Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[King]

Why would a major political party, even in Israel, call themselves the Zionist Union unironically?

[lilTommy]

"Uggghhhh" sums it all up really.

I already had a feeling that Likud might pull it off again and they did. The Left fails again in winning elections.

I already upwheighted Likud in my prediction yesterday. Now they might even finish ahead of the ZU, with the latest right-wing stunt ...

Any chance the centrist parties are still tolerating a Labour-led minority government ?

If Hatnuah ran a joint list with Labor... I don't see why Yesh Atid wouldn't support them (Centrist Secular) hell they helped Likud govern last time around! so weirder things have happened. Kulanu ran on this very working class populist tilt did it not? that was more or less what ZU was trying for. 
The problem is would ZU want to govern with the Joint List?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think we have to question whether a plurality of Isreali people care about that.

I have to believe that a plurality of Israeli people would rather live in a democracy at peace than a hybrid regime at perpetual war. I have to.

Whatever a plurality may or not think about those or indeed other issues (and a billion surveys all contradicting each other mightily can be produced at this point), the overwhelming tendency is to vote along sectional lines.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.

[ag]

regarding the uncertainty earlier in the thread about how surplus vote agreements work, this source explains it pretty well:

https://www.knesset.gov.il/lexicon/eng/seats_eng.htm

I used this very page. It is impossible to understand, to the best of my effort. At the very least, it is ambiguous on some things. I could not follow it.

Here's the full process, to my understanding:

1. Find the number of votes per seat (called the "general indicator"). Add up every vote for every list that passed the electoral threshold, then divide that number by 120.

2. Divide each list's vote total by the general indicator. Remove any decimals. This gives you the pre-surplus seat count of all the lists.

3. Parties with surplus agreements are now paired up and their votes and seats are combined for the purpose of the allocation formula. The remaining seats are allocated one at a time based on who has the biggest number for the following equation:

Number of votes for a party / (seats currently allocated to that party + 1)

4. When all 120 seats are awarded, take any seats that have been awarded to surplus agreement partners and divide them between the parties in that agreement, using the same formula as above.

Yes, it seems to be the case. In which case JL should be commended on not concluding that stupid agreement with Meretz, and, thus, saving a seat for ZU from going to Shas (?). And, BTW, Meretz should not have signed that agreement with ZU either: it would have had 5 seats otherwise (and ZU 23).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Have results by subdistrict been calculated? They were useful for mapping purposes last time round.

[palandio]

Yes, it seems to be the case. In which case JL should be commended on not concluding that stupid agreement with Meretz, and, thus, saving a seat for ZU from going to Shas (?). And, BTW, Meretz should not have signed that agreement with ZU either: it would have had 5 seats otherwise (and ZU 23).

No, it is mathematically impossible that participating in a surplus agreement results in having fewer seats. Even without the ZU+Meretz surplus agreement ZU would have got their 24th seat before Meretz would have got their 5th:
744,643 / 24 = 31,028...
154,648 / 5 = 30,929...
31,028... >  30,929...
What is true though is that if the surplus agreement results in one seat more for an alliance, then a partner that is much bigger has a higher chance of winning the extra seat (from a pre-election perspective). Hence for the smaller parties surplus agreements with other small parties are much more convenient (e.g. Meretz+Hatnuah last time).
E.g. Likud+JH made more sense for JH when JH was polling at 15 seats and Likud at 20-25 seats.
Kulanu+YB made more sense for YB before all the corruption scandals.
Shas+UTJ is kind of the perfect surplus agreement for both.
But remember: The only way a surplus agreement might harm you is in the electoral campaign, but never in the seat calculation afterwards.

[ag]

Yes, it seems to be the case. In which case JL should be commended on not concluding that stupid agreement with Meretz, and, thus, saving a seat for ZU from going to Shas (?). And, BTW, Meretz should not have signed that agreement with ZU either: it would have had 5 seats otherwise (and ZU 23).

No, it is mathematically impossible that participating in a surplus agreement results in having fewer seats. Even without the ZU+Meretz surplus agreement ZU would have got their 24th seat before Meretz would have got their 5th:
744,643 / 24 = 31,028...
154,648 / 5 = 30,929...
31,028... >  30,929...

That is absolutely true: ZU would get its seat before Meretz. But, if I get this right, even if Meretz were to be ahead of another party (say, Shas) for the purposes of average on its own, by sharing the votes with ZU it would loose its position in the line. I.e., if ZU would have gotten the seat anyway, Meretz sharing with it actually wastes some Meretz vote, which could have been used to get the next seat on its own. So, the issue is not that Meretz would have gotten the seat off ZU - it is that both parties could have gotten the seat on their own, and this way one of them yields to a third party. Why is this not possible under the system here described?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So essentially the Israeli electoral system is like the Schleswig-Holstein Question.

[palandio]

Yes, it seems to be the case. In which case JL should be commended on not concluding that stupid agreement with Meretz, and, thus, saving a seat for ZU from going to Shas (?). And, BTW, Meretz should not have signed that agreement with ZU either: it would have had 5 seats otherwise (and ZU 23).

No, it is mathematically impossible that participating in a surplus agreement results in having fewer seats. Even without the ZU+Meretz surplus agreement ZU would have got their 24th seat before Meretz would have got their 5th:
744,643 / 24 = 31,028...
154,648 / 5 = 30,929...
31,028... >  30,929...

That is absolutely true: ZU would get its seat before Meretz. But, if I get this right, even if Meretz were to be ahead of another party (say, Shas) for the purposes of average on its own, by sharing the votes with ZU it would loose its position in the line. I.e., if ZU would have gotten the seat anyway, Meretz sharing with it actually wastes some Meretz vote, which could have been used to get the next seat on its own. So, the issue is not that Meretz would have gotten the seat off ZU - it is that both parties could have gotten the seat on their own, and this way one of them yields to a third party. Why is this not possible under the system here described?

Under the assumption that Meretz and ZU have a surplus agreement, the 28th seat for the alliance would be the 24th for ZU, but the 29th seat would be the 5th for Meretz.
(744,643 + 154,648) / 29 = 31,010...
and this is more than 30,929...
which was Meretz' old quota. Hence the new quota is higher and Meretz has a better position vs. e.g. Shas than when running alone.
It can be proved that this is generally the case.

[ag]

So, it seems the final seat distribution (not sure based on which vote numbers) is

Likud 30
ZU 24
JL 14
YA 11
Kulanu 10
JH 8
Shas 7
YB 6
UTJ 6
Meretz 4

The Likud-JH-Shas-YB-UTJ-Kulanu coalition with 67 seats. And either UTJ or YB dispensible, giving Netanyahu extra bargaining power vis-a-vis them.

[Famous Mortimer]

So Labor didn't elect their Druze after all but Yisrael Beytenu did.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is Kulanu's position regarding settlements and the peace process? And on economic policy? Any chance that they could be an effective moderating force?

[Famous Mortimer]

What is Kulanu's position regarding settlements and the peace process? And on economic policy? Any chance that they could be an effective moderating force?

Peace: Hypothetically for land for peace but didn't campaign on it. Economics: Orthodox right-wing but they make en effort to say they don't hate poor people. It would be the left-wing of a right-wing coalition but I don't know how much influence it would have. I imagine most of their efforts will go economics though. They did not campaign on the peace process.

[Vosem]

So Labor didn't elect their Druze after all but Yisrael Beytenu did.

As did Likud.

Have the envelope votes been counted already? Are these results nearly final, or are they actually final final?

[palandio]

Under the assumption that Meretz and ZU have a surplus agreement, the 28th seat for the alliance would be the 24th for ZU, but the 29th seat would be the 5th for Meretz.
(744,643 + 154,648) / 29 = 31,010...
and this is more than 30,929...
which was Meretz' old quota. Hence the new quota is higher and Meretz has a better position vs. e.g. Shas than when running alone.
It can be proved that this is generally the case.

Ok, a mathematical proof would be the following:
Let m be the number of votes for Meretz, n the number of votes for ZU.
Assume that Meretz' quota for the xth seat is lower than ZU's quota for the yth seat but higher than ZU's quota for the (y+1)th seat, in formulas we get the
Assumption: n/(y+1) < m/x < n/y.    [In our case x=5 and y=24.]
We want to show that the quota that the alliance needs for it's (x+y)th seat (which would then go to Meretz) is lower than the quota that Meretz needs for ist xth seat, in formulas:
(m+n)/(x+y) > m/x.
Multiplying both sides with x and with x+y (which are both >0) we get that this in equivalent to:
x(m+n) > (x+y)m.
This is equivalent to
xn > ym
which is equivalent to
m/x < n/y
but that is true by our assumption.

[Hnv1]

Predictions for the future:
- The new threshold will lead to immersion in the blocs soon. I suspect YB and Meretz immersed in Likud and Labour before the next elections.
- not enough room in the centre. I think Lapid's time in the opposition will make YA vaporize by next time (with some of its MKs trying to get in Labour).
- Shas and UTJ are heading to internal turmoil. I believe Shas will soon be torn apart from the inside.
- Yuval Diskin is warming up on the sidelines. I think the politicos at Labour understand they need an ex-general\security figure to win an election and Diskin is by far the most likely candidate (I tend to believe Herzog will step down by his own free will).
- Sylvan Shalom will resign and leave politics soon.

[Comrade Funk]

Predictions for the future:
- The new threshold will lead to immersion in the blocs soon. I suspect YB and Meretz immersed in Likud and Labour before the next elections.
- not enough room in the centre. I think Lapid's time in the opposition will make YA vaporize by next time (with some of its MKs trying to get in Labour).
- Shas and UTJ are heading to internal turmoil. I believe Shas will soon be torn apart from the inside.
- Yuval Diskin is warming up on the sidelines. I think the politicos at Labour understand they need an ex-general\security figure to win an election and Diskin is by far the most likely candidate (I tend to believe Herzog will step down by his own free will).
- Sylvan Shalom will resign and leave politics soon.

What makes you say this? What has he done to indicate he's planning on running for leadership besides bash Netanyahu?

[ag]

Under the assumption that Meretz and ZU have a surplus agreement, the 28th seat for the alliance would be the 24th for ZU, but the 29th seat would be the 5th for Meretz.
(744,643 + 154,648) / 29 = 31,010...
and this is more than 30,929...
which was Meretz' old quota. Hence the new quota is higher and Meretz has a better position vs. e.g. Shas than when running alone.
It can be proved that this is generally the case.

Ok, a mathematical proof would be the following:
Let m be the number of votes for Meretz, n the number of votes for ZU.
Assume that Meretz' quota for the xth seat is lower than ZU's quota for the yth seat but higher than ZU's quota for the (y+1)th seat, in formulas we get the
Assumption: n/(y+1) < m/x < n/y.    [In our case x=5 and y=24.]
We want to show that the quota that the alliance needs for it's (x+y)th seat (which would then go to Meretz) is lower than the quota that Meretz needs for ist xth seat, in formulas:
(m+n)/(x+y) > m/x.
Multiplying both sides with x and with x+y (which are both >0) we get that this in equivalent to:
x(m+n) > (x+y)m.
This is equivalent to
xn > ym
which is equivalent to
m/x < n/y
but that is true by our assumption.

Before you put int the algebra, let us clarify what we are modeling. Because your equations do not correspond to how I understood the system. I am, probably, wrong. But, still,  Could you describe again the procedure for dealing with the agreements. Because I do not understand that procedure. The way I understand it is as follows

1. We calculate the full quotas and allocate the seats based on that.

2. We add up the results of the parties with the agreement. If there is an extra full quota based on that we allocate the extra seat to the pair using the largest average to decide who gets it.

3. We then do the largest average, treating each pair with an agreement as a single party. If an agreement pair gets a seat, which member of it gets that seat is determined by largest average as well.

Is that the procedure, or I am misunderstanding something? Because that was the only procedure which gave me the numbers Haaretz had yesterday with the raw votes known at the time.

[Hnv1]

Predictions for the future:
- The new threshold will lead to immersion in the blocs soon. I suspect YB and Meretz immersed in Likud and Labour before the next elections.
- not enough room in the centre. I think Lapid's time in the opposition will make YA vaporize by next time (with some of its MKs trying to get in Labour).
- Shas and UTJ are heading to internal turmoil. I believe Shas will soon be torn apart from the inside.
- Yuval Diskin is warming up on the sidelines. I think the politicos at Labour understand they need an ex-general\security figure to win an election and Diskin is by far the most likely candidate (I tend to believe Herzog will step down by his own free will).
- Sylvan Shalom will resign and leave politics soon.

What makes you say this? What has he done to indicate he's planning on running for leadership besides bash Netanyahu?

Creating a platform (facebook\ynet\yediot) to address people and making himself known along with working with party activists on V15 campaign. This was a snap election and for many reasons he couldn't get in now (and he really wanted) but next time around he will surely be in. Also by knowing how Labour works and talking to their activists. Dagan also bashes BB all the time the difference is he doesn't do any field or political work at all unlike Diskin.
The Labour politicos pushed for Herzog because they didn't have any ex-general at hand with Ashkenazi deep in the mud, Diskin will be invited in soon enough.

Also from Labour activists I gather Holdai (mayor of tel aviv) also has hopes for leadership.

[palandio]

Before you put int the algebra, let us clarify what we are modeling. Because your equations do not correspond to how I understood the system. I am, probably, wrong. But, still,  Could you describe again the procedure for dealing with the agreements. Because I do not understand that procedure. The way I understand it is as follows

1. We calculate the full quotas and allocate the seats based on that.

2. We add up the results of the parties with the agreement. If there is an extra full quota based on that we allocate the extra seat to the pair using the largest average to decide who gets it.

3. We then do the largest average, treating each pair with an agreement as a single party. If an agreement pair gets a seat, which member of it gets that seat is determined by largest average as well.

Is that the procedure, or I am misunderstanding something? Because that was the only procedure which gave me the numbers Haaretz had yesterday with the raw votes known at the time.

Yes. We could leave out step 1 and step 2 though and the results would still be the same.
It's all about calculating and ordering the averages.
And you're right that for the overall procedure an agreement is treated as a single party.
What is different in my calculations? How do your calculations look like, e.g. for the Meretz-ZU-Shas example?

[Vosem]

Also from Labour activists I gather Holdai (mayor of tel aviv) also has hopes for leadership.

Huldai's been mayor since 1998 though; he's had plenty of opportunities to seek the party leadership, or a spot in the Knesset, if he wants it, but he's never gone for it.

Anyway, I agree that Diskin wants in and that he'll probably run at the next elections, but I tend to think with his performance Herzog has earned himself a round two, and it'll be difficult for someone else to take over. But of course, I'm not Israeli and could well be mistaken.

[windjammer]

An I dreaming or the right + far right have lost seats in the end???

[jaichind]

An I dreaming or the right + far right have lost seats in the end???

Depends on your definition of "right."  Would Kulanu count as right ?