(Sweden) THIS ELECTION has been CANCELLED. Next departure in 2018.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30306992

Enjoy the chaos.

[Lurker]

Damn, I posted a thread literally seconds after this one.

I suppose this year must have been like heaven for political junkies in Sweden.

[You kip if you want to...]

Good god.

[politicus]

Damn, I posted a thread literally seconds after this one.

I suppose this year must have been like heaven for political junkies in Sweden.

Its only fair that the Sweden thread is created by a Swede (or Scanian..).

Its an awful long campaign, who is that most likely to benefit? I guess the centre-right has the most cash, but SAP is probably better funded than most SD parties.

[politicus]

Just checked the election calendar, it turns out this Riksdag thing will collide with the very exciting and totally wide open presidential election in Uzbekistan! Very inconsiderate...

[Lurker]

I wonder what they will do if the result is status quo  - i.e. Red-Green Bloc larger than Alliance, but Sweden Democrats holding balance of power again. Suppose they can't call another early election.

This will be the first such election in 57 years - really saying something about how dramatic this is. Feeling slightly bitter that Norway is the only country in Europe (I've heard) where an early election is constitutionally impossible...  

[politicus]

I wonder what they will do if the result is status quo  - i.e. Red-Green Bloc larger than Alliance, but Sweden Democrats holding balance of power again. Suppose they can't call another early election.

The Swedish pols would be under hard pressure to try a Grand Coalition if the outcome is status quo.

This will be the first such election in 57 years - really saying something about how dramatic this is. Feeling slightly bitter that Norway is the only country in Europe (I've heard) where an early election is constitutionally impossible...

I believe you share that honour with Moldova, but it's a shame you can't join the Sweden Finland, Denmark, Åland, Faroe Islands 2015 elections bonanza.

[jaichind]

I tend to think that SD will get hurt by in the election and lose support for acting in a way that led to this crisis. 

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, I already had a feeling that this minority government would have a tough time and eventually w/could collapse (just not this early).

[YL]

I tend to think that SD will get hurt by in the election and lose support for acting in a way that led to this crisis. 

We can but hope.

[EPG]

Help me understand, why would an anti-system party be punished for bringing down a government? I do not see it.

They might punish Alliance parties, if they like the current government, but I guess they would have to be Alliance voters who prefer left-wing policies, if there are many of those.

It strikes me as an outsider that the gap between the government and the Alliance is not so big that centrists looking for stability would feel the need to switch to the government.

[Tender Branson]

Antonio summed it up perfectly in the other thread:

God, this is gonna be a trainwreck.

[Famous Mortimer]

Can't really blame a duck for being a duck. It was wishful thinking to ever imagine the Swedish Democrats were going to drop up a centre-left government.

[Talleyrand]

Will Reinfeldt be leading the Moderates in this election?

[Phony Moderate]

In answer to the OP - the miners, obviously.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Will Reinfeldt be leading the Moderates in this election?

Nope, Anna Kinberg Batra will be elected as their new leader in January, and she has already unofficially taken over after Reinfeldt.

[politicus]

Will Reinfeldt be leading the Moderates in this election?

Nope, Anna Kinberg Batra will be elected as their new leader in January, and she has already unofficially taken over after Reinfeldt.

Her background sounds upper class/upper middle class. Is that going to be a problem? How posh is she?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What exactly was so contentious about the budget?

[rob in cal]

I wonder what would have happened had the Social Democrats and Green coalition given the Democrats a little of what they wanted on asylum.  Say a partial reduction of overall numbers, maybe not as much as the Democrats wanted, but enough for the Democrats to say to their people that they accomplished something by voting Democrat.  Plus, one would think that among the Green and Social Democrat electorate there would be some who would also support a reduction.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Will Reinfeldt be leading the Moderates in this election?

Nope, Anna Kinberg Batra will be elected as their new leader in January, and she has already unofficially taken over after Reinfeldt.

Her background sounds upper class/upper middle class. Is that going to be a problem? How posh is she?

Well lets just put it like this, when she first ran for parliament she uttered these infamous words while  being interviewed: "People from Stockholm are, in my opinion, smarter than country hicks." (Loose translation)

...So yeah!

Anyway nowadays she's married to folksy and popular comedian David Batra. So at least she has that.

[Diouf]

I wonder what would have happened had the Social Democrats and Green coalition given the Democrats a little of what they wanted on asylum.  Say a partial reduction of overall numbers, maybe not as much as the Democrats wanted, but enough for the Democrats to say to their people that they accomplished something by voting Democrat.  Plus, one would think that among the Green and Social Democrat electorate there would be some who would also support a reduction.

Indeed, especially among the Social Democrat voters. In 2013, 40% of the Social Democrat voters and 21% of Green voters thought that it was a good or very good idea to take less refugees into Sweden. The number among all voters is 44%.
But while the Social-Democrats might be able to satisfy a significant part of their voters by agreeing to cut immigrant and refugee numbers, it will very difficult for them to act if they were to do so. First of all, there would still not, at least in the short term, be a majority for reducing immigration, and it would make it very hard for them to work with the other left wing parties, the Green and the Left Party voters are those most in favour of immigration.

The numbers also show that the point for the Sweden Democrats is not so much to convince people that the immigrants and refugee numbers are too high, but to activate the quite significant amount of voters with that attitude in the other parties, what the Sweden Democrats have referred to several times in recent days as the "silent majority". They simply need to get that question as high up the agenda as possible.

http://www.som.gu.se/digitalAssets/1487/1487702_071-082-sandberg-o-demker.pdf

[Diouf]

Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter:

Share of voters who believe they will vote for the same party in the new election

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not looking good for the Christian Democrats, who only just passed the threshold at the last election. Perhaps many of their loan voters from last time is considering to change their vote this time. The same is to a lesser extent true for the (Liberal) People's Party. The threshold is 4%, KD got 4.57% and FP 5.42% at the last election.

The article doesn't provide numbers for all the parties, but it says that the Sweden Democrats is the party with the biggest potential to increase its share of the votes. 3/10 of the Allianse voters who consider changing party, is considering to vote for SD, while the same is the case for 2/10 of the red-green voters who consider changing their vote.

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/kd-ligger-samst-till-infor-nyvalet/

[Lurker]

Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter:

Share of voters who believe they will vote for the same party in the new election

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not looking good for the Christian Democrats, who only just passed the threshold at the last election. Perhaps many of their loan voters from last time is considering to change their vote this time. The same is to a lesser extent true for the (Liberal) People's Party. The threshold is 4%, KD got 4.57% and FP 5.42% at the last election.

The article doesn't provide numbers for all the parties, but it says that the Sweden Democrats is the party with the biggest potential to increase its share of the votes. 3/10 of the Allianse voters who consider changing party, is considering to vote for SD, while the same is the case for 2/10 of the red-green voters who consider changing their vote.

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/kd-ligger-samst-till-infor-nyvalet/

I would be shocked if either of the Alliance parties did not cross the treshold. If they hover around it, they are always "saved" by supporters of the other three parties.

[ingemann]

What surprise me the most is how mindblowing stupid the old parties have been. I personal think it's the other parties full right, not wanting to deal with SD, but it should demand one of these three things.

1: A grand coalition, German style.
2: A centre right government which SD wouldn't topple.
3: A grand agreement, that the anti-SD parties would vote in favour of what a majority among anti-SD parties agreed to do, even if they made up a minority of MPs in the Swedish parliament.

Of course I expect the Swedes to have learnt nothing from this mess.

[politicus]

Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter:

Share of voters who believe they will vote for the same party in the new election

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not looking good for the Christian Democrats, who only just passed the threshold at the last election. Perhaps many of their loan voters from last time is considering to change their vote this time. The same is to a lesser extent true for the (Liberal) People's Party. The threshold is 4%, KD got 4.57% and FP 5.42% at the last election.

The article doesn't provide numbers for all the parties, but it says that the Sweden Democrats is the party with the biggest potential to increase its share of the votes. 3/10 of the Alliance voters who consider changing party, is considering to vote for SD, while the same is the case for 2/10 of the red-green voters who consider changing their vote.

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/kd-ligger-samst-till-infor-nyvalet/

I would be shocked if either of the Alliance parties did not cross the threshold. If they hover around it, they are always "saved" by supporters of the other three parties.

This may not hold if two of them are in trouble at the same time. If we are looking at a big swing to SD, as the numbers Diouf posted suggest, we could be in uncharted territory.