Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[DL]

Maybe Israel just needs "the Silly Party" and "The Sensible Party"

[DL]

Aren't Arab-Israelis actually something like 20% of the population of Israel? I realize that some of them vote for "Zionist parties" such as Meretz or Labour etc... but I think the vast majority of those who do vote vote for Arab parties meaning that if Arab-Israelis actually voted at the same rate as Jewish-Israelis - the Arab Alliance party would likely be getting something like 20 seats - which would have HUGE implications for government formation in Israel.

Any thoughts?

[DL]

So in other words if Arab-Israelis would just get their act together and start voting en masse - they could prevent a monstrosity like Netanyahu from ever being able to form a government again. It could be like the impact that Black and Latino voters now have on American presidential politics!

[DL]

Two new polls.

Left/Center (Labor+Yesh Atid+Kulanu+Meretz) = 48
Right-Wing (Likud+Jewish Home+Yisrael Beitenu) = 42
Religious (UTJ+Shas+Racists) = 17
Arabs = 13

[/quote]

Isn't Jewish Home part of the "Religious" block as opposed to the "Right-Wing" block since they are basically a new name for the national Religious Party?

[DL]

The poll also indicates the % of (Arab) voters will rise to 62.4%

What was the Arab turnout in the last election and what is the comparable turnout estimate among Jewish Israelis?

[DL]

Are there any rumours as to what the parties internal polling is saying after the ban on public polling kicked in on Friday?

[DL]

Weren't people speculating that ditching Livni from the PM rotation could net the ZU an extra two seats? who would those come from?

[DL]

So the word is that at this stage overall turnout is down a bit compared to 2012 but apparently turnout is up in Arab-Israeli areas - I wonder if that means that a. the Joint list may do even better than the polls suggest and get 14 seats and b. if turnout is down a bit in the rest of the country it suggests to me that Netan-yahoo's attempt to rally his base isn't doing much and that a lot of former Likud voters may be unmotivated and won't bother to vote.

[DL]

Interestingly Sunday is supposed to be the Christian sabbath/day or rest - and yet that doesn't stop overwhelmingly Christian countries such as France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Chile, Argentina and many others from having national elections on Sundays!

Is there some rule i missed that says that Jews and Muslims consider voting to be "work" while Christians see it as a "rest day activity"?

[DL]

No country with a non-Lutheran Protestant majority has elections on a Sunday, and it is no coincidence: once upon a time, it would have been viewed as very problematic.

France?

Did you misread it? France does not have a Protestant majority.

The only countries in the world that come to mind as having "non-Lutheran Protestant majorities" are UK, US, Australia and New Zealand...and maybe a few islands in the Caribbean

[DL]

The average of polls has put the anti-Bibi/left at 55-57 seats for about the past six weeks...nothing new there

[DL]

Getting just 8 seats has to be a catastrophically bad result for Jewish Home - not too long ago Bennett seemed to have so much momentum and they were looking to get in the high teens

[DL]

Likud cannibalized everyone to get to this lead-tie. If they didn't marginalize the other right-wing parties, Herzog would be ending this round with a healthy lead and massive international pressure to make him PM.

Since when does "international pressure" make any difference to coalition negotiations in Israel???

[DL]

In 2009 didn't Netanyahu end up forming a government even though Kadima under Livni had one or two seats more than Likud?

[DL]

The final round of polls mostly gave JH 12-13 seats and Yachad 5 seats - that would be 17-18 for the extreme extreme right (Likud is only extreme right) - now the extreme extreme right gets a grand total of 8 seats...

[DL]

When do actual results (as opposed to exit polls) start to come in?

[DL]

seems like a ridiculously large cabinet for a such a small country!