Maryland Governor 2014 - Would Hogan have Won In Almost Any Case?

[The_Doctor]

In assessing the Brown v. Hogan race for Governor, I did a little experiment. I wanted to see if realistically, the Democratic drop off accounted for the Hogan victory or if there was a deeper story?

I should preface this saying that a lot of the discussion in Maryland has centered on the drop off in the Democratic turnout, especially across the three reliably Democratic strongholds that make up a significant chunk of the Democratic vote here (Baltimore City, Montgomery County, and Prince George's County). So I decided to test that a little.

In 2014, Larry Hogan prevailed over Anthony Brown 51.03 to 47.25% (884,400 to 818,890). The three Democratic strongholds cast 615,633 votes in 2014. They went for Brown 72.77% to 25.72%. This is just background information.

First, I took Hogan's and Brown's totals (they are largely final numbers now) and then subtracted Montgomery County, Baltimore County, and Prince George's County's numbers. Not surprisingly, 56% of the Democratic votes in 2014 came from these counties, while only 18% of the Republican vote did. Hogan has 723,624 to Brown's 364,033, from these raw numbers, with these strongholds subtracted.

I then decided to substitute Martin O'Malley's and Robert Ehrlich's numbers in 2010 in these counties. Brown prevailed, under this arithmetic, 50.14-48.19% (900,008-864,961 votes; keeping third parties' numbers in 2014.) These three counties cast 677,312 votes between the two parties. O'Malley carried 78.08% of the vote against Bob Ehrlich's 20.59% in 2010.

Thirdly, I decided to leave O'Malley's numbers, in these counties, but this time keep Hogan's numbers in these counties. Hogan lost 49.61% to 48.75% (or a margin of some 13,600 votes). (900,008-884,400). Something interesting jumped out at me, as well. Hogan, in 2014, gained an extra 19,439 votes over Robert Ehrlich's 2010 performance in these counties. That's to say that he outperformed Ehrlich by roughly 19,500 votes in these three heavily Democratic counties. In this instance, among the Democratic strongholds, Brown would have beaten Hogan 75.93% to 22.78%.
 
How about using 2006 numbers for these counties, again O'Malley versus Ehrlich? Interestingly enough, under this composition, Hogan wins by an even larger margin than he did in 2014. Hogan wins 51.41% to 46.91% (912,763 to 832,941). The three counties cast 658,047 votes in 2006. O'Malley, surprisingly, prevailed by only 70.43% to 28.41% in here. (Only. But comparatively to 2010 and 2014, it was a dropoff).

Let's finally go all the way back to 2002. Simply substitute Kathleen Kennedy Townsend's and Bob Ehrlich's 2002 numbers, and Hogan defeats Brown 52.29% to 46.29% (or 921,335 to 815,606). These three Democratic jurisdictions voted Townsend 69.07-30.24%.

I'll note that overall turnout in 2002 was 1,706,179 votes, 2006 1,788,316, 2010 1,857,880, and in 2014 1,733,177.

My assessment is that most likely, in any scenario, Hogan would have beaten Brown. If you look at Hogan's performance in other counties, the logical rational belief is that Hogan would have likely performed much more strongly than Ehrlich did in 2010. It, in a sense, is probably a bad idea to blame Democratic turnout, when likely, Hogan's performance across the state would have ensured that he outperformed Ehrlich's margins in 2010.

The most rational analysis that Martin O'Malley turned a significant number of Maryland voters against his policies, and that directly benefited Larry Hogan. O'Malley's approval rating in October was a dismal 40%. It makes sense to say that Marylanders disapproved of O'Malley and voted accordingly.

Given this analysis, and Hogan's performance in other parts of the state (66% in Anne Arundel's, 59% in Baltimore County, which vastly surpassed Ehrlich's 2006 and 2010 numbers, even accounting for Democratic votes not being cast), it's logical to put it simply. The incumbent Democratic Party was repudiated on the basis of its policies and specifically the Martin O'Malley Administration. The numbers strongly suggest that Marylanders not only actively refused to vote for the Democratic candidate but actively supported the Republican candidate.*

If that's the case, it would be interesting to see how the mood in Annapolis in the next four years goes.

*It's to be mentioned Hogan spent three years as the head of an anti-O'Malley advocacy group prior to his election as Governor. 

[warandwar]

I disagree with most of this. A few questions:
What about heavily Democratic areas elsewhere (Charles County, parts of BalCo and HoCo)?
What about O'malley's policies changed from 2010-4 that would make his legacy less popular (recall O'Malley wasn't very popular in 2010, either)?
You're point is that Hogan outperformed Ehrlich. That's true, but that doesn't explain him beating Brown. Brown lost by underperforming O'Malley. Why did he do that? That has to do with his own campaign, not Hogan's, and not O'Malley's policies. It's my belief that O'Malley would have won reelection if he was able to run again this year.

[The_Doctor]

I disagree with most of this. A few questions:
What about heavily Democratic areas elsewhere (Charles County, parts of BalCo and HoCo)?
What about O'malley's policies changed from 2010-4 that would make his legacy less popular (recall O'Malley wasn't very popular in 2010, either)?
You're point is that Hogan outperformed Ehrlich. That's true, but that doesn't explain him beating Brown. Brown lost by underperforming O'Malley. Why did he do that? That has to do with his own campaign, not Hogan's, and not O'Malley's policies. It's my belief that O'Malley would have won reelection if he was able to run again this year.

1. The Democratic areas in this state are largely Baltimore City, Montgomery County, and Prince George County. I would qualify Democratic areas as areas that would go heavily Democratic, no matter what. Charles County went 51-46% for Brown in this election; making it more of a swing county, rather than Democratic. Ehrlich carried Charles County 56-43% in 2002, while O'Malley carried it 51-47% in 2006. Howard County was carried by Hogan 51-46% and Ehrlich won 55-44% there in 2002. (I should do a comparison of Ehrlich 2002 v. Hogan 2014 to see how the state has changed in 12 years, but that's another post)

I can't see how you would label them Democratic counties, when Republicans have carried them in close races or been competitive in (again) close races.   

2. Martin O'Malley's approval ratings in 2010 was above water. I believe he was significantly better in his approval ratings than in 2014. The Washington Post, Rasmussen, and Gonzalez gave him approval ratings of 59%, 54%, and 48%. All of them had more approving than disapproving. He wasn't as unpopular as he is now. And his first term saw his unpopularity go up after the tax hikes in 2008. But it receded, obviously, and he won a second term.

2a. I would argue the gas tax hike, the botched health care roll out in Maryland, a sales tax hike in 2013, and a number of other controversial items. There's also the fact that everyone knows he's trying to run for President, which has weighed him down. The rain tax was a huge deal in this election and touted heavily by the Republicans, as well as the talk about the 40 tax hikes (a central theme by Hogan).

3. Brown certainly ran a less than strong campaign. But Brown also outspent Hogan 3:1 and still lost. The attacks on Hogan centered around him being socially conservative (true but immaterial, as Hogan promised to uphold most of the state's liberal policies socially). But more than that, I think Brown would have eked it out if Marylanders didn't disapprove of Martin O'Malley to the levels they did. An October 2014 poll showed him being approved by just 40% of the state.

My belief is that O'Malley weighed Brown down and Hogan won votes from disaffected Marylanders, who wanted a change in the policies in the state house. I think the evidence supports that to a degree.

[henster]

Brown was too close to O'Malley and was directly involved in the failure of healthcare exchange. Where Gansler, Mizeur, Delaney weren't it was fairly easy to paint Brown as O'Malley 2.0 other potential candidates not so much.

[warandwar]

I disagree with most of this. A few questions:
What about heavily Democratic areas elsewhere (Charles County, parts of BalCo and HoCo)?
What about O'malley's policies changed from 2010-4 that would make his legacy less popular (recall O'Malley wasn't very popular in 2010, either)?
You're point is that Hogan outperformed Ehrlich. That's true, but that doesn't explain him beating Brown. Brown lost by underperforming O'Malley. Why did he do that? That has to do with his own campaign, not Hogan's, and not O'Malley's policies. It's my belief that O'Malley would have won reelection if he was able to run again this year.

1. The Democratic areas in this state are largely Baltimore City, Montgomery County, and Prince George County. I would qualify Democratic areas as areas that would go heavily Democratic, no matter what. Charles County went 51-46% for Brown in this election; making it more of a swing county, rather than Democratic. Ehrlich carried Charles County 56-43% in 2002, while O'Malley carried it 51-47% in 2006. Howard County was carried by Hogan 51-46% and Ehrlich won 55-44% there in 2002. (I should do a comparison of Ehrlich 2002 v. Hogan 2014 to see how the state has changed in 12 years, but that's another post)

I can't see how you would label them Democratic counties, when Republicans have carried them in close races or been competitive in (again) close races.   

2. Martin O'Malley's approval ratings in 2010 was above water. I believe he was significantly better in his approval ratings than in 2014. The Washington Post, Rasmussen, and Gonzalez gave him approval ratings of 59%, 54%, and 48%. All of them had more approving than disapproving. He wasn't as unpopular as he is now. And his first term saw his unpopularity go up after the tax hikes in 2008. But it receded, obviously, and he won a second term.

2a. I would argue the gas tax hike, the botched health care roll out in Maryland, a sales tax hike in 2013, and a number of other controversial items. There's also the fact that everyone knows he's trying to run for President, which has weighed him down. The rain tax was a huge deal in this election and touted heavily by the Republicans, as well as the talk about the 40 tax hikes (a central theme by Hogan).

3. Brown certainly ran a less than strong campaign. But Brown also outspent Hogan 3:1 and still lost. The attacks on Hogan centered around him being socially conservative (true but immaterial, as Hogan promised to uphold most of the state's liberal policies socially). But more than that, I think Brown would have eked it out if Marylanders didn't disapprove of Martin O'Malley to the levels they did. An October 2014 poll showed him being approved by just 40% of the state.

My belief is that O'Malley weighed Brown down and Hogan won votes from disaffected Marylanders, who wanted a change in the policies in the state house. I think the evidence supports that to a degree.

1: Ah! Charles was a swingish county in 2002, but it was also 68.5% white! (from 2000 actually, but you get my point). The percentage now is 49.1% white (black middle class migration from PG and DC) and O'Malley got 61.3% in 2010.
As for BalCo and HoCo, remember I said parts. In Howard, for example, the west is heavily Republican, Ellicott City and the Route 1 Corridor are swingy, while Columbia (my hometown) is strongly Democratic.
2: Sales tax was raised in O'Malley's first term.
 I don't think the stormwater management fee and the "40 taxes" were as big a deal as you think they are. Ehrlich endlessly harped about taxes in 2010, and it got him nowhere. It is more about the style of the campaign. (This post from The Seventh State goes into it, though he disagrees with me about turnout)

[Vega]

I feel like people really overestimate O'Malley's popularity.

[warandwar]

I feel like people really overestimate O'Malley's popularity.

Like who?

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Excellent analysis.

[The_Doctor]

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1. That's true, but it was still highly swingy in 2014, no? I didn't go into detail into the counties, although your point could be why in Howard, Hogan underperformed Ehrlich 2002. I agree that population trends may have weakened Hogan in some areas but I still feel that no matter, he was an extremely strong Republican because of the O'Malley era. Which leads us to point 2.

2: I agree and I disagree. I think Ehrlich got in too late and O'Malley was still popular enough to take the win. As I said, his approval ratings were significantly better than they were in 2014. I think the fallout from these taxes and the narrative that O'Malley was simply trying to use the state to advance his Presidential prospects really hurt Brown more than anything. If O'Malley had been more popular, Brown would have won, in my view.

I'd like to ask a question. Why do you feel that O'Malley wasn't a weight on Brown enough for Brown to lose?