Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[MalaspinaGold]

Yair Lapid rejected Bibi's demands; the election date to be announced in a couple days.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/1.629512?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

Reasons include the VAT, defense budget, and the nation-state bill

[MalaspinaGold]

Lapid and Livni are both damaged goods. Hnv1 thinks a comeback by labor is in the cards, but I'm skeptical. The polls currently only show Bennett able to actually beat Bibi in the tallies; but he wouldn't be able to set up a coalition. Most likely we'll see another Bibi led government IMO.

[MalaspinaGold]

An interesting question: will partisan infighting within Shas cause UTJ to become the larger of the two Haredi parties for the first time since... ever?

[MalaspinaGold]

Not yet, they're supposed to do it soon though.

[MalaspinaGold]

It's pretty much official now... Livni and Lapid were dismissed as ministers today, and Bibi openly announced new elections. The vote to dissolve will be a formality.

[MalaspinaGold]

This is by no means exhaustive, and I ask the native Israelis to correct anything I may have gotten wrong.

The parties:
Likud: traditional right wing party, both on economic and diplomatic issues. Tends to be expedient on religious issues, but Bibi is more comfortable relying on the Ultra-orthdox

Yesh Atid: The big party that came out of the last election, headed by former news anchor Yair Lapid: it's basically moderate hero on everything, except they're pitted against the Ultra-Orthodox. They're like the Israeli version of the Lib Dems.

Labor: The old left party, has been steadily losing support since Rabin; they tend to be economically center-left and diplomatically centrist, though current leader Herzog is an exception to that rule, he tends to be more third way in terms of economics.

Yisrael Beitenu: Headed by Avigdor Lieberman, this was traditionally a party of the Russian immigrants, but Lieberman has been trying to appeal to right-wingers dissatisfied with Bibi. Economically right wing yet at the same time secularist. Superficially similar to Bennett and Jewish Home, but the racism tends to come almost exclusively from nationalism, rather than the mixture of nationalism and religious messianism characterizing Jewish Home.

Jewish Home: The party of the settlers and the Religious Zionists. Openly annexationist. Probably the only party in the coalition that will come out a winner in the polls.

Shas: The Haredi/Ultra-Orthodox party for the Sephardim and Mizrachim. Not right-wing economically but has drifted to the right on diplomacy/peace/the Arab population, with the rise of Eli Yishai. Used to be very powerful but has been on the decline since Ovadia Yosef died, and many non Haredi sephardim that typically vote for Shas have been peeling away to join other parties on the center and right.

United Torah Judaism: The Ashkenazi Haredi party, formed by the union of Lithuanian Degel haTorah and Hasidic Agudat Yisrael. From what I know tends to be more left-wing on most issues compared to Shas, except for religious issues where it is more right wing.

Meretz: The traditional Zionist left, staunchly pro-peace, economically left wing, secular, and anti-Bibi. Tends to be white, Ashkenazi and well-off.

Hatnuah: Livni's latest vehicle, supposed to be the centrist peace party. Livni may or may not decide to go into retirement this year, as her party may well get slaughtered.

Moshe Kachlon's party: Kachlon was a former Sephardi Likud member and at one time Minister of Communications, during which time he got everyone's love for lowering the cell phone bill. Now he wants to run as an economically "left-wing" candidate (even though he's not actually left-wing on anything). Think of him as a poor man's Lapid; I'm fairly sure he's going to siphon a lot of Shas's nonharedi voters (and even some Haredi ones).

Hadash: The Israeli commies; most of their support comes from well-educated and middle-class Arabs in Jewish and larger Arab towns. (Umm al Fahm, Haifa, etc.)

UAL-Taal: This is a joint list of the Islamist UAL and Ahmed Tibi's secular Taal party. This party gets the overwhelming support of the Bedouin, as well as Arabs in the smaller towns).

Balad: The Arab-Nationalist party. Recently it has been the weakest of the three parties, as well as the most controversial one, as a result of MK Haneen Zoabi. There is a high possibility that they merge with UAL-Taal as a result of the raising of the electoral bar.

In my opinion the only way to describe the Israeli political spectrum is to use three dimensions: diplomacy/peace, economics, and religious issues. And even then the lines frequently blur, for example: just recently Livni and the Shas reached a deal to appoint a mix of reformist and traditional Haredi Rabbis in order to sink Religious Zionist Bennett's preferences. Lieberman is shrewd enough to have cultivated relationships with many center parties. And Meretz and UTJ collaborated on an alternative budget.

[MalaspinaGold]

Considering that el-Sana was replaced with another Bedouin (Taleb abu-Arar), do you think this will change who the Bedouin vote for?

Also,  how do people think the Arab parties will regroup? I've heard the possibility that Balad and UAL will unite, and Taal will break off to join Hadash and thus even it out.

In other news, the date of dissolution is tomorrow. Elections are supposed to be in mid to late March. Jewish Home has scheduled their primaries for January 5th, and I've heard there's some friction between Bennett and the Tekuma faction of the party (possible breakup?)

Also, who is most likely to vote for a Kachlon party? If it's Likudniks, that hurts Bibi, and if it's disaffected Shas voters it doesn't help much either, as Shas will most likely be in Bibi's coalition next time around. Best case scenario for him would be disaffected Lapid voters move to Kachlon in large numbers, but will Kachlon necessarily appeal to middle-class, secular Lapid-types? Also, is there any truth that Ariel Attias and Adina Bar-Shalom may link up with him?

[MalaspinaGold]

So Bibi is Israel's Andrew Cuomo

Here's the article about the possible merger: http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.629637

I wouldn't describe UAL/Balad as "pro-Hamas". Even Balad, who has the more extreme rhetoric, is closer to someone like Marwan Barghouti than Hamas.  And the UAL knows they're not getting a caliphate.

[MalaspinaGold]

What haaretz paywall?
http://uncommonprogrammer.blogspot.com/2013/05/haaretz-cracked-goodbye-paywall-its-now.html

Considering that Hamas opposes Assad, I'd say Balad supporting Assad makes them less Hamas-friendly.

Also, UAL supports a two-state solution, which is very un-Hamaslike.

This was an interesting article not that long ago interviewing the Balad MKs:

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2014/11/balad-haneen-zoabi-basel-ghattas-jamal-zahalka-balad.html

[MalaspinaGold]

Here are some new numbers out:
Channel 2/Midgam
22 Likud
17 Bayit Yehudi
13 Labor
11 Hadash, Ra’am-Ta’al & Balad
10 Yisrael Beitenu
10 New Kachlon Party
9 Yesh Atid
9 Shas
8 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
7 Meretz
4 Hatnua

Teleseker/Walla:
23 Likud
17 Bayit Yehudi
12 Labor
12 Yisrael Beitenu
11 Yesh Atid
10 New Kachlon Party
8 Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
7 Shas
5 Meretz
5 Hatnuah
5 Ra’am-Ta’al
3 Hadash

Can anyone explain the collapse in support for Meretz for me please?

[MalaspinaGold]

Al, based on the polls Bennett has held a consistent second place. third place is where all hell breaks loose.

Speaking of which, I've read rumors that there is bad blood between Bennett and Housing Minister Ariel. Is there any possibility of a breakup of Jewish Home?

Also, now that Livni is dead weight, will she try and join Labor, or will she call it quits? From what I understand Lapid doesn't want her while Herzog is interested.

Are there any retirement prospects on the horizon? If Bennett is craving the defense ministry as much as they say he is, does that mean Yaalon is ready to call it quits?

[MalaspinaGold]

From what I understand, it's underlying resentment + Bennett isn't being sufficiently loony:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-home-mks-threaten-split-to-right-wing-camp/

Also I've always thought National Union was more theocrat-y than anything else.

Edit: Also, is there any indication who Kachlon will primarily target?

[MalaspinaGold]

Dang it, I confused the NRP and the NU; they were a bit before my time.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/popular-ex-likud-minister-launches-new-party/
Times of Israel profile on Kahlon. Rumors that he'll run with Yoav Galant and possibly Diskin(?). I must say, if Diskin does this, he really is politically inept. It also doesn't say much about Kachlon- if he's running an economic party, why the hell is he stuffing it with defense guys?

Trajtenberg is also mentioned, which makes no sense. No mention of Saar though.

[MalaspinaGold]

More polls:
Maagar Mochot:
26 Likud
16 Bayit Yehudi
13 Labor
12 Yisrael Beitenu
8 Yesh Atid
8 Shas
8 UTJ
8 Kachlon
7 Meretz
4 Ra’am-Ta’al
4 Hadash
3 Movement
3 Balad

Do you plan on going out to vote?
31% For sure, 24% Most likely, 35% average or low chance

From a scale of 1-10 what is your faith in the Israeli political system?
4.7 average

And from Sarid (only partial):
Likud: 17
Bayit Yehudi: 17
Labor: 17
Yesh Atid: 11

Who is at fault for the collapse of the coalition?
53% Netanyahu, 28% Lapid, 13% Labor & Opposition, 2% Livni, 2% Bennett, 1% Liberman

Who will be the next Prime Minister?
48% Netanyahu, 10% Herzog, 6% Bennett, 5% Liberman, 3% Lapid, 2% Kachlon, 2% Livni, 21% Don’t know

Also, looks like Shas might be on the verge of breaking up. If Yishai does leave, who stays with Deri? I'm thinking Vaknin; anyone else?
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Yishai-is-considering-options-regarding-his-political-future-383597

[MalaspinaGold]

Kachlon says he is willing to trade land for peace, faults Netanyahu for being unwilling to do so:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/rising-star-kahlon-says-he-would-give-land-for-peace/

Mofaz to join with Labor, will most likely receive a spot in the top 5.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/mofaz-to-join-labor-party-reports-say/

Report is that Livni is more likely to join labor also. If so, she gets the number 2 spot, and Mitzna and Peretz will be in the top 10.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/labor-hatnua-parties-consider-alliance/

Here's a piece on Zouheir Bahlul, the sportscaster hnv1 mentioned may join Meretz:
http://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-arab-sportscaster-to-get-into-game-from-inside-knesset/

[MalaspinaGold]

Letting Lieberman in would mean leaving Meretz out. If Meretz gets 8 or higher seats, and Lieberman gets 11 or lower, that becomes impractical.  In addition, it would make it harder to let the Haredim in. Shas says its top two goals for the next government will be hiking the minimum wage and lowering the VAT on goods. That won't sit in well with Lieberman.

If Yishai makes his own party and proceeds to crash and burn, then that gives Deri a much stronger reason to stick with the left.

So I think the most likely left coalition is Labor/Livni-Lapid-Kachlon-Meretz-Haredim

The new labor bloc (not sure if they'll keep calling it labor) will have Livni as number 2, Mofaz in the top 5, and Peretz and Mitzna in the top 10. And yes, Tzipi is delusional.

Also, it seems that Diskin has been hanging around at labor functions recently; so him getting on the list is also a possibility. Also, Saar is supposed to be considering a primary challenge to Bibi right now, and Bibi wants to move up the primary date to quash it.

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Politics-And-Diplomacy/Post-poll-may-entice-Saar-to-run-383847

[MalaspinaGold]

The ideological gap between Lapid and the Haredim imo is smaller than between Meretz and Lieberman. If I remember correctly Lapid said he's ready to sit with the Haredim to get rid of Netanyahu and could switch his support for the house VAT to the goods VAT to appease them. Also, Meretz got a lot of backlash in 2006 for even considering to sit with Lieberman, even though they didn't actually go through with it. Also, there is the possibility that Yesh Atid goes the way of Kadima, in which case any potential conflict is rendered moot.

Re: your latter point, yeah I noticed that. Is there a possibility they change their name to reflect some kind of unity, like the Alignment coalition 40 years ago?

[MalaspinaGold]

I think he's referring to comatose Arik, rather than noncomatose Arik.

[MalaspinaGold]

Besides Bayit Yehudi, when will the rest of the parties be submitting their lists/picking their chairs?

[MalaspinaGold]

Lapid-Hatnua will indeed get a new name.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Labor-led-bloc-with-Livni-Peretz-to-get-new-name-384068
And it seems Labor backbenchers are none too happy about the deal; some want to break off from Herzog. completely.

LOLabor

EDIT: And Deri claims Shas is united once again, but Yishai remains mum.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Yishai-staying-in-Shas-Deri-says-384070

[MalaspinaGold]

You know, they never miss an opportunity, etc.

EDIT: Kachlon's party will be called Kulanu (All of us)

http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-likud-minister-kahlon-to-call-his-new-party-kulanu/

[MalaspinaGold]

There's a Muslim running in the Jewish Home primaries who's attracted some attention named Anett Haskia: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/188477#.VIjK2mTF9As

Wat is this I don't even...

[MalaspinaGold]

This article makes a decent case for the rotation... considering the stability of recent Israeli coalitions, it's not like Herzog is giving up much by giving Livni the final two years of his term.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/with-the-herzog-livni-merger-an-opposition-materializes/

Also the drama he's getting right now is pretty major... even with his post nomination bump he was never beating Bibi. He has to hope that this is his floor rather than his ceiling.

hnv1, what is your opinion of Herzog as compared to past labor leaders; my impression is that he's pretty much average, a meh candidate in most respects.

And alas, more Jews are starting to support FN.

Also, what can we expect politically in the coming weeks? Any new campaign announcements etc?

[MalaspinaGold]

In the parallel universe of Atlasia, Mr. Netanyahu decided to make a peace agreement with Palestine and this ended up splitting Likud (with Feiglin joining forces with Bennet), in the end Bibi was talking about making a peace deal and calling for "homebuilding". The whole situation resulted in a special election called in November of 2013, with the following results:

Jewish Home (Bennet-Feiglin): 23 [+4]
Labor (Yachimovich): 18 [+3]
Yesh Atid (Lapid): 15 [-4]
Meretz (Gal-On): 12 [+6]
Likud (Netanyahu): 10 [-3]
Shas (Deri): 9 [-2]
Yisrael Beiteinu (Lieberman): 9 [-2]
United Torah Judaism (Litzman & Gafni): 5 [-2]
Hatnuah (Livni): 5 [-1]
United Arab List (Sarsur): 4 [±0]
Hadash (Barakeh): 4 [±0]
Balad (Zahalka): 3 [±0]
Otzma LeYisrael (Eldad): 3 [+3]
Kadima (Mofaz): 0 [-2]

Peres decided to call for Mr.Yacimovich to make a Government and she ended up having a minority government (Netanyahu refused to make a Government with both Bennet and Yacimovich). In December, facing pressure both from her party and other political parties, Yacimovich is taken out from her leadership and Isaac Herzog takes the lead. He ends up calling for a unity government and is finally able to form a majority government.

Now things start to get interesting: In order to ensure that Bennet is not able to be Prime Minister, Herzog fusions the Labor Party with Livni's Hatnuah, forming the Labor-Hatnuah or The Labor Movement. Then his coalition is based on the efforts of making a peace deal possible; he calls Meretz, Shas and Likud to form his party and he is finally able to start makes thing happen. Here it is his coalition and Cabinet.

"The Peace Coalition"

The Labor Movement– 23
Yesh Atid – 15
Meretz – 12
Likud – 10
Shas - 9

Total – 69 Members of the Knesset


The current government:

Prime Minister:  Isaac Herzog (The Labor Movement - 23)
Foreign Minister: Tzipi Livni (The Labor Movement- 23)
Minister of Finance: Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid - 14)
Defense Minister: Benjamin Netanyahu (Likud - 10)
Public Security Minister: Amir Peretz (The Labor Movement – 23)
Justice Minister: Zahava Gal-On (Meretz - 12)
Minister of Industry, Trade and Labor: Arieh Deri (Shas – 9)[/center]


Now, you may be wondering why I have brought this Atlasian Utopia to you. It is specially because now I think that with Moshe Khachlon could serve as the "peaceful" Netanyahu and Likud that we had in Atlasia. I strongly believe that if Herzog and Livni can keep it up with their momentum, they are going to be able to form a government.

And this would be its probable face:
Labor-Hatnuah-Kadima + Yesh Atid + Kachlon's Kulanu + Meretz + Shas

It is going to be a rather centrist coalition with a small left tilt in Foreign Policy and I do think that this might be feasible, although not extremely likely.

In the above scenario it is much more likely that rather than accept Bibi Yachimovich takes in UTJ (Shas is already in the coalition anyway, and UTJ is more lefty than Shas on many issues)

EDIT: So new updates out of Shas and Jewish Home, where everybody hates everybody.

Basically, Deri offered Yishai second spot and a ministerial position if Shas were in the government. However, he apparently also wants Yishai to fill out a pre-pepared resignation letter that Deri can keep until Yishai starts acting... insubordinate. Yishai basically gave Deri the middle finger, and cancelled a join press conference of reconciliation. Likelihood is that he leaves as early as next week.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Discontent-grows-within-Shas-over-battle-to-lead-the-party-384288

In the meantime Bennett wants to limit the number of seats allotted to Tekuma from 4 to 2 or 3. From what I can understand, Ariel also wants to split, but he would have a harder time doing so than Yishai, as his faction is relatively small. If he does break though, chances are he would link up with Yishai.
http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Bayit-Yehudi-and-Tekuma-still-at-loggerheads-over-joint-electoral-list-384411

[MalaspinaGold]

Add to the speculation a joint Shas-Jewish Home list (LOL)
http://www.timesofisrael.com/jewish-home-shas-consider-alliance-to-counter-rebellious-party-members/

My bet's that it's just noise but who knows... this IS Israeli politics after all.