Would Landrieu have lost in '08 if....

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Hi, I'm new to the forum and I know I've only posted about the Louisiana Senate race so far, but I promise I'll post about other stuff eventually...I'm an elections junkie.

So my question is would Landrieu have lost in '08 had it been anything but a great Democratic year? Even if it had just been a mildly pro-Democratic year, would she have gone down? Keep in mind she only won by six points IRL.

[SPC]

She would have lost in 2008 had Louisiana not left the jungle primary system for that election.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

She would have lost in 2008 had Louisiana not left the jungle primary system for that election.

Why? She won without a runoff. Are you saying that if Louisiana had used party primaries, Kennedy wouldn't have been the nominee? He was the only one running.

[Miles]

She would have won, but it would have been by around 3-4%. I think the slump for Obama/Landrieu would have been similar in the rural areas regardless, but Obama really helped to turnout blacks for her in Baton Rouge and Shreveport.

Keep in mind, Katrina recovery was still a huge issue then. Lots of ordinarily-GOP suburban New Orleans voters were willing to look past her party label becuase of her recovery efforts. I think they would have done so even in normal/slightly Democratic year.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Keep in mind, Katrina recovery was still a huge issue then. Lots of ordinarily-GOP suburban New Orleans voters were willing to look past her party label becuase of her recovery efforts. I think they would have done so even in normal/slightly Democratic year.

Even this year her results pattern show a clear personal vote in Greater Nawlins.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

She would have won, but it would have been by around 3-4%. I think the slump for Obama/Landrieu would have been similar in the rural areas regardless, but Obama really helped to turnout blacks for her in Baton Rouge and Shreveport.

Keep in mind, Katrina recovery was still a huge issue then. Lots of ordinarily-GOP suburban New Orleans voters were willing to look past her party label becuase of her recovery efforts. I think they would have done so even in normal/slightly Democratic year.

Yeah, Louisiana's incumbent-friendly in congressional races (not so much in state races). And just three years after Katrina, the seniority argument (and plus everyone knew she'd be in the majority party then) may have carried some weight.

[Mister Mets]

She probably would have lost.

Her reelection in '08 was by about 6 1/2 points.

She probably would have lost in a cycle where news wasn't as good for Democrats.

[ElectionsGuy]

No. Her win didn't really have much to do with the D wave, given Obama barely got 40% in the state that year. It had more to do with helping Katrina victims and keeping loyal white Democrats.

If she ran in 2010 or any other year after 2008, she would have lost.

[BaconBacon96]

No. White Southern Democrats were still electable in 2008.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

No. Her win didn't really have much to do with the D wave, given Obama barely got 40% in the state that year.

I don't think anyone is saying she rode Obama's coattails...just that it was such an overall favorable environment for D's that an incumbent Dem. senator couldn't lose. Hell, it was the only seat the GOP really contested that year. They didn't even run someone against Pryor!

[nclib]

She would have lost in 2008 had Louisiana not left the jungle primary system for that election.

Not sure if I'm reading this correctly. Are you saying that if they had used the jungle primary, then Landrieu would have lost?

It looks like there was only one candidate for each party. Was this coincidental or did the rules change for that election?

[Miles]

^ No, the change wasn't just for Landrieu's election. The 2010 LA race also used the normal primary system.

[SPC]

She would have lost in 2008 had Louisiana not left the jungle primary system for that election.

Why? She won without a runoff. Are you saying that if Louisiana had used party primaries, Kennedy wouldn't have been the nominee? He was the only one running.

I guess I underestimated Landrieu's margin of victory in 2008. In 2002 and 2014, fringe Democrats got 1.9% and 1.4% respectively, while Ladnrieu won 2008 with 52.1%. So, I stand corrected, Landrieu probably would have barely won outright even with a jungle primary.

[solarstorm]

Guys, I think you all underestimate the PUMA effect in the South.
Landrieu, Nixon, Rockefeller and Manchin (and Beebe in 2014) performed so extremely well because all the Clinton Democrats despised and still despise Obama. By voting for all those candidates they wanted to show their support for the Democrat Party while showing their hatred for the presidential nominee at the same time.
Simultaneously, Obama's nomination engendered a massive turnout in the African American community, so that Democratic down-ballot candidates profited by Obama's candidacy in two respects.