Portman says no to presidential race

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/rob-portman-2016-presidential-race/story?id=27296268

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[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The Republicans weren't going to nominate a gay marriage supporter in 2016.

[IceSpear]

Not surprising. He knows he'd have no chance in the primary due to his gay marriage position, and he's young enough to bide his time.

However, I wonder if this could also suggest Kasich is more serious about running than previously thought.

[retromike22]

I can see him running in 2020 or 2024. He's still young.

[BaconBacon96]

I can see him running in 2020 or 2024. He's still young.

He's not too young. He's 59 this December. I do definitely think he's setting himself up for a 2020 run.

[LeBron]

Knew it all along. Portman was never going to run. With Kasich's strong grip on the Ohio GOP, he probably convinced Portman to stay out of the Presidential (so Kasich could pursue his own run) in return for the state party's establishment support of Portman for re-election. That and Portman would be hopeless in a primary. His support for gay rights, immigration reform, his willingness to compromise with Democrats, and his extreme hatred by the Tea Party all do him in.

Portman will certainly face a few right-wing challengers in his re-election bid, but to a lesser extent and for different reasons. The far-right in the state are upset with him not focusing enough on Ohio and his out-of-state fundraising for other Republicans, but he can easily survive a state primary fight. Strickland and Ryan will definitely be discouraged to run now and most other Democrats in our field just aren't ready to run statewide yet or may not be strong enough to beat Portman. Nonetheless, Portman made the right decision for his political future. He'll be in the minority caucus again come 2017, but he has a much better chance at retaining his Senate seat now.

[Ljube]

Knew it all along. Portman was never going to run. With Kasich's strong grip on the Ohio GOP, he probably convinced Portman to stay out of the Presidential (so Kasich could pursue his own run) in return for the state party's establishment support of Portman for re-election. That and Portman would be hopeless in a primary. His support for gay rights, immigration reform, his willingness to compromise with Democrats, and his extreme hatred by the Tea Party all do him in.

Portman will certainly face a few right-wing challengers in his re-election bid, but to a lesser extent and for different reasons. The far-right in the state are upset with him not focusing enough on Ohio and his out-of-state fundraising for other Republicans, but he can easily survive a state primary fight. Strickland and Ryan will definitely be discouraged to run now and most other Democrats in our field just aren't ready to run statewide yet or may not be strong enough to beat Portman. Nonetheless, Portman made the right decision for his political future. He'll be in the minority caucus again come 2017, but he has a much better chance at retaining his Senate seat now.

Why would he be in the minority caucus come 2017?
There is no guarantee that the Democrats will win back the Senate and the best odds of that happening are about 50%.

However, Portman not running indicates that there is going to be a coordinated effort by the establishment candidates to have one establishment candidate remaining before South Carolina, so that he could win that primary and effectively seal the deal on Super Tuesday.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Kasich is in than?

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich is in than?

Kasich's never sounded super enthusiastic about a run, so I think there's a good chance that he passes on a run as well.  In September, he said:

Kasich sounds uninterested in another presidential run:

http://www.vindy.com/news/2014/sep/19/is-kasich-eyeing--presidential-contest/

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Though he hasn't completely ruled it out:

http://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2014/11/john_kasich_for_president_he_o.html

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[Bull Moose Base]

Time to enjoy this 3 week old declaration that Portman was the #1 most likely person to be elected president in 2016.

1. Rob Portman
2. Scott Walker
3. Hillary Clinton

If Portman was cleared out by anyone beside himself, it was Bush.

[Suburbia]

He'll be the top on the GOP veep list next to Thune and maybe Martinez. Safe, Midwestern guy. Won't embarrass the GOP nor the country if elected VP. If the GOP field is crappy by summer or fall of 2015, with no Bush, Romney, Walker, Pence, Rubio, Ryan, expect Rove and Co. to pressure him to run.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Time to enjoy this 3 week old declaration that Portman was the #1 most likely person to be elected president in 2016.

1. Rob Portman
2. Scott Walker
3. Hillary Clinton

If Portman was cleared out by anyone beside himself, it was Bush.

I maintain that Portman would've won had he run.  I stand by that part of my prediction and given that Portman was acting very much like someone gearing up to run, this was hardly a dumb prediction knowing what we knew when I made that post.  "Most likely" is different than "Rob Portman will definitely be elected President in 2016."  Bush will go down in either the primaries or the general if he runs (my money's on the former, but we'll see).

[Flake]

When did Kasich run for president?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

When did Kasich run for president?

2000 and if he runs this time, he'll do about as well as he did then

[The_Doctor]

Can he run for re-election and vice president at the same time? What's Ohio's law on that?

[LeBron]

Can he run for re-election and vice president at the same time? What's Ohio's law on that?

Ohio law allows you to run for two federal offices simultaneously, but Portman already said to reporters he's "truly not interested" in even accepting a VP spot. I mean he might change his mind if Jeb Bush gets nominated, but I personally don't think Bush can win the primary.

Portman needs to be worried about re-election anyways because now Ohio Democrats have time to strategize and prepare their candidate for Portman.

He's favored in a primary and general for re-election, but not guaranteed and being the VP pick would only hurt his re-election chances with the problem of the lack of campaign time he would have to spend in Ohio.

[ShadowRocket]

I never thought he had much of a shot anyway. Portman is more VP material, but since he'll be running for reelection and probably facing an at least somewhat competitive race, that may not be that likely this time around.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously, the G O P is worried about OHIO, since he is announcing his plans already.  With Jeb's ridiculous argument about the G O P, today, I am assuming that OHIO is gonna slip back to the Dems in 2016 and eventually in 2018, when Sherrod Brown is up and Kasich is term limited out.

Hillary is already leading in this state, and this along with VA may not be winnable for the G O P, this time around either.

RIP Jeb in OH.

[CountryClassSF]

Smart move. We must nominate a conservative this time.

[The_Doctor]

OK so Portman can be VP and still run for re-election. If we won the election, then Governor Kasich would appoint a replacement to serve the remainder of Portman's term? Or would it just be two years and then a special to determine the remaining four?

[IceSpear]

Smart move. We must nominate a conservative this time.

How is he not a conservative? Because he disagrees with you on a single issue?

[TJ in Oregon]

Good, Kasich is a better choice anyway.

[Consciously Unconscious]

Smart move. We must nominate a conservative this time.

While I respect your opinion, it still kind of dumbfounds me that a gay guy could oppose marriage equality.

[KCDem]

Smart move. We must nominate a conservative this time.

While I respect your opinion, it still kind of dumbfounds me that a gay guy could oppose marriage equality.

Hehehehe...you have your answer...

[Bull Moose Base]

Time to enjoy this 3 week old declaration that Portman was the #1 most likely person to be elected president in 2016.

1. Rob Portman
2. Scott Walker
3. Hillary Clinton

If Portman was cleared out by anyone beside himself, it was Bush.

I maintain that Portman would've won had he run.  I stand by that part of my prediction and given that Portman was acting very much like someone gearing up to run, this was hardly a dumb prediction knowing what we knew when I made that post.  "Most likely" is different than "Rob Portman will definitely be elected President in 2016."  Bush will go down in either the primaries or the general if he runs (my money's on the former, but we'll see).

Just razzing you. All are invited to give me the same treatment when the chance presents itself!