Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Tender Branson]

I've read something recently that Likud is out with a fearmongering TV ad, showing an Islamic State truck with the Labour logo on it and the terrorists asking where the road to Jerusalem is or something ...

Not that I understand anything what they say, but is there a YouTube link ?

[Tender Branson]

I've read something recently that Likud is out with a fearmongering TV ad, showing an Islamic State truck with the Labour logo on it and the terrorists asking where the road to Jerusalem is or something ...

Not that I understand anything what they say, but is there a YouTube link ?

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10152711679142076&id=268108602075&fs=5

The car doesn't have a Labour logo,  it says anyone but Bibi.

It says you have to log into Facebook to watch the video.

I don't use this crappy site.

Do you also have a real link ? YouTube maybe ?

[Tender Branson]

I've read something recently that Likud is out with a fearmongering TV ad, showing an Islamic State truck with the Labour logo on it and the terrorists asking where the road to Jerusalem is or something ...

Not that I understand anything what they say, but is there a YouTube link ?

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10152711679142076&id=268108602075&fs=5

The car doesn't have a Labour logo,  it says anyone but Bibi.

It says you have to log into Facebook to watch the video.

I don't use this crappy site.

Do you also have a real link ? YouTube maybe ?

Found it, by typing in "Likud ad".

I thought it would be harder to find because of the Hebrew writing.

[Tender Branson]

Polling shows Herzog with a lead entering the polling blackout.  I hope that Herzog is able to pull together a coalition after all is said and done after March 17 - Bibi is a dangerous man and needs to get voted out.

[Tender Branson]

Let's try a prediction for this one:

Seats

  24 Zionist Union (Labor/Hatnuah)
  23 Likud
  13 Joint Arab list (Hadash/UAL-Ta'al/Balad)
  12 Yesh Atid
  11 Jewish Home
    9 Kulanu
    7 Shas
    6 UTJ
    5 Meretz
    5 Yisrael Beiteinu
    5 Yachad/Otzma Yehudit
120 Total

...

Turnout: ~65%

[Tender Branson]

last minute prediction: JH will fall and likud will boost up to maybe even Labour who did the mistake of not attacking Lapid enough. Shas also falls badly

I already had a feeling that Likud might end up better than the polls said. That's why I already upwheighted Likud in my prediction yesterday. Now they might even finish ahead of the ZU, with the latest right-wing stunt ...

[Tender Branson]

When will the polls close tomorrow in Israel? I would like to follow the results.

I guess at 10pm local time, which is 9pm CET or 4pm EST.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout running slightly below last time. 36.7% vs 38.3% in 2013 by 2pm

I predicted 65% overall. So far, so good.

[Tender Branson]

I actually went back home without voting because of the massive cue at the ballot.

How is that even possible ?

There are 5.9 million eligible voters in Israel today and there are more than 10.000 polling stations. That's an average of 590 voters per precinct. Turnout is 70%, so 413 voters per precinct. You have more than 12 hours to vote, which means 40 people per hour.

There shouldn't be any line really and certainly not long enough that you need to go home without voting ...

[Tender Branson]

I actually went back home without voting because of the massive cue at the ballot.

How is that even possible ?

There are 5.9 million eligible voters in Israel today and there are more than 10.000 polling stations. That's an average of 590 voters per precinct. Turnout is 70%, so 413 voters per precinct. You have more than 12 hours to vote, which means 40 people per hour.

There shouldn't be any line really and certainly not long enough that you need to go home without voting ...

Some precincts are bound to be above the mean, probably around 800 or even 1,000 in urban cores, and people do not distribute themselves well to vote at different hours, they tend to all go at a few selected windows. So I'm not shocked. Still, I get why you get frustrated coming from a country where polls open only Sunday morning till 1 PM and you get 80 % turnout on a bad day...

Yeah, people might vote in heavier numbers before going to work and after work or during lunch break. Therefore the lines.

Which means Sunday (or holiday) voting is pretty cool, since people are voting more evenly during the day and there is only 1 peak voting time: after lunch.

I guess Sunday (or holiday) voting is also good for getting enough poll workers, unless you use exclusively retirees - which have time any day.

(PS: polling stations in Austria do not close at 1pm, only in the state of Vorarlberg - which is Swiss-oriented)

[Tender Branson]

Netanyahu press conference banned from airwaves

The Central Elections Committee has issued an injunction against live broadcasting a statement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later this evening.

Netanyahu's office announced the prime minister intends to make a statement at 5:45 P.M.

The Zionist Union and Yesh Atid parties petitioned the committee against the broadcast. According to the committee's head, Justice Salim Joubran, the statement qualifies as election propaganda, and is therefore banned.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/1.647304

Excellent.

[Tender Branson]

54.6% turnout by 6 PM, as compared to 55.5% in 2013. The numbers getting closer to the last time.

Which means 65-68% after all is said and done.

[Tender Branson]

Pretty cool that turnout is increasing for the 3rd time in a row now.

[Tender Branson]

"Uggghhhh" sums it all up really.

I already had a feeling that Likud might pull it off again and they did. The Left fails again in winning elections.

I already upwheighted Likud in my prediction yesterday. Now they might even finish ahead of the ZU, with the latest right-wing stunt ...

Any chance the centrist parties are still tolerating a Labour-led minority government ?