Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

Finally, why would a Meretznik want a coalition with Shas and UTJ in the first place?

Now you're just straight up trolling. Meretz has sat with the ultra-Orthodox before. They would want to do it again because a leftist government would not be possible otherwise.

[/]

Is Netanyahu definitely going to stay PM no matter what?

[ag]

Finally, why would a Meretznik want a coalition with Shas and UTJ in the first place?

Now you're just straight up trolling. Meretz has sat with the ultra-Orthodox before. They would want to do it again because a leftist government would not be possible otherwise.

May or may not be. But there would be quite a few Meretz voters who would rather look elsewhere if that is the case.

[ag]

Anyway there won't be a second election, Labour's old guard will just make Herzog crawl at one point into a unity government and that is why I will never vote Labour.

That may very well be the case. But for it to get there, a government has to be formed today.

[The Mikado]

Question: when you say "Today," do you mean "within the next 83 minutes" or is it midnight of the following day?

[ag]

Question: when you say "Today," do you mean "within the next 83 minutes" or is it midnight of the following day?

Next 38 min.

[ag]

The coalition is announced.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Shall we wager how long it is before that one MK decides that they want another election?

[Vosem]

Shall we wager how long it is before that one MK decides that they want another election?

The Tkuma group in the Jewish Home (2 MKs) said they would leave if Uri Ariel did not become Justice Minister. It looks like that position will go to Ayelet Shaked instead, so it may be very soon.

Of course, the flip-side of the coin, any 1 MK from any party who feels like having a cut of power can also join. There may be individual members of Yisrael Beiteinu, Yesh Atid, or even Labour who can be swayed.

[ag]

So, Bennett gets Education, Shaked gets Justice (sans religious judge appointing committee), Ariel gets Agriculture and Settlements. They will also have a deputy in Defense and the Knessett Constitution, Law and Justice committee chairmanship. Both Bennett and Shaked get to be in the "narrow" security cabinet.

Pretty snug.

An assault on the courts will be a priority here, it seems.

[Vosem]

Very interested to see who "we're keeping the Foreign Ministry within the Likud" means. Silvan Shalom has held the post before, but that was under the Sharon government, which is no longer remembered fondly, and he seems past his prime in any case. Ze'ev Elkin and Tzachi Hanegbi have both been Deputy FM under Netanyahu; or, if he's going to promote one of the lesser ministers, Gilad Erdan, Yuval Steinitz, and Yisrael Katz are all possibilities. Whoever gets the position will become one of the frontrunners to replace Netanyahu whenever it is that Bibi chooses to leave.

[The Mikado]

This is going to be quite the government for the next six months. Do Kahlon and Kulanu get wiped out next election for supporting the most right wing government in Israeli history and getting little out of it? Stay tuned.

[Famous Mortimer]

This is going to be quite the government for the next six months. Do Kahlon and Kulanu get wiped out next election for supporting the most right wing government in Israeli history and getting little out of it? Stay tuned.

Is Kahlon not getting Finance? Why do you assume he will get nothing?

[The Mikado]

This is going to be quite the government for the next six months. Do Kahlon and Kulanu get wiped out next election for supporting the most right wing government in Israeli history and getting little out of it? Stay tuned.

Is Kahlon not getting Finance? Why do you assume he will get nothing?

He's getting a cabinet ministry, yeah. I meant getting none of his agenda through (because, seriously, no legislation of any type's coming through the 61/120 government).

[MalaspinaGold]

What would happen if there was an early election? Beytenu would be out of the Knesset. Probably Meretz too. Would Jewish Home be punished further for not cooperating? Could we see a return to the 80s where Labor and Likud are getting like 80% of the vote together?

Why would Meretz do any worse than last time? If anything, their voters seemed quite happy they made it.

They'll be a small boost for Meretz as Labour won't have to let's win effect to sway voters second time around.
Anyway there won't be a second election, Labour's old guard will just make Herzog crawl at one point into a unity government and that is why I will never vote Labour.

Now Liberman is going to do what he does best, populist racism to regain right wing voters

How old is the old guard? They must be quite geriatric at this point...

[MalaspinaGold]

Very interested to see who "we're keeping the Foreign Ministry within the Likud" means. Silvan Shalom has held the post before, but that was under the Sharon government, which is no longer remembered fondly, and he seems past his prime in any case. Ze'ev Elkin and Tzachi Hanegbi have both been Deputy FM under Netanyahu; or, if he's going to promote one of the lesser ministers, Gilad Erdan, Yuval Steinitz, and Yisrael Katz are all possibilities. Whoever gets the position will become one of the frontrunners to replace Netanyahu whenever it is that Bibi chooses to leave.

My Israeli friend thinks that Netanyahu may assume the foreign minister portfolio himself. It's been done before apparently.

[Famous Mortimer]

This is going to be quite the government for the next six months. Do Kahlon and Kulanu get wiped out next election for supporting the most right wing government in Israeli history and getting little out of it? Stay tuned.

Is Kahlon not getting Finance? Why do you assume he will get nothing?

He's getting a cabinet ministry, yeah. I meant getting none of his agenda through (because, seriously, no legislation of any type's coming through the 61/120 government).

Kahlon never had any agenda.

[Famous Mortimer]

Very interested to see who "we're keeping the Foreign Ministry within the Likud" means. Silvan Shalom has held the post before, but that was under the Sharon government, which is no longer remembered fondly, and he seems past his prime in any case. Ze'ev Elkin and Tzachi Hanegbi have both been Deputy FM under Netanyahu; or, if he's going to promote one of the lesser ministers, Gilad Erdan, Yuval Steinitz, and Yisrael Katz are all possibilities. Whoever gets the position will become one of the frontrunners to replace Netanyahu whenever it is that Bibi chooses to leave.

My Israeli friend thinks that Netanyahu may assume the foreign minister portfolio himself. It's been done before apparently.

If Herzog goes into a grand coalition, it will be because he wants to. Who else in the caucus favors a grand coalition? Just Erel Margalit and Nachman Shai. Not big guns. Ben-Eliezer might have pulled some influence but he's retired now.

I suppose the Histadrut could pressure him into a government. Would they do that? I guess it's hypothetically possible but I don't see it.

[ag]

Very interested to see who "we're keeping the Foreign Ministry within the Likud" means. Silvan Shalom has held the post before, but that was under the Sharon government, which is no longer remembered fondly, and he seems past his prime in any case. Ze'ev Elkin and Tzachi Hanegbi have both been Deputy FM under Netanyahu; or, if he's going to promote one of the lesser ministers, Gilad Erdan, Yuval Steinitz, and Yisrael Katz are all possibilities. Whoever gets the position will become one of the frontrunners to replace Netanyahu whenever it is that Bibi chooses to leave.

Netanyahu is keeping it for itself, I believe. Hoping to give it to Herzog, eventually.

[ag]

This is going to be quite the government for the next six months. Do Kahlon and Kulanu get wiped out next election for supporting the most right wing government in Israeli history and getting little out of it? Stay tuned.

Is Kahlon not getting Finance? Why do you assume he will get nothing?

Finance ministry in such a cabinet is poisonous.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why? He's supporters are working class Sephardic Jews. They won't care if he gives a lot of money to the ultra-Orthodox.

[ag]

Why? He's supporters are working class Sephardic Jews. They won't care if he gives a lot of money to the ultra-Orthodox.

Because he is either the most hted person in the country, blamed by everybody for not giving them money - or he is presiding over serious trouble. Most likely, both, actually. It is not the problem that he gives the money to Shasniks - the problem is, what he has to placate the rest. The budget is not bottomless, you know.

[MalaspinaGold]

Why? He's supporters are working class Sephardic Jews. They won't care if he gives a lot of money to the ultra-Orthodox.

Because he is either the most hted person in the country, blamed by everybody for not giving them money - or he is presiding over serious trouble. Most likely, both, actually. It is not the problem that he gives the money to Shasniks - the problem is, what he has to placate the rest. The budget is not bottomless, you know.

Lapid still kept more than half his support for whatever reason...

[ag]

Why? He's supporters are working class Sephardic Jews. They won't care if he gives a lot of money to the ultra-Orthodox.

Because he is either the most hted person in the country, blamed by everybody for not giving them money - or he is presiding over serious trouble. Most likely, both, actually. It is not the problem that he gives the money to Shasniks - the problem is, what he has to placate the rest. The budget is not bottomless, you know.

Lapid still kept more than half his support for whatever reason...

His position was a lot better. He did not have a one-seat margin, so he could say "no", if necessary.

[ag]

Labor announces it will not "pair off" with the government to absent during votes (the common practice under which if a government MK is not able to make it to the vote, he agrees with an opposition MK to do the same, not to exploit the absence).  Lapid is saying he is going to sue in order to prevent the government changin the law limiting the cabinet to 18 ministers. And Likud's wn Ayoub Kara says that unless a Druze (that is himself) is appointed a minister, he will break with the coalition.

Fun