Israel General Election Thread: March 17 2015

[Hnv1]

Opened a thread before the Knesset voted to dissolve?! you doomes us with another right victory.

[Hnv1]

Is there any chance off an right-wing non ortodox guvernemnt i.e. Likud with Bayit Yehudi, Yisrael Beitenu and the New Kachlon Party or even Yesh Atid?!

Yes, depends on the results. A weak Likud like last time arond will tie Bibi's hands to a coalition he again doesn't want. a strong Likud plus strong JH result will get us the traditional right wing-orthodox government. Liberman as always is a wildcard

Former minister (and Labour leader) Peretz said he wants Labour, YA, Livni, Kadima and maybe even Meretz to unite around Herzog (who got 19% in PM-fit compared to Bibi's 31%). Unlikely...but considering this election will be more or less a referendum on Bibi himself we might see very interesting combination with their sole aim to kick him out.

[Hnv1]

and Kahlon's party is probably a plow to trick working class people into voting for a Likud led coalition. Netanyahu tried to do a similar thing before with a party called Social Justice, which never got off the ground.

Kachlon isn't a plot and it would be a really stupid plan if he were, since right wing parties already get a big majority of working class voters. Social Justice had nothing to do with Bibi, it was just a personal creation of Arkadi Gaydmak with no ideology, other than being a tool of his, but was abandoned when Gaydmak failed badly in the Jerusalem local election.

I think he's talking about a small 'social justice' party that ran in 2013, kinda like how Mozes tried running a small russian party to steal votes from Bibi and Liberman.

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Kachlon+ the Israeli voter is not quite sure what's the shape of things to come. I think is we grow closer Meretz will hit 8-9 in polling but the 12 we saw earlier in polling will not be duplicated.

Some russian political reporter for Makor Rishon is trying to run in the JH. I would pay attention because there's a chunk of russian who grew closer to reigion and like Bennet and I think most of his surge will come from Liberman and Shas voters

Arab radio broadcaster zoher bahalul annunced he trying to secure a spot at Meretz (will join former Haaretz columnist Avirama Golan and former Major General Eyal Ben Reuven). Though by Inside information I gathered there might be a problem because Meretz are supposed to elect a new party convention at the end of this month (same body that selects the chairman and party list) and there might be a rpoblem with that now.

[Hnv1]

danny, you had that maps thread back in the days...will you update it with the 2013 data?

[Hnv1]

I wonder how the Arabs in Israel votes.  I think Arabs make up 20% of the Israel population.  But it seems Hadash/UAL/Balad gets around 10% of the vote.  Are Arabs 20% of the registered voters ?  I assume it is for sure not since some of them would refuse to participate in the process.  Still, I wonder what happen to the other 10% of 20%.  Do some of them vote for the mainstream parties ? (Labor, Likud, Yesh Atid...)

In Israel we don't have the GOP every citizen is a registered voter. There's around 50% voting in the Arab population. There used to be a large chunk of Labour and Meretz voters not so much any more. If I recall seeing a poll after 2013 around 90% of the Arab population vote for one of the three Arabic parties with the rest voting for Labour, Meretz, Likud, Shas etc (by that order)

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Not so much. The typical Meretz voter agreed with the party stance that there needs to be peace on the southern border but the war is pointless. they were circling 9 seats in polls well after it and with a backlash to the racist atmsphere you will see some centre voters tilt left too. As most reporters say Meretz and JH are the only parties seems set to profit in the election

[Hnv1]

Bennet is pretty much holding Ariel and the Tkuma memebers by the balls. They have no chance of running alone and he doesn't really need them but the old religious settlers establishment want them in with the JH. Many major rabbies like Avinari and Tau pretty much named him a secular.

Eli Ishay is rather dumb, true right now with Deri'i at the top they look set to get between 7-8 but if they split their strength will be even lower.

[Hnv1]

2 interesting polls from Globes:

Likud - 23
JH- 16
Labour - 15
YA - 10
Liberman - 10
Kachlon - 10
Shas - 9
Meretz - 7
UTJ - 7
Hadash - 5
Balad - 3
Ra'm- 3
Livni -2

What happens if Livni joins Labour?
Labour+Livni - 24
Likud -22
JH - 16
Liberman - 10
Shas - 9
Kachlon - 9
YA - 7
UTJ - 7
Meretz - 5
Hadash - 5
Balad - 3
Ra'm- 3

first poll In ages in which Likud are second

[Hnv1]

if Livni joins they will just name Tanuat Havoda (Labur movement which is the official name anyway).

Starting to look similar to 99 election with the anti-Bibi sentiment. good

[Hnv1]

I think it's a good question. I don't know why they wouldn't go through with a formal merger unless of course Kadima has a lot of debt, which is entirely possible.

As for a second seat, Herzog already told Mofaz he couldn't have it and Mofaz conceded. As for competing in the primaries like a normal Labor member, I don't think Tirosh would have much of a chance. As I pointed out, with 4 people getting appointed in the top 10, there's a limited number of realistic spots for incumbent Labor MKs, competition will be stiff.

Yohanan Plesner is much better known, he headed the commission on drafting the ultra-Orthodox. He would have had a slightly better chance but even he opted out.

Kadima are in massive debts...I'm not sure of what legal trick they'll do here to get the campaign funding money of Kadima without taking on the debts

[Hnv1]

I wonder who's threatening to break away.

Possibly the hardcore of Yechimovic camp...but it's remains are only Rosenthal, Mizrachi. Looks like a bit BS to me.

[Hnv1]

channel 10:
Labour+Livni 22
Likud 20
JH 15
Kachlon 13
Liberman 11
Lapid 10
Shas 7
UTJ 7
Meretz 6
Hadash 5
Ra'am Ta'al 4

PM fit:
Bibi 23%
Herzog 22%
Bennet 13%
Sahar 12%

[Hnv1]

Official - Herzog and Livni are forming a bloc, Kadima is not yet a part of it. The traditional 8PM press conference soon
Edit: Herzog and Livni agreed on PM rotation if they win. i truly can't understand how Herzog agreed
Edit #2: the bloc will be named "The Zionist Camp"...pretty lame

[Hnv1]

Seriously, I don't get Livni's deal.

It's not like Israeli politicians don't frequently come back from irrelevancy (Sharon, Bibi, Barack, Peretz). If she would just settle the F down, fly below the radar for a couple of cycles, she might be able to ride back in on a white horse.

Instead she just makes herself look desperate by constantly seeking power.

I'm probably jinxing myself though and she'll end up becoming PM.

Well it's not a good deal (even with rotation Herzog could have gotten a better deal), I think Herzog needed some boost to really rise to the front row and be seen as a candidate. Livni has a dowry of the support of Yediot Ahronot and you can't battle for PM without it.

Former leader Yechimovic supports this move and came out supporting Herzog. MK Ben Eliezer announced his retirement from political life from his hospital bed

Regarding the Arab at JH, everywhere in the world you see this anomalies...an immigrants' child at Ukip, a Jew in FN, a black republican. Bottom line, The electoral significance is minor.

[Hnv1]

hnv1, what is your opinion of Herzog as compared to past labor leaders; my impression is that he's pretty much average, a meh candidate in most respects.

And alas, more Jews are starting to support FN.

Also, what can we expect politically in the coming weeks? Any new campaign announcements etc?

He lacks charisma but he's rather intelligent. He to the left of Yechimovic on Peace issues but more centre on economic ones. He's a classic Labour prince connected to the old party establishment which will make him very popular with old people. From what I gather he's actually very gifted politically with combining different elements together as was seen during the 'Alternative Knesset' session. I do think he could make a good PM but he's a bit old school and sends a vibe of old Labour no PM since Eshkol had.
We will have to wait and see if he actually formulate into a good PM candidate, I personally believe he's the best since Mitzna and if he keeps gathering more elements under his banner he will look like a good leader though unexciting.

Lapid is a bit screwed right now with this union and I think he will lose and go futher down. He has nothing to run on, no one sees him as a possible PM and on economic issues Kachlon looks more exciting to the dumb centre voter.
There were rumours yesterday of a possible centre bloc with Liberman-Lapid-Kachlon, I find this very unlikely and any link with Liberman will see voters flock to Laour.

The question is what will Bibi do. He's not dumb and he feels the very hostile atmosphere, will he seek a union with JH? unknown yet but I'm sure he's hoping for a moderate list selected in the primariesץ


Meanwhile, Likud are really sinking to new lows calling Herzog a 'Nerd' and making misogynistic comments about Livni

[Hnv1]

Chetboun was head to head with Yogev on the dumbest MK

Tkuma might stay with JH who are expecting a very interesting primaries with dozens of candidates/

Bibi wants to reserve two spots for his candidates (rumoured to be former almost Cos MG Gallant), so far the party tribunal declared the move void

[Hnv1]

Bahloul will run with Labor, as will most likely Trajtenberg.
http://www.timesofisrael.com/soccer-radio-wiz-bahloul-likely-to-run-for-labor-seat/
This will be a loss for Meretz and Kachlon respectively.

Anyone know Trajtenberg's economic views?

centre-right. On one hand increase in government budgets to education and such and on the other disliking of a strong welfare state, high taxes and public ownership of many companies

[Hnv1]

Trajtenberg is getting the spot people thought was going to Mofaz?

He'll probably get the second spot secured for Livni's people (which will mean we'll see Mitzna booted to a very unrealistic place). Mofaz is not quite there yet and from what I gather from friends in Labour there are many people there who do'n't want to see him getting that spot. Mofaz is both right wing, unappealing, and has a hunch of huge debts with Kadima.
Diskin is still reluctant to hop in so Labour have to decide between Mofaz and former MG Yadlin (who isn't that dovish as well). We might see a very funny thing when Meretz will have an ex general on the list (Eyal Ben Reuven) and Labour won't.

Only 38 candidates  in the Labour primaries with no new big names. Bahloul I mentioned earlier decided to try his luck there.

I think that with the new threshold and the mess the political map is in we might even see another election very soon.

[Hnv1]

A big corruption scandal involving Israel Beitenu (surprise surprise) with deputy minister Kirshenbaum, former minister Maszhinkov and many party politicos involved. Liberman is trying to break to the centre this might make him re-break to the right again

[Hnv1]

Also interesting:
Meretz released the names of the 20 candidates who are running for a spot on the Meretz list (21 if you include Galon). Relatively few new names I don't see either Ben Reuven or Golan on the list (maybe hnv1 can elaborate). Meretz has a fairly odd system of voting where the 1000 members of the committee vote for three five member brackets: 2-6, 7-11, 12-16. There are ten people running for the first bracket: the MKs, former MKs Avshalom Vilan (kibbutznik) and Mossi Raz (peace activist), former B'tselem USA director Uri Zaki, Tel Aviv city councilwoman Gaby Laksy, and Ron Shavit, who I think is a journalist.

The most interesting names running for the second and third bracket are Jerusalem councilwoman Laura Wharton, former chief Rabbi of the Masorti movement Rabbi Ehud Bandel, and current New Israel Fund officer and Negev kibbutznik Avi Dabush.

EDIT: Here's the link-it's all in Hebrew unfortunately

Yeah the system is pretty weird (it's also gender balanceed, meaning every second spot is reserved for women). Why are only national convention members voting on the list? well back in the days the Kibbutz had an unbalanced power amongs members and this day the Tel Aviv branch has unbalanced power and this system assures a fairer race.

Well the very quick process (they local primaries and the national primaries are a week apart) forced  by the shock elections made  it very hard for new outside contenders to compete. None of them had a functioning election staff yet (part for Dabush).

There are no new "big" name. Zaki was umber 10 in 2013, Lasky ran in 2009. Vilan and Raz run every time (the joke is what ever spot Raz is Meretz get minus 2 mandates). Ron Shavit was a minor journalist. Nir Lahav is big in the cooperative movement, and Itai Svirsky is the leader of a new democratic workers' union Kock Laovdim - power to the workers). The rest are pretty mediocre local figures.

The downside of this process is the election are almost 60% pre-set by the 4-5 different groups of the convention.

Regarding the Likud I think it will be Ardan at #2 (generic and avoids conflicts) and than Katz (the opposite). Either way the interesting primaries will be that of the JH

[Hnv1]

Also interesting:
Meretz released the names of the 20 candidates who are running for a spot on the Meretz list (21 if you include Galon). Relatively few new names I don't see either Ben Reuven or Golan on the list (maybe hnv1 can elaborate). Meretz has a fairly odd system of voting where the 1000 members of the committee vote for three five member brackets: 2-6, 7-11, 12-16. There are ten people running for the first bracket: the MKs, former MKs Avshalom Vilan (kibbutznik) and Mossi Raz (peace activist), former B'tselem USA director Uri Zaki, Tel Aviv city councilwoman Gaby Laksy, and Ron Shavit, who I think is a journalist.

The most interesting names running for the second and third bracket are Jerusalem councilwoman Laura Wharton, former chief Rabbi of the Masorti movement Rabbi Ehud Bandel, and current New Israel Fund officer and Negev kibbutznik Avi Dabush.

EDIT: Here's the link-it's all in Hebrew unfortunately

Yeah the system is pretty weird (it's also gender balanceed, meaning every second spot is reserved for women). Why are only national convention members voting on the list? well back in the days the Kibbutz had an unbalanced power amongs members and this day the Tel Aviv branch has unbalanced power and this system assures a fairer race.

Well the very quick process (they local primaries and the national primaries are a week apart) forced  by the shock elections made  it very hard for new outside contenders to compete. None of them had a functioning election staff yet (part for Dabush).

There are no new "big" name. Zaki was umber 10 in 2013, Lasky ran in 2009. Vilan and Raz run every time (the joke is what ever spot Raz is Meretz get minus 2 mandates). Ron Shavit was a minor journalist. Nir Lahav is big in the cooperative movement, and Itai Svirsky is the leader of a new democratic workers' union Kock Laovdim - power to the workers). The rest are pretty mediocre local figures.

The downside of this process is the election are almost 60% pre-set by the 4-5 different groups of the convention.

Regarding the Likud I think it will be Ardan at #2 (generic and avoids conflicts) and than Katz (the opposite). Either way the interesting primaries will be that of the JH

What happened to Ben Reuven and Golan? Was there a problem with paperwork or something or did they back out? Also have you figured out how you will be voting for the first and second brackets?

Yep they backed off due to the short timescale I reckon.
Haven't fully set my mind yet but probabely Raz, Gilon, Zandberg, Freg will be in the first 5. On the second one I'm still undecided...

Yesterday was not the primaries for the party list but rather for electing representatives to the national convention. Primaries will be held in 2 weeks I think.

[Hnv1]

The Shas inner fighting is currently the best show in town. I fear that JH wil benefit the most out of it.

Corruption investigation is going forward with the governmental "settlement division" being raided by police

MK Adi Kol (Yesh Attid) announces she will not be seeking reelection
And suprisingly also MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz)

[Hnv1]

On one hand Bibi can paint this list as more centrist; on the other hand, it's very dull and boring. But considering Labour+Livni is going to be rather dull and centrist as well I think we'll finally have a head to head election between the parties again.

[Hnv1]

Final vote count for the national list:

position   candidate   votes   notes
1   Gilad Ardan   36287   
2   Yuli Edelsein   33900   
3   Yisrael Katz   33259   
4   Miri Regev   31090   
5   Silvan Shalom   28106   
6   Moshe Ye'elon   27096   
7   Ze'ev Elkin   24274   
8   Tzachi Hanegbi   23538   
9   Danny Dannon   22994   
10   Yariv Levin   22497   
11   Yuval Steinitz   22481   
12   Gila Gamliel   22381   
13   Ofir Akunis   21914   
14   Haim Katz   21074   
15   Avi Dichter   20085   
16   Tzipi Hotovely   19331   
17   Moshe Feiglin   13224   
18   Ayub Kara   13115   Moved up for being minority
19   Michael Ratzon   10286   
20   Idan Pinhas   9996   
21   Shevach Shtern   6973   
22   Avraham Nagusa   6801   Moved up for being new immigrant
23   Oren Hazan   5381   
24   Nava Boker   5276   Moved up for being new woman
25   Shai Malka   4511   
26   Miriam Heskel   3739   
27   Amir Veitman   3493   
28   Osnat Mark   3335   
29   Ayelet Galili   2995   
30   Patin Mula   2920   
31   Naftali Naor   2914   
32   Hassan Hayeb   2747   
33   Ayala Shtegman   1501   
34   Netanel Lipan   1336   
35   Ya'akov Keinan   1116   
36   Shimon Sharel   1110   
37   Jacki Pinto   939   
38   Silva Mizrahi   600   

shalom dany,

how did Moshe Feiglin get to number 17 on your list ?
and where did you get this final list from ?

It's sorted by the number of votes recieved not by final placement

[Hnv1]

MK Adi Kol (Yesh Attid) announces she will not be seeking reelection
And suprisingly also MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz)

Nooooooo!!!!  I loved that guy!  Any particular reason he bowed out?

official: exhausted after the Tel Aviv election
actual: failed to get his people elected to the national convention, might have been selected lower than 6, not that good of a relationship with Galon.

None the less an electoral blow. Now there's  an opening for a male to get selected in the top 6, going to be interesting

[Hnv1]

MK Adi Kol (Yesh Attid) announces she will not be seeking reelection
And suprisingly also MK Nitzan Horowitz (Meretz)

Nooooooo!!!!  I loved that guy!  Any particular reason he bowed out?

official: exhausted after the Tel Aviv election
actual: failed to get his people elected to the national convention, might have been selected lower than 6, not that good of a relationship with Galon.

None the less an electoral blow. Now there's  an opening for a male to get selected in the top 6, going to be interesting

Damn.  Any particular reason why the relationship between him and Gal-on was so bad?

By rumours, He thought she (meaning the party) didn't back him enough for the mayor run. And my assumption is she also feared he would try to run against her for leadership considering he's more popular with the general public