(Sweden) THIS ELECTION has been CANCELLED. Next departure in 2018.

[Nortexius]

Latest Yougov poll (first after the new elections called) shows the Sweden Democrats on 17,7%.

S  29,6 (+0,1)
MP  6,9 (-1,1)
V   4,7 (-2,1)
FI 2,5 (-2,5)

RedGreen bloc: 41,2

M  23,1 (+1,9)
C   5,7 (-0,7)
FP  5,0 (-1,2)
KD  4,2 (-1,6)

Alliance bloc: 38,0

SD 17,7 (+6,6)

[Nortexius]

Thank you!

[Nortexius]

If you put together the most recent polls from Demoskop, Yougov, Sentio and Sverigetycker/Inizio you get this result:

V - 5,1%
S - 29,4%
MP- 7,0%

Government + supporters = 41,5%

M - 25,2%
C - 6,2%
FP - 4,8%
KD - 4,1%

Alliance = 40,3%

SD -15,7%

Others (including FI) - 2,6%

The liberal FP seems to be going the same way as the german FDP while the Center Party under the leadership of Annie Lööf have a strong momentum. C and M will be the winners in the Alliance while KD and FP will be lucky to remain above the 4% threshold. The numbers for the greens seem to be stable but my guess is that a lot of voters from V, MP and FI will be wandering of to S soon. SD will be the big winners of this election so their gamble with voting down the governments budget seems to have paid of for now.

[Nortexius]

No Alliance party is willing to break the Alliance in it's current form. Hypothetically FP could choose Birgitta Olsson as party leader and move more to the left or KD could choose Ebba Busch Thor and move in a more conservative direction (and thereby get a whole lot more support in the polls) but the thing is any breakup of the Alliance would basically mean a chance for the Social Democrats to reestablish the political hegemony over Sweden that they have had for the last 30-40 years.  Nobody in the blue bloc wants to be responsible for giving the Social Democrats that position again which is why you've seen Annie Lööf and co in the Center Party rejecting all forms of cooperation with Löfven. If the Center Party or the Liberals agree to cooperate with the Social Democrats in any issue without the rest of the Alliance being in on the deal it would basically undo these last 8 years of non-socialist rule.

[Nortexius]

First poll done by phone since new elections declared confirms my theory that Greens, leftists and feminists are flocking to the Social Democrats for a more stable government. SDs increase in Yougov and Sentio seems to be confirmed by Novus while Liberal FP (ALDE) and Christian Democrats (EPP) are in danger of losing representation in parliament by missing the 4% threshold for parliamentary seats. A result giving only 2 Alliance parties parliamentary representation would send shockwaves through Swedens political system.

Novus December (Comparison to last election results):

S: 32,0 (+1,0)
MP: 6,0 (-0,9)
V: 5,3 (-0,4)

Redgreens: 43,3 (-0,3)

M: 23,7 (+0,4)
FP: 4,3 (-1,1)
C: 6,6 (+0,5)
KD: 3,9 (-0,7)

Alliance: 38,5 (-0,9)

SD: 16,0 (+3,1)

Others: 2,8 (-1,9)

[Nortexius]

What Björn Söder was actually saying was that SD has 3 definitions of being "swedish":

1: A person with swedish citizenship which anyone in the world can acquire just by getting a residence permit and living in Sweden for 5 years. A somali who barely speaks any Swedish and considers Swedish culture, norms and values to be alien would be under this category.

2. Being a person with ethnic Swedish background

3. Being a culturally Swedish person (A non-ethic Swede who has assimilated into swedish society) and left behind the culture of his homeland to fully embrace the swedish language, culture, values and cultural norms.

The Sweden Democrats goal is to strongly decrease the 1st category by stopping immigration from nonwestern countries, encourage immigrants to assimilate into swedish society, offering incentives for non-assimilated swedish citizens to go back to their homelands and strongly discourage multicultural policies.

According to Björn Söder Swedens 5 historical minorities (jews,sami, swedish roma, finns, tornedal finns) would be exempt from demands for assimilation and would be allowed to keep their culture and heritage.

All of this of course has not been discussed at all in Sweden, instead most of the discussion has been around the fact that the liberal newspaper Dagens Nyheter has twisted Björn Söders statement so that people think that the main jist of his argument is that Jews and Sami aren't swedes (and therefore not good people) when the actual main point of his argument was the fact that immigrants needed to start to conform more to swedish society. So most of the discussion for the last 2 days has been about the fact that Björn Söder is an evil nazi who hates jews and sami.

[Nortexius]

Some people have asked me i think the greens will decrease in this election and here's my theory:


My main argument why MP (The Greens) will probably go back in the elections is because a lot of the problems the Löfven-government have been having in government is because the Greens have had a very disproportional amount of power. The Greens have been demanding the closure of nuclear power plants, Bromma airport, new building of a very important motorway in Stockholm (förbifart Stockholm) and have blocked any attempt by the Social Democrats to limit labour migration which the unions have wanted for a long time. There have been a lot of scandals surrounding Green ministers such as Åsa Romson painting her boat with poisonous paint, Mehmet Kaplan comparing swedish ISIS-fighters to Swedes who volunteered to defend Finland against the soviets during WW2 and so on.

Charismatic former Social Democrat prime minister Göran Persson was interviewed in a lengthy interview on SVT where he destroyed the Greens completely and called their policies "pubescent trophy politics" and said that the problem with trophy politics is that it can easily be conquered by opponents and that the Greens were dragging his party down. The Greens are usually overrepresented in polls and if you combine that with the fact that a lot of the next election will probably be about who is most competent to govern in such a precarious situation i see realistic green voters migrating to the party most capable of governing within the red bloc.

Early signs of this phenomena can already be seen in the recent Novus-poll. The Greens unlike the Social Democrats are not a rich party who have support from the unions. A second election so close to the last one will deplete their coffers completely and if you combine that with the loss of idealism and anti-establishment credentials that comes from being a government party, things are not looking bright for the Swedish greens.

[Nortexius]

Charismatic former Social Democrat prime minister Göran Persson

LOL

Don't deny your love for Göran!

[Nortexius]

Charismatic former Social Democrat prime minister Göran Persson

LOL

Don't deny your love for Göran!

He may be charismatic for Swedes, but it really doesn't translate well, at least not into Danish.

Göran has a way of dominating the conversation completely without raising his voice, he has massive amounts of confidence bordering on arrogance which some people might find off-putting but i personally find very reassuring.

[Nortexius]

Ipsos chef opinion analyst admitted in DNs article about their poll that they hadn't changed their polling methods since the last elections to compensate for the underestimation of SD as Yougov and Novus have. No serious person can believe that SD has had 12,5% support 3 months in a row as Ipsos claims.