How realistic is this map?

[Devils30]

Democrats win 289-249

Swing:

Trend:

[Mehmentum]

Looks like a Walker v. Clinton map to me.  Its plausible, though I have my doubts about Florida when she's loosing Wisconsin.

[Lief 🗽]

This map looks like 2014 racial breakdowns with 2012 racial turnout.

[Devils30]

The thing is that Florida's electorate is only going to be 63-64% white in 2016. The difference between it being 67% white in 2012 and 69% this year was what sunk Crist. Hillary might just get enough transplants and benefit from a growing Hispanic vote.

[KCDem]

South Dakota will not go more Republican than North Dakota.

[DS0816]

Re: How realistic is this map?

It's not.

[Devils30]

But it is, it really only takes a fairly even popular vote nationally (think inside 1%). States like Iowa, Wisconsin trending 3-4% to the right while Florida trends 3-4% to the left.

[Devils30]

Looks like a Walker v. Clinton map to me.  Its plausible, though I have my doubts about Florida when she's loosing Wisconsin.

Believe or not, the Governor's election was a good generic R vs generic D test in Florida because both of them were such awful candidates! But the electorate's difference from 2012 was what won it for the GOP. 2016 will be around 64% white and the GOP needs to hold Dems under the 37% whites Obama and Crist got.

[DS0816]

But it is, it really only takes a fairly even popular vote nationally (think inside 1%). States like Iowa, Wisconsin trending 3-4% to the right while Florida trends 3-4% to the left.

No.

[Devils30]

The 2000 map didn't remain static, it changed little for 2004 but a lot of states moved around relatives to the national vote in 2008. I don't see why everyone expects the current map to remain static. If anything the midterms suggested Dems will be stronger in VA, FL, NC with presidential turnout and could fall off much worse in IA, WI.

[Ljube]

The map is realistic (Clinton v. Walker) and the election is going to be decided in Florida.

[Devils30]

Obama's approval was 44% with the midterm electorate and I would have to guess 46-48% with a general election crowd. Not good but might be enough to make things more neutral like 2000, 1960 rather than 2008.

[Ljube]

I think the next election will be very much like 2000, including Florida results.

[Mehmentum]

The map is realistic (Clinton v. Walker) and the election is going to be decided in Florida.

If so, God help us all.

[Never]

This map looks like a very realistic portrayal of Walker vs. Clinton, but if this is a map in which the Republican is not from Wisconsin, I think Clinton would mangage to hold that state by a point or two.

[Devils30]

I agree and think she can hold Colorado as well. With Presidential turnout Dems would have won CO, NC senate races, FL Governor and VA Senate by much more. GOP does have room to grow in IA, OH and throughout the midwest.