Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[danny]

and Kahlon's party is probably a plow to trick working class people into voting for a Likud led coalition. Netanyahu tried to do a similar thing before with a party called Social Justice, which never got off the ground.

Kachlon isn't a plot and it would be a really stupid plan if he were, since right wing parties already get a big majority of working class voters. Social Justice had nothing to do with Bibi, it was just a personal creation of Arkadi Gaydmak with no ideology, other than being a tool of his, but was abandoned when Gaydmak failed badly in the Jerusalem local election.

[danny]

danny, you had that maps thread back in the days...will you update it with the 2013 data?

If I have time I'd like to, but I can't promise.

[danny]

Elections will be on the 17th of March.

[danny]

As for Meretz, don't forget that a few years ago they would have been delighted to be polling around about where they are now...

But not any time other than between 2 elections ago and the last one. The 2009 result is not a usual result, it happened because of Meretz voters voting for Kadima to try to get them past Likud.

[danny]

I suppose rather than go it totally alone Ariel might join the Kachist Strength to Israel.

The talk right now is for the National Union to join with Eli Yishai who will break away from Deri's Shas. Might happen, might not.

[danny]

Why won't Yeshai join Likud? That seems like the obvious thing to do.

Because Likud don't want him and he'd lose more votes than he'd gain maybe?

Likud is nowhere near religious enough for Yishai to fit in well, so Yishai shouldn't want to join them.
But for Likud it would be ridiculously bad, he would cost them far more votes than he would bring in, this is basically the kind move the Likud should make if they wanted to prop up Lapid or Lieberman.

[danny]

Is the agreement between Mofaz and Herzog going to be just for Mofaz, who'll just switch parties leaving Kadima to flounder under the threshold, or is it going to be a full alliance between Labor and Kadima, in which case Tirosh might get a position on the list, say in the teens? I thought it was going to be the latter, but Hasson resigning smells like Mofaz might be going for the former.

There is no longer such a thing as Kadima separate from Mofaz,  if he joins then that is the same as the party joining labour, regardless of whether other members come with him.

[danny]

EDIT: So, people seem to be confused as to what exactly Yishai's party name will be- some say Ha'am Itanu, others say Yachad.

there is no name yet.

[danny]

What happens if Likud gets the exact same number of seats as either Jewish Home or the Labour coalition? Which one gets to try to form a coalition?

It doesn't go by which party is the biggest, the important thing is which party can form a coalition with a majority of Knesset members. Kadima had 1 more seat in 2009, but Bibi still became PM, because he managed to create a coalition.

[danny]

There's a Muslim running in the Jewish Home primaries who's attracted some attention named Anett Haskia: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/188477#.VIjK2mTF9As

Ironically, while she's originally from Acre, she moved to Kibbutz Yehiam, a place where in the last elections Meretz was the biggest party followed by Labour, Lapid, and Livni, with the right being almost non-existent. So an Arab moving into an all Jewish place, is going to be one of the only right wingers there.

[danny]

Likud comptroller disqualifies Netanyahu from Likud leadership race; PM likely to appeal

http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Likud-comptroller-disqualifies-Netanyahu-from-Likud-leadership-race-PM-likely-to-appeal-385611

Wow.  Now that's intra-party infighting.  One way or another this does not make Netanyahu look that good for the general election.

I doubt anything comes out of this, and assuming Bibi will run as usual, I don't think people will care.

[danny]

The actual Hatnuah members don't seem to be very enthusiastic about the agreement Livni has set up; both David Tzur and Amram Mitzna have announced over the past few days that they won't be seeking reelection; and Elazar Stern has already said that he would be seeking reelection with a party other than the new Labor-Hatnuah list (which it's increasingly clear is basically just Labor, with Trajtenberg having been recruited by Labor and promised one of Hatnuah's slots).

The deal was good for Livni with the rotation, but was far less beneficial for the other party members. But it isn't a real problem since the Movement isn't a real party, just a tool that Livni needed, and she's the only one that really matters there.

[danny]

Didn't he merge with Likud like a year ago?

There was no merger, He simply joined the Likud himself and told his supporters to do the same. The problem for him is that the elections came too soon, which means that his supporters don't have the necessary tenure to vote in the primaries, so he gave up on that idea for the current elections, but hasn't officially announced what he will be doing instead.

[danny]

Do the Likud typically reserve seats for minorities/non-Jews?

If so, Ayoob Kara probably has a good shot.

Likud didn't need him last time because Beytenu provided their own token Druze.

This is how the Likud list will look like:

1) Head of the party, chosen in separate elections.
2-10, 12-15,17,20,25-26,31,34,36-117) National primary list
16,18-19,21-22,28-29,32-33,35) chosen in separate district primaries.
11,23,118-120) Hand picked choice by the head of the party.

within the national list there the following guarantees (cancelled if someone who fits this description is elected in a higher position) :
15) reserved for a woman.
23) Hand picked choice by the head of the party.
24) reserved for a non-Jew.
25) reserved for a woman who hasn't previously serve as an MK.
27) reserved for a a person who has immigrated since 1983, and hasn't previously served as an MK.
30) reserved for someone who is under 35 years old, and hasn't previously served as an MK.
31) reserved for a woman.
34) reserved for a woman who hasn't previously serve as an MK.


So there is a spot reserved for a non-Jew, but 24 isn't guaranteed to be enough. He also has a Muslim former army general and head of the Zarzir council running against him for this spot.

[danny]

In other news, Danon is literally a man-child:
https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=834060653283841

Not the first for videos like this, last elections we had "Elkin Style": http://youtu.be/wG5B5fE7_1k

[danny]

Are people talking about who will win the Likud primary (ie the number 2 spot) yet?

Presumably Erdan should get it pretty easily, since he's consistently been the top vote getter of the people still running.

He's always struck me as very generic though. I don't understand his appeal. Is there a chance Dannon could win? Netanyahu would have to be scared of that, right?

I don't think Dannon could win, there are too many people that dislike him, I would expect Ardan, Yisrael Katz, or maybe Silvan to win, as they don't have as many enemies.

[danny]

What's the overall mood in Likud right now? Is it going to be like last time where there was a slaughter of the moderates?

Predicting Primaries is hard, but I expect that almost all the incumbents running again will be fine.

[danny]

Deri and Yishai have been an entertaining mess this election.

[danny]

If you are wondering about the date for the primaries:

Likud: 31/12
Labour:13/1
Jewish Home: 14/1
Meretz: 19/1

[danny]

Netanyahu is winning 85-15 from the first results of about 3000 votes, nothing to see here.

[danny]

Danon has conceded to Netanyahu (no big surprise)

Results for the list may not come out until Friday. Why so long though? New Years?

The results should be out in a few hours, although it might take longer until they are official.

[danny]

Also, just for the sake of trivia, do people celebrate New Years in Israel?

Privately yes, but there isn't a national holiday.

[danny]

Bibi's margin has gone down a bit, he's at 75-80%.

[danny]

After 12% of the vote counted:
1) Ardan
2) Edelstein
3) Yisrael Katz
4) Elkin
5) Levin
6) Shalom
7) Ye'elon
8 ) Akunis
9) Gamliel
10) Regev

[danny]

Regev jumped to 4th.