Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Хahar 🤔]

I had no idea at all that there were any Ahmadi in Israel.

So in other words if Arab-Israelis would just get their act together and start voting en masse - they could prevent a monstrosity like Netanyahu from ever being able to form a government again. It could be like the impact that Black and Latino voters now have on American presidential politics!

I think it's at least equally likely that mass Arab participation in the electoral process would lead to a further rightward shift in the Jewish vote.

[Хahar 🤔]

The two sides hate each other, but that hasn't precluded Likud-Labor coalitions in the past...

If I were deciding for Labor, and such a coalition were for some reason desirable, I would propose, as a compromise, that the PM be anybody other than the two leaders. Netaniyahu as the PM has broken too many partners.  Make him the tourism minister.

To what extent is Likud governed by Netanyahu's personality? I would imagine that that might pose a problem.

[Хahar 🤔]

And now Likud is basically implying the liberal parties are bussing in Arabs and buying votes.

This is disgusting. Even conservative Israelis should be appalled by how Bibi has Americanized their electoral process.

Speaking of which : my brother and I were wondering yesterday evening whether Israeli elections taking place on Tuesday is due to American electoral influence, or other type of influence. Broadly speaking, normal countries vote on Sundays, the sane option, and anglo-saxon influenced countries vote during the week, mainly on Tuesdays or Thursdays, the insane option.

Sunday is a work day in Israel, so no better than any other day. And Saturday would be impossible due to the Jewish Sabbath restrictions. And if Saturday is impossible, so is Friday and, in fact Sunday - otherwise you'd be discriminating against the Muslims and Christians. Hence, not much choice, really.

Well, yeah, actually, still a choice between Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday ! So why Tuesday ?

Well, not really Thursday: getting too close to the Muslim Sabbath as well. Why not Tuesday then?

Of course, there is, properly speaking, no such thing as a Muslim Sabbath, only a day of congregational prayer. Still I imagine that Muslims would be offended by a Friday election.

[Хahar 🤔]

There's a very specific sort of incumbent victory that has a certain rather shabby feel about it isn't there?

Anyway, if we compare the provisional results to the final polls, if we accept that minor deviations are to be expected, then it's really only three parties with polling scores that look very clearly *wrong*: Likud, Jewish Home and Yachad. And that's the election explained, or something.

That's right. According to the last polls I've seen in Wikipedia, the right-religious bloc was expected to get between 55-57 and the left-Arab bloc 41-44. That's exactly what happened (though it ended up in the higher end for the former and the lower end for the latter). Most transfers have been internal to blocs.

THe problem with this analysis is that these blocs don't really exist. Had ZU beaten Likud decisively they would have had a decent shot at roping in Kulanu and/or Shas/UTJ and form a government.

You mean Shas and UTJ were open to supporting a Left-wing government over a Centre-Right one when both were a possibility? I wouldn't have thought.

They only would have done it if Labor came in first place. They'll go along with the plurality winner because they just want to be in power regardless. They aren't going to act as kingmaker for a runner up though, that would be seen as showing too much favor to that party and hurt future relations with the other.

So a vote for them is essentially a wasted vote? At least in terms of deciding who will govern the country.

Just think of very religious Jews as a minority group (which they are) like minorities in other list-based electoral democracies and it makes more sense. It's a similar situation to SSW in Schleswig-Holstein for Danes or SFP in Finland for Swedes or DPS in Bulgaria for Turks.