny]

There is one side-effect of the Likud over-performance that I think we can all agree is good news: much hay was made earlier in the campaign of the fact that it seemed the next Knesset would have no Jews of Ethiopian heritage in it. However, Avraham Negosa, who is 27th on the Likud list and of Ethiopian heritage, will enter the Knesset. Negosa previously led the minor sectarian Ethiopian party, Atid Ehad, in the 2006 elections. He will replace Pnina Tamano-Shata, a Yesh Atid MK who was the sole Ethiopian in the last Knesset. Tamano-Shata was 13th on the Yesh Atid list this time, and it seems Yesh Atid have received only 11 seats.

Actually YA had two Ethiopian MK's Shimon Solomon was number 12 on the list in 2013.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

There is one side-effect of the Likud over-performance that I think we can all agree is good news: much hay was made earlier in the campaign of the fact that it seemed the next Knesset would have no Jews of Ethiopian heritage in it. However, Avraham Negosa, who is 27th on the Likud list and of Ethiopian heritage, will enter the Knesset. Negosa previously led the minor sectarian Ethiopian party, Atid Ehad, in the 2006 elections. He will replace Pnina Tamano-Shata, a Yesh Atid MK who was the sole Ethiopian in the last Knesset. Tamano-Shata was 13th on the Yesh Atid list this time, and it seems Yesh Atid have received only 11 seats.

No, we would have all been better off had Likud gotten fewer than 27 seats. Preferably a lot fewer.

[Vosem]

There is one side-effect of the Likud over-performance that I think we can all agree is good news: much hay was made earlier in the campaign of the fact that it seemed the next Knesset would have no Jews of Ethiopian heritage in it. However, Avraham Negosa, who is 27th on the Likud list and of Ethiopian heritage, will enter the Knesset. Negosa previously led the minor sectarian Ethiopian party, Atid Ehad, in the 2006 elections. He will replace Pnina Tamano-Shata, a Yesh Atid MK who was the sole Ethiopian in the last Knesset. Tamano-Shata was 13th on the Yesh Atid list this time, and it seems Yesh Atid have received only 11 seats.

Actually YA had two Ethiopian MK's Shimon Solomon was number 12 on the list in 2013.

Ah, you're right, I forgot about him since he didn't run for reelection.

There is one side-effect of the Likud over-performance that I think we can all agree is good news: much hay was made earlier in the campaign of the fact that it seemed the next Knesset would have no Jews of Ethiopian heritage in it. However, Avraham Negosa, who is 27th on the Likud list and of Ethiopian heritage, will enter the Knesset. Negosa previously led the minor sectarian Ethiopian party, Atid Ehad, in the 2006 elections. He will replace Pnina Tamano-Shata, a Yesh Atid MK who was the sole Ethiopian in the last Knesset. Tamano-Shata was 13th on the Yesh Atid list this time, and it seems Yesh Atid have received only 11 seats.

No, we would have all been better off had Likud gotten fewer than 27 seats. Preferably a lot fewer.

Several other parties had Ethiopians somewhere on their list -- for instance, had Yesh Atid reached 13, the same end would've been achieved. I think you can agree with me that, in principle, the Ethiopian community is very distinct, even by Israeli standards, and that it's healthy and democratic for at least one person in the Knesset to be of Ethiopian origin. MK-elect Negusa will fulfill that role.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Sure, but I think most of our reactions to MK-elect Negusa are more 'sour grapes' than 'good news'.

[Vosem]

Sure, but I think most of our reactions to MK-elect Negusa are more 'sour grapes' than 'good news'.

Well, I'm of a different ideological strand than most of us here. But I do think it is a bright spot for anyone following the Israeli election

[danny]

It seems that Meretz head Galon will resign following the election results.

[The Mikado]

Again, what gets to me isn't so much Netanyahu's hawkishness in general as the specific fact that a major plank of his platform is, essentially, outright refusing to try to take advantage of a situation that could, if played right, give him a fighting chance of finally putting his country at peace. How come this man has yet to be run out of the Knesset on a rail?!

I think we have to question whether a plurality of Isreali people care about that.

I have to believe that a plurality of Israeli people would rather live in a democracy at peace than a hybrid regime at perpetual war. I have to.

You have heard the old saying that Israel wants three things: the West Bank, its status as a Jewish state, or democracy, and it can have any two of those? The saying is older than I am and hackeneyed as it is, there is a lot of truth in it. Israel has made it clear that the West Bank is one of its choices.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Again, what gets to me isn't so much Netanyahu's hawkishness in general as the specific fact that a major plank of his platform is, essentially, outright refusing to try to take advantage of a situation that could, if played right, give him a fighting chance of finally putting his country at peace. How come this man has yet to be run out of the Knesset on a rail?!

I think we have to question whether a plurality of Isreali people care about that.

I have to believe that a plurality of Israeli people would rather live in a democracy at peace than a hybrid regime at perpetual war. I have to.

You have heard the old saying that Israel wants three things: the West Bank, its status as a Jewish state, or democracy, and it can have any two of those? The saying is older than I am and hackeneyed as it is, there is a lot of truth in it. Israel has made it clear that the West Bank is one of its choices.

I'm in denial about that, because it's both immoral and flagrantly self-destructive in the long term, and I want to continue to have a more or less positive opinion of a country that's produced several of my friends and a lot of culture I love.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Again, what gets to me isn't so much Netanyahu's hawkishness in general as the specific fact that a major plank of his platform is, essentially, outright refusing to try to take advantage of a situation that could, if played right, give him a fighting chance of finally putting his country at peace. How come this man has yet to be run out of the Knesset on a rail?!

I think we have to question whether a plurality of Isreali people care about that.

I have to believe that a plurality of Israeli people would rather live in a democracy at peace than a hybrid regime at perpetual war. I have to.

You have heard the old saying that Israel wants three things: the West Bank, its status as a Jewish state, or democracy, and it can have any two of those? The saying is older than I am and hackeneyed as it is, there is a lot of truth in it. Israel has made it clear that the West Bank is one of its choices.

It's pretty clear that they have chosen apartheid.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Again, what gets to me isn't so much Netanyahu's hawkishness in general as the specific fact that a major plank of his platform is, essentially, outright refusing to try to take advantage of a situation that could, if played right, give him a fighting chance of finally putting his country at peace. How come this man has yet to be run out of the Knesset on a rail?!

I think we have to question whether a plurality of Isreali people care about that.

I have to believe that a plurality of Israeli people would rather live in a democracy at peace than a hybrid regime at perpetual war. I have to.

They do, but they also have come to doubt that a two-state solution is possible, and frankly I agree that the chance for a two-state solution is gone.  Possibly not forever, but certainly for the next decade at minimum.  A one-state solution with a Jewish minority isn't viable right now either, and certainly would run counter to Zionist aspirations even if it were possible.  If one thinks there currently is no option other than perpetual war, is it really surprising that some voters base their vote on who they think will best wage that war?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

So the last-minute "no statehood" pledge worked?

Yep. And, BTW, very likely it is exactly the one that is going to hold. Because another 10 years, and the Arabs will not be asking for a state.

I'm 99.999999999999% certain that isn't going to be the case.

Do not be that certain. Because they will be asking for the vote.

Asking might not be the right word to use.

[ag]

For some reason Haaretz gives 14 seats to JL and only 6 to YB. They also give 10 to Kulanu and 4 to Meretz. Who knows what I am doing wrong.

I think I figured out the mistake(s) I am making by reverse-engineering the Haaretz result. But it simply makes no sense as a system, if it is true.

One mistake I was making is that I only took into account surplus vote agreements if they resulted in a full extra quota for the two parties when treated jointly. Seems like I should also have taken into account incomplete quota surpluses: that, actually, makes sense, and accounts for the extra Kulanu seat (got from YB). What seems to make no sense is that, apparently (or am I mistaken here) that for the purposes of seat allocation the two parties are treated as one, so that the looser from the agreement is not eligible to get back in the pool for sharing the remainders. The reason this makes no sense is that this implies that not only a party can loose a seat due to the agreement to an ally - it may loose a seat to a completely unrelated party. If I am getting my numbers right, if JL signed with Meretz and ZU with YA, the net result would have been a shift of a seat from ZU to, I think, Shas! Working out how likely that is ex ante would be a nightmare, and would be based on a whole bunch of assumptions. Given that, I have hard time seeing what is the attraction of the surplus deals!

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Well, we definitely won't have a Palestinian state now if and when Netanyahu gets confirmed for PM again after what he said about Arabs and the Palestinian state today...at least while he is PM.

[ag]

It seems that Meretz head Galon will resign following the election results.

BTW, if she did not sign the ZU agreement she would have had 5 seats, I believe.

[ag]

Well, we definitely won't have a Palestinian state now if and when Netanyahu gets confirmed for PM again after what he said about Arabs and the Palestinian state today...at least while he is PM.

Sure. Of course that, probably, means his grandchildren will be citizens of a Palestinian state.

[ag]

So the last-minute "no statehood" pledge worked?

Yep. And, BTW, very likely it is exactly the one that is going to hold. Because another 10 years, and the Arabs will not be asking for a state.

I'm 99.999999999999% certain that isn't going to be the case.

Do not be that certain. Because they will be asking for the vote.

Asking might not be the right word to use.

Yeah, "demanding" would be more proper. And, BTW, once they do so, what exactly will the then Israeli government respond with? Is there, in fact, any good response to that (short of saying "yes", of course, but that is unacceptable to most Israelis).

[ag]

Again, what gets to me isn't so much Netanyahu's hawkishness in general as the specific fact that a major plank of his platform is, essentially, outright refusing to try to take advantage of a situation that could, if played right, give him a fighting chance of finally putting his country at peace. How come this man has yet to be run out of the Knesset on a rail?!

I think we have to question whether a plurality of Isreali people care about that.

I have to believe that a plurality of Israeli people would rather live in a democracy at peace than a hybrid regime at perpetual war. I have to.

You have heard the old saying that Israel wants three things: the West Bank, its status as a Jewish state, or democracy, and it can have any two of those? The saying is older than I am and hackeneyed as it is, there is a lot of truth in it. Israel has made it clear that the West Bank is one of its choices.

I'm in denial about that, because it's both immoral and flagrantly self-destructive in the long term, and I want to continue to have a more or less positive opinion of a country that's produced several of my friends and a lot of culture I love.

I am afraid, most of us will have to follow NYT's Friedman in "burying <our> illusions about the Jewish state".