Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[ag]

It would be interesting to see the impact of the new threshold. Israeli politicians and voters do not have experience dealing with it. Will the small parties fade, once it becomes clear they are not making it, or are we going to see a few parties with around 2 or 3% of the vote each?

[ag]

A poll of Arab voters apparently shows most would prefer, if an all-Arab parties list were to be formed, it would be headed by MK Ahmad Tibi: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4602589,00.html .

The problem, of course, is that Hadash is not a fully Arab list, but, rather, a "non-Zionist" one. What would somebody like Dov Khenin do in a "United Arab Party"? And, though there may not be too many Jewish votes in that, but there are some, which could be lost that way. And, in any case, I do not think Hadash is in much danger of not making it at this point. Balad and UAL merging, though, would make a lot of sense at this point. If they do not, there is a big risk a chunk of Arab vote is lost. On the other hand, if they do merge, between them and Hadash there may be a larger than usual complement of Arab Party/non-Zionist MKs, which, in a close election, could make the government harder to form.

[ag]

Not important but interesting:

Former Knesset Speaker and briefly Labor Party leader Avraham Burg has kinda sorta endorsed Hadash.

http://www.i24news.tv/en/opinion/53920-141209-my-message-to-the-arabs-of-israel

Not really surprising. I remember a few years ago he was planning to launch his own Arab-Jewish unity party but it never got off the ground.

Good. He should be on their list. They should be able to elect two Jews.

[ag]

So the Labour Livni union will be called "The Zionist Camp" after all.
Also Kachlon seems to have made up his mind and now says that he supports same sex marriage.

Apparently, only in Hebrew, not in Arabic. Is that true?

[ag]

Haaretz gives 15 slots

1. Aiman Ouda (Hadash)
2. Masud Ganaim (Ra'am)
3. Jamal Zahalka (Balad)
4. Ahmad Tibi (Ta'al)
5. Aida Tomeh Saliman (Hadash)
6. Abdel Hakim Haj Yahia  (Ra'am)
7. Haneen Zoabi (Balad)
8. Dov Henin (Hadash)
9. Taleb Abu Arar  (Ra'am)
10. Dr. Yussuf Jabareen (Hadash)
11. Basel Ghattas (Balad)
12. Reserved for Ta'al
13. Dr. Abdullah Abu Maaruf (Hadash)
14. Joumaa Azbarka (Balad)
15. Saeed Al-Horomi  (Ra'am)

A joint list might improve the turnout. Would 12-14 seats be out of reach?

[ag]

So,  Hadash is pretty much guaranteed 4 and realistically may get 5. Balad should get 3, but might go up to 4 or down to 2.  Ra'am should get 3, with an outside chance for 4. And Ahmad Tibi is in - and, quite possibly, with a friend.

[ag]

So, who is 16/19?

[ag]

15 is al Horomi and Azberga is from Balad.

[ag]

It is important to see how much Khenin can retain the Jewish vote.

[ag]

Can't see Jews voting for the Islamic Movement. I'm guessing they leave to Meretz. Jewish Hadash voters account for like what...1/4th of a seat though?

Well, it depends. The parties are not merging. It is a marriage of convenience, forced by the electoral law changes. Hadash has a stronger representation on the list than Raam. And, of course, there is still Khenin - how he campaigns might make some difference.

[ag]

Is this Arab alliance unprecedented, or at least how much of an effect could it have on the upcoming election ? And could someone throw in 3 or 4 lines about each of the 4 components ? I get what Hadash is, but I cannot really make up my mind on Raam, Taal and Balad.

Yes, it is unprecedented. Hadash has, in the past, run with Balad and with Taal, but never with both together and never with Raam.  Taal has run with each of the other three. But this is, indeed, new. And this would not have happened if the PR threshold had not been raised to 3.25%. Normally, each of the main three gets around 2.5% - a bit more if Taal joins this particular party. It is very rare for any one of them to cross 4%. So, at best, without a merger all would have been at risk. At the very least, the number of "Arab" parties had to be "rationalized" to 2.

Hadash - mostly Communists, still, at least in part, bicommunal. For them this merger is tough, as it further defines them as an "Arab party" - and there is still some Jewish hard core left. Furthermore, they are ideologically extremely inconsistent with Raam.

Balad - secular, fairly, I believe, urban, reasonably wealthy (definitely non-Communist) Arab nationalist party.

Taal - followers of the most popular secular Arab MK (Ahmad Tibi)

Raam - like Hadash it is a coalition, but whereas Hadash is Communist-dominated, Raam is dominated by the Islamic movement (with a strong Bedoine component). So, this is the opposite end of the political spectrum, as far as Arabic Israel is concerned.

To sum up, the 3.25% threshold has forced all non-Zionist forces in Israel to join in one list. Whereas as before their voter had a choice within the political spectrum: from Communists to Islamists - now there will be no choice. In addition, Jewish non-Zionists are left without a proper political home: even though Dov Khenin is still on the list and will remain an MK, he will be an MK for an unambiguously Arab list.

On the other hand, the 3.25% rule will really consolidate things. Previously, a not very ideologically well-defined Arab Israeli would have doubts whom to vote for. In addition, he would have to contend with calls for boycott of Israeli politics - the call that would be the easier to adhere to the more confused he were. No confusion now.

Polls are saying that most Arabs really wanted a joint list, and many would only vote if they had one. So, the Arab turnout should grow. Furthermore, with one list there will be no Arab vote "lost". In contrast, there will be some vote splintering among the Jewish parties. The 3.25% threshold is new, and some factions, at least, will not cross it, though they might come close. That would increase the number of the Jewish votes "lost".

Between the two effects the united Arab slate will earn, at least, a couple of extra seats. Whereas last time the three slates together had 11 MKs, this time 12-14 seems reasonable, and 15 is not, perhaps, out of question. These will be the MKs that will not be available to form a government (though some might be willing to support a leftist government from the outside). So, if they get 15 seats (unlikely, but not, perhaps, fully impossible), the government would need 61/105 Jewish party MKs to support it, which would likely require a broader coalition.

The 3.25% rule was, largely, designed to discomfit the Arabs (only the Arabic parties have been consistent in getting 2%-4% votes for a long time; the Jewish parties who get that vote share are either one-election wonders, or those on the upswing into/exit from the major politics). Instead it has produced further consolidation and further definition of the Arab voter as, first and foremost, a non-Jew.

[ag]

So, seems Tibi agreed to the fourth spot (rather than the first) in exchange for the 12th/15th rotation for his second (whoever that is going to be). Which indicates that he, at least, reasonably expects 12 or more seats for the joint slate. The argument for the 13th/14th rotation suggests that there are serious hopes for more. 15 would be fun to watch, though probably will not happen

[ag]

Seems it will be the United Democratic Party.

[ag]

Totally missed these post-Arab merger polls. 12 isn't a very big jump. It's only one more than they usually get. If they do that poorly, I can't imagine the alliance lasting long.

The alliance is not meant to last. It is a shotgun marriage, based on the new 3.25% threshold. If they went separately, every single one of them would be at risk of missing the threshold - and it would be a miracle if more than 2 passed it. So, without the alliance, they would not be getting even 10 seats between the four - possibly, none.

Politicians involved (with the possible exception of Ahmad Tibi) are not at all happy about having to ally. They were simply not given a choice.

[ag]

Channel 10 poll had Liberman on 4 yesterday, Karma will be a darling if she makes Liberman stay out because of the threshold he raised

It would be fun. Especially if he comes in at something like 3.2%, with some of his wasted vote electing an extra Arab

[ag]

Aren't Arab-Israelis actually something like 20% of the population of Israel? I realize that some of them vote for "Zionist parties" such as Meretz or Labour etc... but I think the vast majority of those who do vote vote for Arab parties meaning that if Arab-Israelis actually voted at the same rate as Jewish-Israelis - the Arab Alliance party would likely be getting something like 20 seats - which would have HUGE implications for government formation in Israel.

Any thoughts?

Well, yes, Arabs do not vote at the same rates as the Jews. Also, many Arabs do vote for Zionist parties. Also, "Arabs" here includes the Druze and the like, who vote for all sorts of parties. On the other hand, a few Jews vote for Hadash - though, at this point, far too few.

It would be interesting to see if the Arab turnout goes up - and if the pollsters would be able to take account of it beforehand.

And, yes, 20 MKs on the Arab slate would make government formation in Israel interesting.

[ag]

Bad news for the joint list (Arab). Taleb Al Sana, a former MK for RAAM, will lead his own list that will compete with them for Arab votes. He won't pass the threshold but all the votes he gets will be instead of the joint list.

Does he have any independent support? Who would be voting for him?

[ag]

He did this last time, ended up returning to Raam-Taal.

It seems that Bibi gave slot 11 to Benny Begin. A lot of people turned him down.

It's not the same, last time he threatened to split but ended up being in the fifth spot (they got 4). This time the lists have already been submitted, and The Joint list has given one in without him, and he has given in his own list. At most he could theoretically drop out, but he can't be put on the Joint List in any case, so he will probably continue his run.

Well, the question is, if he has a reliable personal vote or not. There will be a strong communal pressure to ignore him otherwise.

[ag]

Is there any tactical voting in Israel i.e. Likud voters voting for Yishai so that they can pass the threshold?!

This is a sort of a question, that can only be speculated on. Israel used to have one of the lowest electoral thresholds anywhere - until some 20 years ago it was 1%. Obviously, with the threshold so low, nobody cared about tactical voting. They raised it gradually, first to 1.5%, then to 2%. Suddenly, this time it jumps to 3.25%. How this will work out, nobody knows. So far, there is obvious tactical coalition formation (at least, on the Arab side). The rest... New electoral systems take time to get adjusted to.

[ag]

I don't rate their odds that high to get in but we'll see. Regardless if they only get in with 4 Marzel can't split as the law requires a third of the faction.

I don't know this, but I always assumed that the law was only a problem if the two sides don't agree. If both sides agree would it still be a problem?

Not sure about mutual consent I checked the laws and there's nothing about it. According to the current law (Amend. 39 2012) you need a third of the faction to have it done. They could do a legal trick by splitting 2-2 and then the other half will re-split and leave Marzel alone

Couldn't the majority split on its own, leaving Marzel alone?

[ag]

Panels/Knesset

Likud - 25
Labor/Livini - 24
Jewish Home - 13
United Arab Parties - 12
Yesh Atid - 11
Kulanu - 8
UTJ - 7
Shas - 6
Meretz - 5
Yisrael Beitenu - 5
Racists - 4

Calling Eli Yishai's party "racists" doesn't make sense at all. I suggest you just put "Yachad Ha'am Itanu-Otzma" there.

Well, including a Nazi in the list would have an effect on one's reputation, wouldn't it?

[ag]

Panels/Knesset

Likud - 25
Labor/Livini - 24
Jewish Home - 13
United Arab Parties - 12
Yesh Atid - 11
Kulanu - 8
UTJ - 7
Shas - 6
Meretz - 5
Yisrael Beitenu - 5
Racists - 4

Calling Eli Yishai's party "racists" doesn't make sense at all. I suggest you just put "Yachad Ha'am Itanu-Otzma" there.

Well, including a Nazi in the list would have an effect on one's reputation, wouldn't it?

Andrés Manuel López Obrador joined Yishai's party?

Good one

But, then, let me go on being terminolgical Nazi AMLO may be a wannabe Duce, and a national socialist, but he is too Latin to use the two-sylable word

[ag]

Panels/Knesset

Likud - 25
Labor/Livini - 24
Jewish Home - 13
United Arab Parties - 12
Yesh Atid - 11
Kulanu - 8
UTJ - 7
Shas - 6
Meretz - 5
Yisrael Beitenu - 5
Racists - 4

Calling Eli Yishai's party "racists" doesn't make sense at all. I suggest you just put "Yachad Ha'am Itanu-Otzma" there.

Well, factually it's correct. I'll agree that it doesn't make much sense to single them out, considering parties like Balad, Ra'am, and Shas are also running.

I think you are confusing Balad and Likud

[ag]

So now the invented "Palestinian" people has even become a "race"?

In the same way that the equally invented "Jewish" people did. As a racist yourself, you would have first-hand experience in how this happens.

[ag]

So now the invented "Palestinian" people has even become a "race"?

In the same way that the equally invented "Jewish" people did. As a racist yourself, you would have first-hand experience in how this happens.

Lol! Still don't care about Israel haters and Jew bashers calling me a racist, only makes me smile, so thanks for that.

I happen to be Jewish. Which only makes me hate Jewish racists more.