(Sweden) THIS ELECTION has been CANCELLED. Next departure in 2018.

[ingemann]

What surprise me the most is how mindblowing stupid the old parties have been. I personal think it's the other parties full right, not wanting to deal with SD, but it should demand one of these three things.

1: A grand coalition, German style.
2: A centre right government which SD wouldn't topple.
3: A grand agreement, that the anti-SD parties would vote in favour of what a majority among anti-SD parties agreed to do, even if they made up a minority of MPs in the Swedish parliament.

Of course I expect the Swedes to have learnt nothing from this mess.

[ingemann]

Ipsos for Dagens Nyheter:

Share of voters who believe they will vote for the same party in the new election

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Not looking good for the Christian Democrats, who only just passed the threshold at the last election. Perhaps many of their loan voters from last time is considering to change their vote this time. The same is to a lesser extent true for the (Liberal) People's Party. The threshold is 4%, KD got 4.57% and FP 5.42% at the last election.

The article doesn't provide numbers for all the parties, but it says that the Sweden Democrats is the party with the biggest potential to increase its share of the votes. 3/10 of the Alliance voters who consider changing party, is considering to vote for SD, while the same is the case for 2/10 of the red-green voters who consider changing their vote.

http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/kd-ligger-samst-till-infor-nyvalet/

I would be shocked if either of the Alliance parties did not cross the threshold. If they hover around it, they are always "saved" by supporters of the other three parties.

This may not hold if two of them are in trouble at the same time. If we are looking at a big swing to SD, as the numbers Diouf posted suggest, we could be in uncharted territory.

I doubt it will happen, though if SD significantly increases its vote share then there is a chance, yes. Though I wonder what SD's ceiling is - I would have thought (or hoped) that they're pretty close to it by now. They've already almost polled as well as DF's best Folketing result, and DF doesn't have the baggage of SD.

I think the fact that 44% say that Sweden should take less refugees, and no one else seem to represent them in any way, indicate that SD have a potential very high ceiling, I don't think they have a 44% ceiling, but there is a lot of room to grow in between that and their last result.

[ingemann]

To elaborate a bit:

The leader of the Moderates in Scania has been positive towards cooperation with SD, but Scania is more anti-immigration than the rest of Sweden. There are apparently a handfull of Moderate MPs that are privately positive about it (when asked anonymously), but it is still a very marginal position and there is no reason to believe this will change in the near future (though it may in the long run if SD remains a factor).

I have a really hard time seeing SD stop being a factor, even if the party self destruct in some incredible way, a new party will just rise and replace it. There are a significant segment of the Swedish population who are unhappy with the Swedish immigration policy and the immigrants in Sweden. That will not just disappear. 

[ingemann]

Just an interesting realization that if in the case the Moderate Party did form government again would mean that Denmark, Norway and Sweden would all have a female as their Prime Minister.

Yes it's time that Sweden end their hostility toward women and join the other Scandinavian countries in the 21th century.

[ingemann]

In Finland Finländare means the all people living in Finland and Finska meaning Finnish-speaking Finns. I thought you would have plethora of words explaining complicated relationship between subject and Queen. How you call people in realm of Danmark (Greenland, Holstein, Virgin Island etc.)

There isn't and has never been a common name for neither the subjects of the old Oldenburg conglomerate monarchy, nor the modern Community of the Realm.

Generally subjects of conglomerate states didn't have common names, there were no Habsburgians etc.

That's basicly correct, but it was a little more complex, while it was said that Denmark-Norway was made up of three nations; Danes, Holsteiner and Norwegian (include Icelanders, Faroese and Greenlanders, the last because people at the time believed they was descendent of the lost Norse settlers, they had changed colour because they had become pagans ). Sometimes they instead talked about two different ethnic groups Nordics and Germans.

But at the same time the term Danes was developing into a catch all for all the European subjects of the Oldenburg possessions. Of course the rise of German nationalism in Holstein in the 1820-30ties slowed down that process, but it was only after 1864, that Danish really took its modern national-ethnic character. If Denmark had survived as a multi-ethnic Danish-German state, we would likely talk about Dano-Germans and Dano-Scandinavians today, to distinct between the two groups.

[ingemann]

Charismatic former Social Democrat prime minister Göran Persson

LOL

Don't deny your love for Göran!

He may be charismatic for Swedes, but it really doesn't translate well, at least not into Danish.

[ingemann]

Well it doesn't make a big difference, SD will continue to grow and it's interesting to see when it reach the size, where they can't be ignored anymore.