Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Comrade Funk]

Also from Labour activists I gather Holdai (mayor of tel aviv) also has hopes for leadership.

Huldai's been mayor since 1998 though; he's had plenty of opportunities to seek the party leadership, or a spot in the Knesset, if he wants it, but he's never gone for it.

Anyway, I agree that Diskin wants in and that he'll probably run at the next elections, but I tend to think with his performance Herzog has earned himself a round two, and it'll be difficult for someone else to take over. But of course, I'm not Israeli and could well be mistaken.

Herzog probably has earned it, but I think/hope he's smart enough to understand that Labor needs someone like Diskin to win. Oh well, we'll see.

[danny]

Have the envelope votes been counted already? Are these results nearly final, or are they actually final final?

Not yet, there should be a little over 200K votes left by my calculations.

[H. Ross Peron]

Why would a major political party, even in Israel, call themselves the Zionist Union unironically?

Because, like the U.S. Republican Party, Israel's Labor Party (+ Livni) are jokes that do not deserve to be major parties.

Why do you have a blue avatar in that case? Likud if anything is worse than the GOP.

[Gustaf]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.

THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist. Had ZU beaten Likud decisively they would have had a decent shot at roping in Kulanu and/or Shas/UTJ and form a government.

[Hnv1]

Also from Labour activists I gather Holdai (mayor of tel aviv) also has hopes for leadership.

Huldai's been mayor since 1998 though; he's had plenty of opportunities to seek the party leadership, or a spot in the Knesset, if he wants it, but he's never gone for it.

Anyway, I agree that Diskin wants in and that he'll probably run at the next elections, but I tend to think with his performance Herzog has earned himself a round two, and it'll be difficult for someone else to take over. But of course, I'm not Israeli and could well be mistaken.

Well it may sound unreasonable but he was pretty happy at being mayor and I don't think the playing field since 2003 (no way would a half term mayor run for PM) was all that inviting.

Earned a second round? I don't think the Labour base thinks he "deserves" a second round. They wanted Yechimovic out and he was the only viable option, he got a huge boost from the media but at the bottom line he was always a dull candidate. Labour needs an "ex-general" to win elections that's the only way for them. Plus, To be honest Herzog's performance wasn't that inspiring if by scaring people with "what will happen if Herzog will be PM?" Likud managed to grab some more seats at the final days.

We are heading towards 4 years of a narrow right wing government that by all predictions will be facing very difficult challenges on many fronts. Labour will want a security figure going into the next elections. And right now Diskin's been making the right sounds and he even looks like a half decent prospect for anti-security establishment lefty like me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.

THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist. Had ZU beaten Likud decisively they would have had a decent shot at roping in Kulanu and/or Shas/UTJ and form a government.

You mean Shas and UTJ were open to supporting a Left-wing government over a Centre-Right one when both were a possibility? I wouldn't have thought.

[ag]

Before you put int the algebra, let us clarify what we are modeling. Because your equations do not correspond to how I understood the system. I am, probably, wrong. But, still,  Could you describe again the procedure for dealing with the agreements. Because I do not understand that procedure. The way I understand it is as follows

1. We calculate the full quotas and allocate the seats based on that.

2. We add up the results of the parties with the agreement. If there is an extra full quota based on that we allocate the extra seat to the pair using the largest average to decide who gets it.

3. We then do the largest average, treating each pair with an agreement as a single party. If an agreement pair gets a seat, which member of it gets that seat is determined by largest average as well.

Is that the procedure, or I am misunderstanding something? Because that was the only procedure which gave me the numbers Haaretz had yesterday with the raw votes known at the time.

Yes. We could leave out step 1 and step 2 though and the results would still be the same.
It's all about calculating and ordering the averages.
And you're right that for the overall procedure an agreement is treated as a single party.
What is different in my calculations? How do your calculations look like, e.g. for the Meretz-ZU-Shas example?

I found one mistake in what I was doing: I was not adding 1 to the denominator in computing the highest averages.

Update: yep, it was me goofing up with that +1

And, yes, JL did cost Meretz a seat: they would have gotten an extra quota together and still there would be a large enough average to get them one seat more, so between the two they would have 19 seats (instead of one extra, 2 extras, the second going to Meretz, if I now get this right). So, GalOn is a victim of this.

[Famous Mortimer]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.

THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist. Had ZU beaten Likud decisively they would have had a decent shot at roping in Kulanu and/or Shas/UTJ and form a government.

You mean Shas and UTJ were open to supporting a Left-wing government over a Centre-Right one when both were a possibility? I wouldn't have thought.

They only would have done it if Labor came in first place. They'll go along with the plurality winner because they just want to be in power regardless. They aren't going to act as kingmaker for a runner up though, that would be seen as showing too much favor to that party and hurt future relations with the other.

[palandio]

I found one mistake in what I was doing: I was not adding 1 to the denominator in computing the highest averages.

Update: yep, it was me goofing up with that +1

And, yes, JL did cost Meretz a seat: they would have gotten an extra quota together and still there would be a large enough average to get them one seat more, so between the two they would have 19 seats (instead of one extra, 2 extras, the second going to Meretz, if I now get this right). So, GalOn is a victim of this.

Yes, it's easy to confound all of these +1 and so.
I'm still not sure whether JL did cost Meretz a seat:
JL+Meretz (436,532+154,648) / 19 = 31,111...
Shas+UTJ (230,735+205,551) / 14 = 31,163... (because that's the 120th seat as of now).

You're right though that JL+Meretz would have yielded a higher expected chance on an extra seat for Meretz because JL and Meretz are more similar in size than ZU and Meretz.

Btw there are still 200k uncounted ballots (military?) so it's quite likely that in the end the arithmetic will be different from now.

[ag]

I found one mistake in what I was doing: I was not adding 1 to the denominator in computing the highest averages.

Update: yep, it was me goofing up with that +1

And, yes, JL did cost Meretz a seat: they would have gotten an extra quota together and still there would be a large enough average to get them one seat more, so between the two they would have 19 seats (instead of one extra, 2 extras, the second going to Meretz, if I now get this right). So, GalOn is a victim of this.

Yes, it's easy to confound all of these +1 and so.
I'm still not sure whether JL did cost Meretz a seat:
JL+Meretz (436,532+154,648) / 19 = 31,111...
Shas+UTJ (230,735+205,551) / 14 = 31,163... (because that's the 120th seat as of now).

You're right though that JL+Meretz would have yielded a higher expected chance on an extra seat for Meretz because JL and Meretz are more similar in size than ZU and Meretz.

Btw there are still 200k uncounted ballots (military?) so it's quite likely that in the end the arithmetic will be different from now.

Yep, I ignored the other agreements.

[Antonio the Sixth]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.

THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist. Had ZU beaten Likud decisively they would have had a decent shot at roping in Kulanu and/or Shas/UTJ and form a government.

You mean Shas and UTJ were open to supporting a Left-wing government over a Centre-Right one when both were a possibility? I wouldn't have thought.

They only would have done it if Labor came in first place. They'll go along with the plurality winner because they just want to be in power regardless. They aren't going to act as kingmaker for a runner up though, that would be seen as showing too much favor to that party and hurt future relations with the other.

So a vote for them is essentially a wasted vote? At least in terms of deciding who will govern the country.

[MalaspinaGold]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.

THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist. Had ZU beaten Likud decisively they would have had a decent shot at roping in Kulanu and/or Shas/UTJ and form a government.

You mean Shas and UTJ were open to supporting a Left-wing government over a Centre-Right one when both were a possibility? I wouldn't have thought.

They only would have done it if Labor came in first place. They'll go along with the plurality winner because they just want to be in power regardless. They aren't going to act as kingmaker for a runner up though, that would be seen as showing too much favor to that party and hurt future relations with the other.

So a vote for them is essentially a wasted vote? At least in terms of deciding who will govern the country.

Thing is, the Ultra-Orthodox don't care much what happens in the rest of the country. So long as they got their money and their Rabbi positions and got out of the draft they could be in a Joint List coalition for all anyone cared (being half serious here).

[Хahar 🤔]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.

THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist. Had ZU beaten Likud decisively they would have had a decent shot at roping in Kulanu and/or Shas/UTJ and form a government.

You mean Shas and UTJ were open to supporting a Left-wing government over a Centre-Right one when both were a possibility? I wouldn't have thought.

They only would have done it if Labor came in first place. They'll go along with the plurality winner because they just want to be in power regardless. They aren't going to act as kingmaker for a runner up though, that would be seen as showing too much favor to that party and hurt future relations with the other.

So a vote for them is essentially a wasted vote? At least in terms of deciding who will govern the country.

Just think of very religious Jews as a minority group (which they are) like minorities in other list-based electoral democracies and it makes more sense. It's a similar situation to SSW in Schleswig-Holstein for Danes or SFP in Finland for Swedes or DPS in Bulgaria for Turks.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ugh. Well, thanks for reminding me why I hate sectional politics...

[politicus]

Ugh. Well, thanks for reminding me why I hate sectional politics...

Still, such parties are often affiliated with one of the sides.

SFP is a bourgois party and SSV is allied with SPD/Greens. The Israeli Orthodox are rather extreme in this regard.

[The Mikado]

You can also view them as the flip side of the coin from Yesh Atid, a secular-interest party ready to go along with either side (though less so now that Lapid detests Netanyahu). In the coalition-forming Labor or Likud can get either YA or Shas/UTJ and its pick colors policy on things like the draft question (should Haredi yeshiva students be drafted?). The comparison with things like Swedish-interest parties in Finland and Hungarian-interest parties in Romania is spot-on. Voting for them is brilliant if you're agnostic on whether the left or right rules but want the new government to respect your issue.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist.

It's more that while they exist on an electoral (and demographic) level, they are not political coalitions in embryo and there are rather more than the two that the media sometimes talk about.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Voting for them is brilliant if you're agnostic on whether the left or right rules but want the new government to respect your issue.

Why in their heyday Shas were even able to extend way beyond their obvious base by playing the ethnicity card with much vigour and decisiveness.

[t_host1]

At least Jewish Home lost seats?

Struggling to find something positive to take away from these ghastly results.

 well ...speculation is that Obama will be summoned to Tehran so to answer for his failure and an accounting of their permissions. If a beheading is handed down, it wasn’t clear if Barack Hussein Obama will be given a week to think about it.

Yu'all are very intense on finding a mathematical political reasoning to this current election, the one I used is the difference in bloodshed.

 I mean, calculate this; will/has there been more or less bloodshed of the many Israeli creeds during a Netanyahu-Likud reign, surviving the failure of the Obama opposition, than, there was with the successful Clinton/Carville election of Ehud Barak which was proceeded with 2 years of chaos and death?

[Türkisblau]

At least Jewish Home lost seats?

Struggling to find something positive to take away from these ghastly results.

 well ...speculation is that Obama will be summoned to Tehran so to answer for his failure and an accounting of their permissions. If a beheading is handed down, it wasn’t clear if Barack Hussein Obama will be given a week to think about it.

Yu'all are very intense on finding a mathematical political reasoning to this current election, the one I used is the difference in bloodshed.

 I mean, calculate this; will/has there been more or less bloodshed of the many Israeli creeds during a Netanyahu-Likud reign, surviving the failure of the Obama opposition, than, there was with the successful Clinton/Carville election of Ehud Barak which was proceeded with 2 years of chaos and death?

thost never gets old

[danny]

They have started adding the external envelope vote, Jewish Home seem to be the most over represented amongst these votes, getting almost double. As expected, the Joint List and Haredi are under represented.

[The Mikado]

Jewish Home seem to be the most over represented amongst these votes, getting almost double.

Voters who voted before the last-minute swing to Likud?

[danny]

Jewish Home seem to be the most over represented amongst these votes, getting almost double.

Voters who voted before the last-minute swing to Likud?

Almost all those votes happened during election day, and Likud is higher in these votes than in general anyway.

[danny]

It appears that the joint list lost a seat and will get 13, Meretz is up to 5. Likud will indeed finish with 30 and UTJ will make do with 6.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Hmm...Likud getting to the 30th seat?  Herzog's chances sink by the day.  ZU+JL+YA+Meretz total just 53 seats, and Bibi is 6 more mandates closer to the finish line.