Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Famous Mortimer]

Bibi is sure to win. He wouldn't be calling an election otherwise.

The only real question is whether Bibi's preferred coalition (Likud, Jewish Home, Shas, UTJ) will win a strong majority, if he will be at the mercy of Kahlon and Liberman, or if he will have to assemble an even more unwieldy government.

Labour and Yesh Atid will compete to be the strongest force on, for lack of a better term, the left but neither has a shot at winning.

I don't think Yesh Atid is a spent force although it deserves to be.

[Famous Mortimer]

United Arab List also includes the Arab Democratic Party of Taleb el-Sana, which actually broke away from Labor, it's specifically a Bedouin party and that's part of why they get so many Bedouin votes. Although the ADP, originally the main party in UAL, has lost a lot of clout in recent years, obviously from el-Sana getting bumped down on the party list and losing his seat in the Knesset.

[Famous Mortimer]

and Kahlon's party is probably a ploy to trick working class people into voting for a Likud led coalition. Netanyahu tried to do a similar thing before with a party called Social Justice, which never got off the ground.

[Famous Mortimer]

There was some talk of ADP running on their own last time but they ended up rejoining less than 48 hours before the registration deadline. I don't think there's any chance this time though because of the raising of the threshold.

As for Balad, I think they will just boycott the election. They're so radical at this point, even if they could continue to evade a ban, it just doesn't make sense for them to participate in elections run by a state they so openly despise. If they do team up with UAL, I suspect it will be an unofficial endorsement or maybe no endorsement and radical Arab voters going to UAL just because it's the next logical choice for them.

Hadn't heard that about Ta'al but it makes sense. Ahmad Tibi, the founder of Ta'al, got his start as Yasser Arafat's adviser on Israeli Arab affairs. Hadah-Ta'al would basically be a pro-Palestinian Authority/State of Palestine bloc and UAL(-Balad) would be a pro-Hamas bloc.

[Famous Mortimer]

and Kahlon's party is probably a plow to trick working class people into voting for a Likud led coalition. Netanyahu tried to do a similar thing before with a party called Social Justice, which never got off the ground.

Kachlon isn't a plot and it would be a really stupid plan if he were, since right wing parties already get a big majority of working class voters. Social Justice had nothing to do with Bibi, it was just a personal creation of Arkadi Gaydmak with no ideology, other than being a tool of his, but was abandoned when Gaydmak failed badly in the Jerusalem local election.

Basically every English language article about Social Justice openly acknowledged it was a trick to get left-wing voters to vote for Netanyahu, although in slightly nice words.

As for Kahlon, there's clearly some personal interest there, he wants to increase his standing. I think he's basically still pro-Likud and not totally hostile to Netanyahu though, his endorsement of Netanyahu before the last election proved that, he could have just sat that election out totally.

[Famous Mortimer]

I think calling Balad pro-Hamas is perfectly fair. They're certainly pro-Hezbollah and pro-Assad so I don't know why you consider that such a jump. Regardless, they're at the very least pro-suicide bombing (as Barhgouti is). Also, UAL have spoken of a caliphate before. Whether they're disconnected from reality enough to think it's realistic is another question, although even if they weren't, it wouldn't make me feel much better.

[Famous Mortimer]

Sweet Yahew. I hate the Haaretz paywall.

[Famous Mortimer]

A break between the Jewish Home and the former National Union is always a possibility.

Weird though because Bennett is a very National Union-y Jewish Home member (hawk who happens to be religious rather than a theocrat who happens to be a hawk).

What is Ariel's specific beef?

I suppose rather than go it totally alone Ariel might join the Kachist Strength to Israel.

[Famous Mortimer]

The first two leaders of the National Union were Benny Begin and Avigdor Lieberman. So not exactly theocrats.

The only religious party in the National Union for a long time was Tekuma, which broke away from the NRP (old name of The Jewish Home) because it wasn't hawkish enough. They were usually the smallest party though.

I do believe Tekuma gained control of the entire party aparatus towards the end but that was basically after they had already agreed to merge back into The Jewish Home.

[Famous Mortimer]

Then again, Ariel is from Tekuma.

I'm reading about this now, it's really almost comical. The Jewish Home/historical NRP is going to basically become the old National Union and all the people were in formerly in the National Union are going to break away and form a new version of the NRP.

[Famous Mortimer]

Why won't Yeshai join Likud? That seems like the obvious thing to do.

Because Likud don't want him and he'd lose more votes than he'd gain maybe?

[Famous Mortimer]

Israeli push polling is ridiculous.

[Famous Mortimer]

What the hell, just for fun

I guess there are two options for a Labor government:

The most obvious one is Labor (Labor-Livni-Kadima) + Yesh Atid + Kahlon + Shas + UTJ

The one no one has dared mention yet: Labor (Labor-Livni-Kadima) + Yesh Atid + Kahlon + YB

The question is whether or not Liberman would consider joining the left. It's unlikely but he might be able to do it if he gets civil marriage as a result.

Another problem is that a left-government with Liberman would need to have a majority on its own, they couldn't depend on Hadash  like a coalition with the ultra-Orthodox could.

[Famous Mortimer]

Irrelevant at this late point, but if Labor, Hatnuah, and Kadima merged and kept all their members, the resulting party would be the largest faction in the Knesset.

[Famous Mortimer]

Livni came out and made a weird statement that Hatnuah and Labor will merge but also said she wants to head the list.

Her delusions of grandeur are bordering on mental illness.

[Famous Mortimer]

Like I said, I envision Liberman as a replacement for the Haredim, so getting them together wouldn't be necessary.

It might make cooperation with Meretz harder but would it really be that much harder than having Yesh Atid and Haredim together, which is an absolute necessity if you're going to have a Liberman-less left coalition?

I think Meretz would probably come around, they wouldn't be happy about it but they would come around.

Also, if Livni, Mofaz, Peretz, and Mitzna all get spots in the top 10, plus Herzog's automatic top spot as party leader, that means only half of the top 10 will be elected by Labor primary voters. I don't think that's going to a negative effect or anything, I just think it's funny.

[Famous Mortimer]

I have no real idea but my gut feeling says no. The name "Labor" is what makes them a major party. Without that, they're just another fly by night centrist party.

[Famous Mortimer]

Too bad Sharon couldn't have hung on for a few more months. It would have been amusing to see him become a Labor party member against his will.  Would show how far to the right Israeli politics has moved.

[Famous Mortimer]

Here's a piece on Zouheir Bahlul, the sportscaster hnv1 mentioned may join Meretz:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-arab-sportscaster-to-get-into-game-from-inside-knesset/

This guy almost sounds too right-wing for Meretz, which kind of makes sense because I can't imagine a background in sports presenting making someone a latte liberal. Still, I can't think of a party that would fit him better.

[Famous Mortimer]

I think he's referring to comatose Arik, rather than noncomatose Arik.

Yeah, exactly.

[Famous Mortimer]

Livni came out and made a weird statement that Hatnuah and Labor will merge but also said she wants to head the list.

Her delusions of grandeur are bordering on mental illness.

Where have you seen that?

http://www.timesofisrael.com/livni-confirms-hatnua-labor-merger-ahead-of-elections/

[Famous Mortimer]

Yisrael Hasson, the non-Mofaz member of Kadima, is resigning the Knesset to become head of the state Archeological Authority. He will be replaced by the number 4 on the Kadima list, Ronit Tirosh (who I think is pretty). Number 3 on the Kadima list, Yohanan Plesner, didn't want the seat because he's head of something called the Israeli Democracy Institute and because being an MK for like 3 months is stupid.

[Famous Mortimer]

I think it's a good question. I don't know why they wouldn't go through with a formal merger unless of course Kadima has a lot of debt, which is entirely possible.

As for a second seat, Herzog already told Mofaz he couldn't have it and Mofaz conceded. As for competing in the primaries like a normal Labor member, I don't think Tirosh would have much of a chance. As I pointed out, with 4 people getting appointed in the top 10, there's a limited number of realistic spots for incumbent Labor MKs, competition will be stiff.

Yohanan Plesner is much better known, he headed the commission on drafting the ultra-Orthodox. He would have had a slightly better chance but even he opted out.

[Famous Mortimer]

Gotta be disappointing for him what constitutes greener pastures though. Hasson was the number 2 candidate on the Yisrael Beytenu list in 2006. He was set to be a big deal but never really took off.

[Famous Mortimer]

I wonder who's threatening to break away.