OH-Sen: Ryan considering

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

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Since Portman and the Kochs will tear him to shreds the second he enters the race, he can't keep that nice guy attitude if he wants to win.

Two things:

1. What were you expecting Ryan to say?  He can't say "Rob Portman is a worthless piece of crap"

2. This is a big deal if true, conventional wisdom here was that Ryan wasn't interested, but if he is then this seat immediately goes from Likely-to-Safe R to being a tossup.  Strickland and Ryan (Cordrey isn't interested) are basically the only people who can put this in play.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Portman is on track to be the Mark Warner of the 2016 cycle.

Ryan =/= Gillespie

Ryan's an infinitely stronger candidate than Gillespie.  If Ryan runs, he could definitely win even if the Democratic Presidential nominee loses Ohio.  Portman is a really tough opponent, but he's far from unbeatable.  Of course, it is also obviously possible that Portman wins a narrow and Ryan hasn't actually said he's running, so we'll see...

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The names keep piling up. P.G. Sittenfeld, a huge rising star in the ODP and Cincinnati City Councilman, said "I've been taking the time to think through how I can make the biggest positive impact for my party and my state, so this is definitely something I'm thinking about" when asked about the Senate race in 2016.

Sittenfeld is also apparently sitting on what to call his site. I personally think he needs to do more building up before he runs, but luckily, that link also says that the "NewDEAL" plans to set him up for an even bigger future than once thought. There's also Connie Pillich who's from the Cincinnati area that's considering a run, so whoever faces Portman might end up being from his home-turf as well.

As for Ryan.....

I unfortunately don't think a Ryan run will happen. I remember when Ohio Dems tried to get him to run against DeWine in '06 even though the year was looking bad for the GOP, and he declined. Ryan has to give up his House seat and his seat on the Appropriations Committee as a result to run for Senate, and he just won't do that. It's worth mentioning to that Ryan has a friendly relationship with Bob Hagan, who are both from Mahoning Valley and Hagan is already running in 2016. I'm sorry, I would love a Ryan run as much as the next person, but we won't get him. He would need to feel pretty confident to run against Portman, and unfortunately Portman's war chest is not reassuring for some Democrats if this year in Ohio was any indication for poor fundraising against strong Republican incumbents.

Not to rule out former serving Reps. of course (Boccieri and Sutton are the most likely that come to mind). I think Strickland might be a possibility, but we can't rely on him unless he changes his mind from his previously stated "not running" comments. Otherwise, assuming Strickland and Ryan ultimately decline, I'm holding out hope in support of a Boccieri, Sutton or Sittenfeld run.

No one wanted Ryan to run in 2006, Brown was always the first choice.  Sittenfeld and Pillich would lose by double-digits (Pillich might by able to make it 8-9%).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The names keep piling up. P.G. Sittenfeld, a huge rising star in the ODP and Cincinnati City Councilman, said "I've been taking the time to think through how I can make the biggest positive impact for my party and my state, so this is definitely something I'm thinking about" when asked about the Senate race in 2016.

Sittenfeld is also apparently sitting on what to call his site. I personally think he needs to do more building up before he runs, but luckily, that link also says that the "NewDEAL" plans to set him up for an even bigger future than once thought. There's also Connie Pillich who's from the Cincinnati area that's considering a run, so whoever faces Portman might end up being from his home-turf as well.

As for Ryan.....

I unfortunately don't think a Ryan run will happen. I remember when Ohio Dems tried to get him to run against DeWine in '06 even though the year was looking bad for the GOP, and he declined. Ryan has to give up his House seat and his seat on the Appropriations Committee as a result to run for Senate, and he just won't do that. It's worth mentioning to that Ryan has a friendly relationship with Bob Hagan, who are both from Mahoning Valley and Hagan is already running in 2016. I'm sorry, I would love a Ryan run as much as the next person, but we won't get him. He would need to feel pretty confident to run against Portman, and unfortunately Portman's war chest is not reassuring for some Democrats if this year in Ohio was any indication for poor fundraising against strong Republican incumbents.

Not to rule out former serving Reps. of course (Boccieri and Sutton are the most likely that come to mind). I think Strickland might be a possibility, but we can't rely on him unless he changes his mind from his previously stated "not running" comments. Otherwise, assuming Strickland and Ryan ultimately decline, I'm holding out hope in support of a Boccieri, Sutton or Sittenfeld run.

No one wanted Ryan to run in 2006, Brown was always the first choice.  Sittenfeld and Pillich would lose by double-digits (Pillich might by able to make it 8-9%).

Dude, you need to be more optimistic about our chances here!

I was wrong and you were right this year (though that was because an unexpected implosion of the top of the ticket campaign, and unexpected GOP wave), but I think Portman could be beat with the right candidate, and we don't necessarily need to rely on Ryan or Strickland to beat him.

Pillich is a strong fundraiser, has a good background, has name ID, and appeals to the base and centrists. She could win in a good year for us which I think 2016 will be. Sittenfeld admittedly probably couldn't win, but would come close. He's not ready for a statewide run yet.

All I'm saying is, don't get your hopes up about Strickland and Ryan. They'll be letdowns, and we should begin to recruit someone who's more likely to run like the aforementioned.

Pillich can defintely win a row-office in 2018 and so can Carney, but I doubt either can beat Portman.  I highly doubt Coleman can beat Portman, but he's at least a respectable decoy/wave and/or late-breaking scandal insurance.  Coleman would definitely lose, but I imagine the NRSC would have to at least spend some money.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Why is everyone assuming Portman will the republican primary?

Having learned no lessons from 2014, Democratic blithering about random Republican Senators being primaried is beginning in earnest once again

I'm not a Democrat dumbass.  And Portman being a supporter of gay marriage makes him very vulnerable in a republican primary.

No it doesn't. Who is going to challenge him just because of gay marriage?

Rep. Steve Stivers is supposedly thinking of running.  I'm not saying Portman will surely lose the primary but if you don't think it will be an issue among Ohio republicans (Ohio republicans, not Massachusetts republicans), I think you are lying to yourself.

Stivers is going to run against Brown in 2018 and Portman won't face a remotely serious primary challenge.  The tea-party was never big here for whatever reason, even at the height of their national influence.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The names keep piling up. P.G. Sittenfeld, a huge rising star in the ODP and Cincinnati City Councilman, said "I've been taking the time to think through how I can make the biggest positive impact for my party and my state, so this is definitely something I'm thinking about" when asked about the Senate race in 2016.

Sittenfeld is also apparently sitting on what to call his site. I personally think he needs to do more building up before he runs, but luckily, that link also says that the "NewDEAL" plans to set him up for an even bigger future than once thought. There's also Connie Pillich who's from the Cincinnati area that's considering a run, so whoever faces Portman might end up being from his home-turf as well.

As for Ryan.....

I unfortunately don't think a Ryan run will happen. I remember when Ohio Dems tried to get him to run against DeWine in '06 even though the year was looking bad for the GOP, and he declined. Ryan has to give up his House seat and his seat on the Appropriations Committee as a result to run for Senate, and he just won't do that. It's worth mentioning to that Ryan has a friendly relationship with Bob Hagan, who are both from Mahoning Valley and Hagan is already running in 2016. I'm sorry, I would love a Ryan run as much as the next person, but we won't get him. He would need to feel pretty confident to run against Portman, and unfortunately Portman's war chest is not reassuring for some Democrats if this year in Ohio was any indication for poor fundraising against strong Republican incumbents.

Not to rule out former serving Reps. of course (Boccieri and Sutton are the most likely that come to mind). I think Strickland might be a possibility, but we can't rely on him unless he changes his mind from his previously stated "not running" comments. Otherwise, assuming Strickland and Ryan ultimately decline, I'm holding out hope in support of a Boccieri, Sutton or Sittenfeld run.

No one wanted Ryan to run in 2006, Brown was always the first choice.  Sittenfeld and Pillich would lose by double-digits (Pillich might by able to make it 8-9%).

Dude, you need to be more optimistic about our chances here!

I was wrong and you were right this year (though that was because an unexpected implosion of the top of the ticket campaign, and unexpected GOP wave), but I think Portman could be beat with the right candidate, and we don't necessarily need to rely on Ryan or Strickland to beat him.

Pillich is a strong fundraiser, has a good background, has name ID, and appeals to the base and centrists. She could win in a good year for us which I think 2016 will be. Sittenfeld admittedly probably couldn't win, but would come close. He's not ready for a statewide run yet.

All I'm saying is, don't get your hopes up about Strickland and Ryan. They'll be letdowns, and we should begin to recruit someone who's more likely to run like the aforementioned.

Pillich can defintely win a row-office in 2018 and so can Carney, but I doubt either can beat Portman.  I highly doubt Coleman can beat Portman, but he's at least a respectable decoy/wave and/or late-breaking scandal insurance.  Coleman would definitely lose, but I imagine the NRSC would have to at least spend some money.

If people begin to declare to run against Portman in the Democratic primary, I could see that being the case with Pillich to wait to run for something else until 2018, but otherwise I've got high hopes for her. As for Coleman, he could never get out of the primary let alone beat Portman. He's been a good friend of Kasich's for awhile, took forever to endorse the Democratic slate this year, and the state party would certainly back whoever his challenger was. I don't think he'll run, but he's doomed from the start.

Why is everyone assuming Portman will the republican primary?

Having learned no lessons from 2014, Democratic blithering about random Republican Senators being primaried is beginning in earnest once again

I'm not a Democrat dumbass.  And Portman being a supporter of gay marriage makes him very vulnerable in a republican primary.

No it doesn't. Who is going to challenge him just because of gay marriage?

Rep. Steve Stivers is supposedly thinking of running.  I'm not saying Portman will surely lose the primary but if you don't think it will be an issue among Ohio republicans (Ohio republicans, not Massachusetts republicans), I think you are lying to yourself.

Nah, if anyone challenges Portman in the primary, they'll be Zawistowski-backed, and Stivers is too established and well-off with Kasich and Boehner to challenge Portman from the right. Besides, Stivers is sitting on a nice amount of cash for a future likely statewide run, and running against Portman won't be his time to do it.

That doesn't mean though that he won't get a half-way decent Tea Party challenger against him. State Rep. Ron Maag, Tea Party-backed, is term-limited in 2016 and could possibly run. Heck, maybe Zawistowski could convince one of the primary losers from this year like Caleb Daveport or Matt Lynch to run. Zawistowski will find somebody, no doubt because he absolutely loathes him after the McDaniel-Cochran debacle that Portman got himself involved in. Portman will win the primary, but he will face opposition.

No offense or anything, but no one in the state party cares that Coleman didn't want anything to do with FitzGerald.  I know you're still sore about that, but you're more or less the only one in Ohio who still cares enough not to vote for Coleman over it, I suspect.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

My guess is that one of the three stooges (Lynch, Maag, and Hood) will run, Hood being the most likely, but they'll do about as well as Seth Morgan did when he ran against Yost for Auditor in 2010.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Stivers primaried Portman, he'd be primarying him from the left. I do think Portman will face a primary challenge from Zawistowski and co. but it will be from someone irrelevant and Portman will win it easily.

In the general election, Coleman is the Dem's best candidate. Ryan would be okay but he may as well be generic D statewide. Pillich wouldn't do as well as Ryan but would still be a respectable candidate. Strickland vs. Portman would give us a results map that looks like a time warp back to the 90s. Portman would win back the suburbs and Hamilton County while Strickland would put Southeast Ohio back in the Democratic column. I don't think Strickland is a great candidate though at this point.

Coleman's a B candidate, Strickland is an A+ candidate, Ryan is an A candidate, and Pillich is a B/B+ candidate IMO.