Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

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The question is whether or not Liberman would consider joining the left. It's unlikely but he might be able to do it if he gets civil marriage as a result.

He joined Ehud Olmert's government in 2006, but pulled out after 2 years in 2008.

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Possibly the name Labor won't be used (it wasn't in 1999 when Labor ran a joint list with Gesher and Meimad; that was called "One Israel", but it was Labor in all but name), but it would still be Labor and voters would understand this. If they want to not say Labor but have voters understand that it is Labor, the historical names that have been used are Yisrael Ahat ("One Israel") and HaMa'arakh ("Alignment", which was the name Labor went by for 22 years, 1969-1991).

Or they could just say Labor-Hatnuah-Kadima; there's precedent for stringing three party names together instead of coming up with a new name. It's four that would set a record.

Too bad Sharon couldn't have hung on for a few more months. It would have been amusing to see him become a Labor party member against his will.  Would show how far to the right Israeli politics has moved.

Huh? If Sharon had hung on for a few more months, Kadima would have won a bigger victory in 2006. Kadima was a major party for 7 years purely off of Sharon's legacy; the longer he lives, the more established Kadima would be as a major party. Eventually, Labor may have joined Sharon's Kadima rather than the reverse.

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Is the agreement between Mofaz and Herzog going to be just for Mofaz, who'll just switch parties leaving Kadima to flounder under the threshold, or is it going to be a full alliance between Labor and Kadima, in which case Tirosh might get a position on the list, say in the teens? I thought it was going to be the latter, but Hasson resigning smells like Mofaz might be going for the former.

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Is the agreement between Mofaz and Herzog going to be just for Mofaz, who'll just switch parties leaving Kadima to flounder under the threshold, or is it going to be a full alliance between Labor and Kadima, in which case Tirosh might get a position on the list, say in the teens? I thought it was going to be the latter, but Hasson resigning smells like Mofaz might be going for the former.

There is no longer such a thing as Kadima separate from Mofaz,  if he joins then that is the same as the party joining labour, regardless of whether other members come with him.

But the point of the question was, would other members (like Tirosh) also receive guaranteed positions on the Labor list? Even if the second Kadima member gets a spot in the teens, that's still a pretty realistic shot at getting back in the Knesset. Hasson resigning seems to point to no (though, since Hasson was originally a floor-crosser from Yisrael Beiteinu, maybe he just doesn't want to be associated with Labor).

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I see -- under that circumstance, Hasson resigning for greener pastures makes sense.

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Limor Livnat won't be seeking another term.

I wonder who's threatening to break away.

Considering the well-publicized need of the Israeli left to stay unified, and that these are apparently five unknown backbenchers, could they realistically fail to hit the 3.25% barrier if they run alone? I feel like that number will keep them within Herzog's list.

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There's a Muslim running in the Jewish Home primaries who's attracted some attention named Anett Haskia: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/188477#.VIjK2mTF9As

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In minor-party news, far-far-right party Otzma LeYisrael, which came within a few tenths of a percent of getting into the Knesset in 2013, is being reorganized as Otzma Yehudit, to be led by former National Union MK Michael Ben-Ari.

Speculation continues to be rampant about the possibility of a joint Likud-JH list, or a joint Kulanu-YA list, but both in my judgement seems unlikely to happen.

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A poll of Arab voters apparently shows most would prefer, if an all-Arab parties list were to be formed, it would be headed by MK Ahmad Tibi: http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4602589,00.html .

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Eli Yishai has announced that he will attempt to have his party called Maran, which in Aramaic means "our master"; it was what the disciples of Rabbi Ovadia Yosef frequently called him, to the extent that the word is apparently today usually associated with Yosef. If, for whatever reason, this name is not approved by the Registrar, Yishai also announced the backup name Yahad (Hebrew for "together"), which has previously been used as a name twice: once by a center-left party founded by Ezer Weizmann that contested the 1984 elections and then merged into the Alignment (basically the forerunner of today's Labor Party), and from 2003-2004 the merger of Meretz and Shahar was called this (before reverting to the name Meretz, which was by far the dominant partner).

There've been so many different parties over the course of Israeli history that names are starting to have to be reused

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Meretz changed their name back because Yachad means "poison" in Russian.

As a Russian speaker I can tell you that, while it sounds similar to the word poison ("yad"), that is not what it means and in fact it is a nonsense word. They chose Yachad over the word Ya'ad (Hebrew for "goal") because ya'ad sounds like the word poison, and then changed it back to Meretz because Meretz is a brand name, nobody knew who they were when they were Yachad, and Yossi Beilin (previously the leader of Shahar, the smaller part of the merger) was elected leader of Meretz and acquiesced to the change back.

Also, Labor and Hatnuah have hammered out their agreement; Hatnuah will have 6 of the first 25 seats. The first four Hatnuah members (Livni/Mitzna/Peretz/Stern) should be able to get back into the Knesset; but beyond that it looks pretty dicey.

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Is Mofaz a 'wanted' recruit? He was Defense Minister for four years, is not corrupt, and can claim that he played a role in ending the Second Intifada. His electoral record isn't the best, but surely that's a profile parties might look for?

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The actual Hatnuah members don't seem to be very enthusiastic about the agreement Livni has set up; both David Tzur and Amram Mitzna have announced over the past few days that they won't be seeking reelection; and Elazar Stern has already said that he would be seeking reelection with a party other than the new Labor-Hatnuah list (which it's increasingly clear is basically just Labor, with Trajtenberg having been recruited by Labor and promised one of Hatnuah's slots).

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Another long shot Likud primary candidate:

Corrupt businessman and vote buying former MK Shmuel Flatto-Sharon, who was elected as an independent* to the Knesset way back in 1977.

*Yes, he ran as an independent under a party list system, actually won enough votes for 2 seats, and had to forgo the second one.

He's wealthy and might have an actual shot -- the interesting question is why now, at age 84, when he's had decades to return to politics should he want to.

RIP Mitzna

In other news, Third Temple advocate Yehuda Glick will be running for a spot on the Likud slate... he doesn't want to be placed in a realistic spot though.

Also with all these shenanigans Bennett must be squealing with excitement right now.

Glick was in some unwinnable slot in 2013. This is basically just a way for him to endorse the Likud; I don't think he actually wants to be an MK.

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A big corruption scandal involving Israel Beitenu (surprise surprise) with deputy minister Kirshenbaum, former minister Maszhinkov and many party politicos involved. Liberman is trying to break to the centre this might make him re-break to the right again

I doubt this will have much effect at all. Kirshenbaum and Maszhinkov are faceless seatfillers. Lieberman will simply not reappoint them to realistic spots when he makes up his list.

*Misezhnikov was already kicked off the island in 2013; he's history. Kirschenbaum is supposed to be a very close Lieberman confidante, though, so we'll see if he's really willing to get rid of her. In the past, when Beiteinu MKs have gotten too controversial he's just knocked them off the list (Esterina Tartman and Anastasia Michaeli come to mind).

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The actual Hatnuah members don't seem to be very enthusiastic about the agreement Livni has set up; both David Tzur and Amram Mitzna have announced over the past few days that they won't be seeking reelection; and Elazar Stern has already said that he would be seeking reelection with a party other than the new Labor-Hatnuah list (which it's increasingly clear is basically just Labor, with Trajtenberg having been recruited by Labor and promised one of Hatnuah's slots).

And Meir Sheetrit is out as well. So the only Hatnuah MKs on Labor's list will be Livni herself and Peretz, and of the others Stern is considering running as part of a different party and the other three are out.

JPost says that with Sheetrit and Ben-Eliezer gone in the next Knesset, Peretz will be the most senior MK. This depends on how you count, I think -- Peretz's service since 1988 is unbroken, but Uzi Landau was first elected in 1984, though he left 2006-2009.

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The Labor Party has approved the candidacy of Eldad Yaniv in the primaries, who led the minor party Eretz Hadasha in 2013, but it has rejected the candidacy of Shachiv Shnaan, who has served twice as an MK: from 2008-2009 as a member of Labor, and from 2012-2013 as a member of the now-defunct Independence Party of Ehud Barak. There is now a third confirmed candidate for Kulanu, after Moshe Kahlon and Michael Oren: Eli Alaluf, who was the head of a Knesset-appointed anti-poverty commission.

EDIT: In further news, Am Shalem, a minor party led by former Shas MK Haim Amsalem, plans to run again in 2015. This will make it harder for Shas and Ha'Am Itanu to cross the threshold. Am Shalem got over 1% of the vote in 2013, but the new threshold should make Knesset seats basically impossible. Ayoob Kara, a Druze who has served three terms as a Likud MK (1999-2006 and 2009-2013) before being demoted to an impossibly low slot in 2013, is running for a spot on the Likud list, hoping to reenter the Knesset.

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Didn't he merge with Likud like a year ago?

Arutz Sheva says he plans to run alone after being rebuffed by Jewish Home: http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/189123#.VJyS9sAw

But JPost reported a while ago that he was going to seek a position on Likud's list: http://www.jpost.com/National-News/Haim-Amsallem-joins-Likud-criticizes-Bayit-Yehudi-for-stance-on-conversion-347309

So...

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So, will five of those ten people running for the 2-6 bracket just not end up on the list? That hardly seems like a fair system.

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In other news, Benet has reserved a spot on the list for his new recruit, newscaster Yinon Magal. Haaretz notes vaguely that "some in the party were unhappy" with Benet reserving a spot for Magal; Arutz Sheva goes in more depth (as might be expected of a website that doesn't hide its support for Benet/religious Zionism), explaining that the two noted sources of criticism are Rabbi Shimon Or and Raz Kiel, who are both new recruits running in the Jewish Home's primaries; basically they're angry no spot is reserved for them.

Also, Uzi Landau, who served as a Likud MK from 1984-2006 and then a Yisrael Beiteinu MK 2009-present, and was in the Cabinet under Sharon's Likud government and then throughout Netanyahu's second government, announced his retirement from politics amid Yisrael Beiteinu continuing to sink in the polls (though his reelection was probably assured; the party is above the threshold in all polling, and he was #2 on the list in 2009 and #3 of Yisrael Beiteinu's list in 2013). He is 71; this means there will be no remaining MKs left from before the 1988 election, though there are still many left from 1988, absolutely none have continuous service (!); though former Labor leader Amir Peretz will be the most-senior member of the Knesset, as his only break since 1988 was a resignation in 2012, and he returned in 2013.

EDIT: Also, I haven't been able to find English-language reporting on the results of Meretz's primaries, which I believe took place yesterday. Hnv, I know you're a party member -- have the results been announced yet? If so, what are they?

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Apparently in his move to the center, Lieberman was plotting to kick his right flank off the island... the three the article mentioned were Landau, Shamir, and Rotem. Maybe Landau got the hint early?

Kicking Shamir off would be a pretty remarkable move just 2 years after recruiting him and giving him the #2 spot. Rotem would make sense; he's been around since 2007 and has made enemies in that time.

JPost has an article about the Likud primaries. All current Likud MKs, with the exception of veteran MK and minister Limor Livnat, are seeking reelection. JPost lists five prominent non-incumbent candidates: Avi Dichter, who was a Kadima MK from 2006-2012, and a minister under Olmert and Netanyahu; Ayub Kara, a Druze who has been a Likud MK from 1999-2006 and 2009-2013; Michael Ratzon, who was a Likud MK 2003-2006; Nava Boker, the widow of former Israeli Police Commissioner Lior Boker; and Jerusalem city councilman Yair Gabbay. Likud currently has 19 MKs (18 seeking reelection) and is expected to gain a number in the low 20s, so a few of these people may well (re)enter the Knesset.

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How many seats does HaAm Itanu have? Just 2?

Yup, 2. Yishai himself and Yoni Chetboun, formerly of Jewish Home. Ultimately, Tkuma voted to continue being a part of Jewish Home; had they voted to join Ha'Am Itanu, it would have added 4 members to their ranks.

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How many seats does HaAm Itanu have? Just 2?

Yup, 2. Yishai himself and Yoni Chetboun, formerly of Jewish Home. Ultimately, Tkuma voted to continue being a part of Jewish Home; had they voted to join Ha'Am Itanu, it would have added 4 members to their ranks.

*3 new members- Ben Dahan decided to run with JH rather than accept a reserved spot.

Who's the third member since Ben-Dahan decided to stay with Jewish Home? (He's one of those 4 Tkuma members).

Also, since we're talking about these right-wing factions, I have a question -- does Moledet still exist? It definitely existed as a faction within the National Union during the 2009-2013 Knesset, when Ya'akov Katz was widely reported to be its sole MK. In 2013, Hatikva and Eretz Yisrael Shelanu merged to form Otzma LeYisrael, which was excluded from the Knesset, while Tkuma and Moledet joined with Jewish Home. But while it's known who the members of JH are that are really part of Tkuma, it's not clear whether any Jewish Home MKs consider themselves to be part of Moledet, or if Katz was really the final one.

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How many seats does HaAm Itanu have? Just 2?

Yup, 2. Yishai himself and Yoni Chetboun, formerly of Jewish Home. Ultimately, Tkuma voted to continue being a part of Jewish Home; had they voted to join Ha'Am Itanu, it would have added 4 members to their ranks.

*3 new members- Ben Dahan decided to run with JH rather than accept a reserved spot.

Who's the third member since Ben-Dahan decided to stay with Jewish Home? (He's one of those 4 Tkuma members).

Also, since we're talking about these right-wing factions, I have a question -- does Moledet still exist? It definitely existed as a faction within the National Union during the 2009-2013 Knesset, when Ya'akov Katz was widely reported to be its sole MK. In 2013, Hatikva and Eretz Yisrael Shelanu merged to form Otzma LeYisrael, which was excluded from the Knesset, while Tkuma and Moledet joined with Jewish Home. But while it's known who the members of JH are that are really part of Tkuma, it's not clear whether any Jewish Home MKs consider themselves to be part of Moledet, or if Katz was really the final one.

The three members are Ariel, Stuck, and Kalfa. Chetboun was not a part of Tekumah.

Chetboun wasn't, but Ben-Dahan was...but when I searched for a source to prove it I discovered he switched to 'regular' Jewish Home to protest Tkuma considering running with HaAm Itanu (which it didn't, but still...). So your post was absolutely right. Tkuma still has four spots "reserved", which'll presumably go to Ariel, Strook, Kalfa, and a new person.

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Yesterday was not the primaries for the party list but rather for electing representatives to the national convention. Primaries will be held in 2 weeks I think.

Oh, I see.

Deri resigned the Knesset!

And called for Ariel Atias to replace him in both the Knesset and as party leader. Shas' Council of Torah Sages rejected his resignation as leader of the party when the tape was first released, so they may still ask Deri to lead Shas in the elections.