Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[DavidB.]

Thanks for this, Vosem. Knessetjeremy is truly a lifesaver for addicts of Israeli politics abroad

I guess (= hope) that Yachad-Otzma will reach the threshold in this week's polls. I'd hate to see so many right-wing votes spilled, votes that are probably even crucial for the formation of a coalition.

Poster ads for Yachad are running on a lot of buses in Jerusalem, but it seems like some people (Shas/Deri supporters?) didn't like that so much - most of these ads are partly ripped off the buses.

[DavidB.]

Also, at the last minute, Kadima decided not to file their list.

Because their second MP, Akram Hasson, joined Kulanu.

[DavidB.]

Did he get a spot on the list? He didn't get a realistic one.

12, so indeed, not realistic. But Kadima would not have gotten in as well, so no big loss.

[DavidB.]

According to this:

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Bayit-Yehudi-primary-could-be-postponed-over-transparency-complaints-387643

Akram Hasoon endorsed a Druze candidate in the Jewish Home primary. Just a thing.

Very interesting. Ah well. Welcome to Israeli politics... And the Jewish Home guy didn't get a realistic spot anyway.

[DavidB.]

Panels/Knesset

Likud - 25
Labor/Livini - 24
Jewish Home - 13
United Arab Parties - 12
Yesh Atid - 11
Kulanu - 8
UTJ - 7
Shas - 6
Meretz - 5
Yisrael Beitenu - 5
Racists - 4

Calling Eli Yishai's party "racists" doesn't make sense at all. I suggest you just put "Yachad Ha'am Itanu-Otzma" there.

On topic: in both the Dialog and the Panel poll Yachad Ha'am Itanu-Otzma reached the threshold, and Likud outpolled the "Zionist" Union both times.

I expect a Likud surge after Bibi's speech for the Congress. Many Israelis will agree with what he'll say, even if they're not real Bibi fans.

[DavidB.]

Panels/Knesset

Likud - 25
Labor/Livini - 24
Jewish Home - 13
United Arab Parties - 12
Yesh Atid - 11
Kulanu - 8
UTJ - 7
Shas - 6
Meretz - 5
Yisrael Beitenu - 5
Racists - 4

Calling Eli Yishai's party "racists" doesn't make sense at all. I suggest you just put "Yachad Ha'am Itanu-Otzma" there.

Well, factually it's correct.

No, it's not. Islam is not a race.

Another poll by Panel today:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [18] Likud
22 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [10] Shas
06 [06] Meretz
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

69 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

[DavidB.]

Are you stupid?

Going beyond Yishai's comments about African immigrants (including his hilarious "white man" comment), I can tell you based on the experiences of a friend of mine that Marzel is literally more racist/fascist than Kahane.

Based on the experiences of a friend of yours. Oh wow. That must definitely be true! *yawn* Not impressed by your boohoo, sorry.

[DavidB.]

Panels/Knesset

Likud - 25
Labor/Livini - 24
Jewish Home - 13
United Arab Parties - 12
Yesh Atid - 11
Kulanu - 8
UTJ - 7
Shas - 6
Meretz - 5
Yisrael Beitenu - 5
Racists - 4

Calling Eli Yishai's party "racists" doesn't make sense at all. I suggest you just put "Yachad Ha'am Itanu-Otzma" there.

Well, factually it's correct.

No, it's not. Islam is not a race.

Another poll by Panel today:

Current Knesset seats in [brackets]
26 [18] Likud
22 [20] Zionist Union (Labor-Livni)
13 [11] Bayit Yehudi
12 [11] United Arab List
11 [20] Yesh Atid
08 [07] Yahadut Hatorah/UTJ
07 [02] Koolanu (Kahlon+Kadima)
06 [10] Shas
06 [06] Meretz
05 [13] Yisrael Beitenu
04 [02] Yachad (Yishai+Chetboun+Marzel)

69 [63] Right-Religious-Kahlon (Parties that have not ruled out a BB coalition)
51 [57] Center-Left-Arab (Parties that have ruled out a BB coalition)

Pause for reflection: Kach was banned for being racist
Not all Palestinians are Muslim
I'd mention the awful things marzel has said but I'd feel dirty writing them.

So now the invented "Palestinian" people has even become a "race"? Inventing definitions with lefties never became so original! And getting called a racist by people who would vote for Balad, like "Malaspinagold", would be an honor for me.

Now let's move back to a far more interesting topic: the Israeli elections.

[DavidB.]

So now the invented "Palestinian" people has even become a "race"?

In the same way that the equally invented "Jewish" people did. As a racist yourself, you would have first-hand experience in how this happens.

Lol! Still don't care about Israel haters and Jew bashers calling me a racist, only makes me smile, so thanks for that.

Let's try to keep this thread as calm and reasonable as possible. If this means not commenting on certain matters, then do not comment on those matters. Thanks.

And now I feel we should listen to this wise man, because it would be a shame if this thread would become only a place for fighting.

[DavidB.]

Since people can't seem to get over this nonsense:

Also, I'm fairly sure this DavidB nut is not from the tribe. It's more likely that he's actually Geert Wilders.

Hate to break it to ya, but I'm Jewish. Not your typical vegetarian-environmentalist, anti-capitalist, J-Street loving, Israel-"critical", left-wing Jew though.

A rule of the internet with few exceptions: if the defense against a charge of racism is merely that the targeted group is not a "race", then the charge of racism is correct.

It is sensible to use another term than racism if you describe hatred and/or prejudice against a non-racially defined group (like a religion or an ethnic group with broadly similar racial origin). Racism carries a powerful stigma so people are tempted to use it for all sorts of related phenomena and that is hardly constructive. You end up with Scottish racism against the English or Yoruba racism against Hausas and such ludicrous things if you go down that road.

The idea that all ethnic or etno-religious hatred or prejudice is "racist" makes the term meaningless. Applying it to things like Christians hating Muslims and vice versa even more so.

^ This was exactly my point. Calling everything "racism" is not only silly, it's also inaccurate.

[DavidB.]

Polls were pretty stable last time. It was the final results (Yesh Atid in second) that came out of nowhere.

Basically, between the party switching, which ends with the lists being finalized, and the coalition formation, this is going to be a pretty dull thread.

Polls are boring but coalition formation might become interesting. Eventually everything will probably depend on Yisrael Beiteinu and Kulanu (and, to a lesser extent, Shas). These parties could go with both Herzog and Bibi, although I think it's more likely that Bibi will manage to form a coalition, especially if Likud becomes the biggest party.

[DavidB.]

How likely is it that a "unity government" with Likud and Labor will be formed, Hnv1? Bibi would of course prefer a right-wing government. It depends on Lieberman and Kachlon. But wouldn't that be a nightmare scenario for Labor?

[DavidB.]

How likely is it that a "unity government" with Likud and Labor will be formed, Hnv1? Bibi would of course prefer a right-wing government. It depends on Lieberman and Kachlon. But wouldn't that be a nightmare scenario for Labor?

He would prefer a unity government. Bibi has shown that he doesn't want to be the most the extreme part of his coalition,  he'll definitely try to avoid an all right wing coalition.

Hmm. Interesting thought. It must've been really annoying for him that Uri Ariel used to plan new houses in J&S while he was negotiating with Abu Mazen. But overall, he's had more trouble in the last government - with Yesh Atid and with Livni - than in the government before, I thought.

For Bibi it wouldn't even be that bad, but a unity government might destroy Likud's popularity, although it will probably destroy Labor's popularity even more. That would almost certainly mean new elections within two years.

[DavidB.]

Coalition formation will be hard. According to Knessetjeremy, Lieberman and Deri have also ruled out a Herzog coalition, leading him to the conclusion that "the dream of a Herzog government without Likud is over."

However, now Bibi has outruled a coalition with Herzog, he will definitely need all right-wing parties. My guess is that Kulanu will eventually go with Bibi and Kachlon will get a really good place in the government. Marzel will of course not cooperate, but he'll split from Yachad anyway, making Yachad coalition material. So the next government's majority will probably consist of Likud, JH, YB, UTJ, Shas, Kulanu and Yachad. Will be interesting to see Deri and Yishai cooperating...

[DavidB.]

Lol, this election has been extremely funny but the crying leftist people over here might even be funnier. It's a shame that my party, the Jewish Home, has been losing some seats, but it's happened for the greater good and Bennett will get a good Ministry anyway - probably Defense. I hope Likud will get this extra seat - number 30.

[DavidB.]

So these polls don't take into account soldiers' votes yet? Does that mean that Likud will probably get another seat?

[DavidB.]

So these polls don't take into account soldiers' votes yet? Does that mean that Likud will probably get another seat?

Everybody is drafted, except for Arabs and (so far) the Haredi. So, it is not clear who is getting an extra seat (Likud would not be the prime candidate), but, yeah, JL is not likely to get its 14th (though UTJ is likely to loose its 7th).

I know, but that makes a 14th JL seat less likely - and a 7th UTJ seat as well, indeed.

[DavidB.]

Is it more likely that Kahlon will recommend Netanyahu or Herzog, because at this point it looks like he will be the Kingmaker

If Bibi gets 29-30 seats and Buji 24, Kahlon will definitely nominate Bibi.

[DavidB.]

So these polls don't take into account soldiers' votes yet? Does that mean that Likud will probably get another seat?

Everybody is drafted, except for Arabs and (so far) the Haredi. So, it is not clear who is getting an extra seat (Likud would not be the prime candidate), but, yeah, JL is not likely to get its 14th (though UTJ is likely to loose its 7th).

"Envelope vote" includes several different groups, including soldiers but also prisoners. Last year, the result was to shift a single Knesset seat from the United Arab List (Ra'am) to the Jewish Home. But they were both on the line. Considering there are very few Haredi soldiers or prisoners in Israel, but Arabs are overrepresented in the prison population, I don't think it's out of the question that the envelope vote has the opposite effect this year and shifts a seat from United Torah Judaism to the Joint List -- it's only a few hundred votes that need to be made up.

Interesting - I didn't think about the prisoners. You're right. Thanks for explaining.

[DavidB.]

Map of the results:

http://z.ynet.co.il/short/content/2015/elections_map2015/

My Hebrew isn't perfect, what colors represent which party?

Light blue = Likud
Red = ZU
Yellow = UTJ
Light grey = Yachad
Dark grey = Shas
Rose = YB
Dark blue = Bayit Yehudi
Light green = Arabs
Purple = Kulanu

[DavidB.]

If my calculation is right, if the threshold were 2%, Yachad would have had 4 seats, costing one each to ZU, YA, YB and UTJ. And if there were no threshold whatsoever, as in the golden days past, Ale Yarok would have taken a seat off Likud.

Would be the best. Ale Yarok and Yachad deserve representation. Israel might need more stability but it also deserves pluralism. And outlawing soft drugs is really stupid.