Would Byrd have lost in 2014?

[IceSpear]

I know his seat actually would've been up in 2012, but let's just assume it was up in 2014. Capito still runs, and everything else stays the same. Would he have lost?

[ElectionsGuy]

It would probably be a single-digit margin but yes, I think so.

[Lief 🗽]

Is he alive or dead in this scenario?

[KCDem]

This is Robert Byrd, guys. He would have easily won and by double digits.

[Del Tachi]

Yes, he would have won every single county and garnered over 60% of the vote

[TDAS04]

It would probably be a single-digit margin but yesno, I don't think so.

[IceSpear]

Yes, he would have won every single county and garnered over 60% of the vote

It's worth noting he was held to his lowest percentage of the vote (64%) since 1958 in 2006, despite that being a great year for Democrats in general. I doubt he would've been completely immune from the trend that sunk people like Rahall and other decades long incumbents in the state.

If he got 64% against Raese in a Democratic wave, there's no way he'd crack 60% against Capito in a Republican wave.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

He would have won 55%-45%. My aunts don't refer to him as "Big Daddy" Byrd for nothing...

[ElectionsGuy]

I want to respond again and say this is a very open-ended question. Byrd was only around for 1.5 years of Obama, who has a whopping 25% approval in the state. It would very much depend on the kind of relationship he had with the Obama administration for those remaining 4.5 years. He also voted for the ACA, something people could use against him. As well, the Dems got thrashed this year in West Virginia. R's picked up the State Senate (which was 70% D's before 2014!), which nobody thought would happen. Rahall got wiped by 10 points, and local/county governments are also electing much more Republicans now.

Now of course this is all kind of silly because he was so old anyway and would've never ran for re-election, and his seat wouldn't be up this year, but if it was, he would at least be endangered. He's Robert Byrd, but I don't think anybody could just escape the situation for Democrats in Appalachia.

(And by the way, I think he would've won big in 2010 or 2012)

[Nichlemn]

I think his age would be a (mostly unspoken) vulnerability. (If Byrd were alive today, he'd be 97).

[IceSpear]

I want to respond again and say this is a very open-ended question. Byrd was only around for 1.5 years of Obama, who has a whopping 25% approval in the state. It would very much depend on the kind of relationship he had with the Obama administration for those remaining 4.5 years. He also voted for the ACA, something people could use against him. As well, the Dems got thrashed this year in West Virginia. R's picked up the State Senate (which was 70% D's before 2014!), which nobody thought would happen. Rahall got wiped by 10 points, and local/county governments are also electing much more Republicans now.

Now of course this is all kind of silly because he was so old anyway and would've never ran for re-election, and his seat wouldn't be up this year, but if it was, he would at least be endangered. He's Robert Byrd, but I don't think anybody could just escape the situation for Democrats in Appalachia.

(And by the way, I think he would've won big in 2010 or 2012)

Had he lived, I don't think he would've retired. He clearly wanted to be a lifer like Thurmond/Inouye.

I could really see anything from a fairly comfortable win for Byrd (something like 55-45) to a comfortable Capito win, which is why I asked the question. But I think the "Byrd cracks 60%, sweeps all the counties" scenario can be safely ruled out considering the 2006 results and the utter devastation incurred by Democrats at all levels in West Virginia this year. And yeah, I agree he would've won big in 2010/2012.

[Miles]

I really do wonder if WV would be as Republican as it is now if he was still alive. I know the EPA/Obama is mostly responsible for it, but it wasn't until after Byrd died that WV went off the deep end.

[Nichlemn]

I really do wonder if WV would be as Republican as it is now if he was still alive. I know the EPA/Obama is mostly responsible for it, but it wasn't until after Byrd died that WV went off the deep end.

I doubt  Senators can really influence their states' general politics very much.

[Maxwell]

Capito wouldn't have run against Byrd. She's been a very cautious politician.

[IceSpear]

Capito wouldn't have run against Byrd. She's been a very cautious politician.

You're probably right, but just roll with it.

[Maxwell]

Capito wouldn't have run against Byrd. She's been a very cautious politician.

You're probably right, but just roll with it.

In the year 2014, Byrd would've lost. It would be a huge upset, but he would've lost.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I really do wonder if WV would be as Republican as it is now if he was still alive. I know the EPA/Obama is mostly responsible for it, but it wasn't until after Byrd died that WV went off the deep end.

I doubt  Senators can really influence their states' general politics very much.

Very few senators do, but Byrd was an institution.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

97 years old, ACA and such forth would have probably caused him to lose. WV has changed, and realizing full well that he probably wouldn't live to see half of his term would likely have influenced them to go with the someone like Capito. Byrd was strong but this isn't 1994 anymore (first and last time he was up in a GOP wave. Ironically, most every cycle he was up in leaned Democratic or was a Dem Wave: 1958, 1964, 1982, 2000, 2006, which says little since he was an institution unto himself but just thought I would mention it).

[King]

Byrd wasn't a puss. He would've told West Virginians what's what and they'd vote for him on pro-ACA landslide.

[dmmidmi]

Byrd wasn't a puss. He would've told West Virginians what's what and they'd vote for him on pro-ACA landslide.

This is the correct answer.

[The_Doctor]

Byrd wasn't a puss. He would've told West Virginians what's what and they'd vote for him on pro-ACA landslide.

This is the correct answer.

[Maxwell]

Byrd wasn't a puss. He would've told West Virginians what's what and they'd vote for him on pro-ACA landslide.

This is the correct answer.

Robert Byrd would've been 97 guys. He was a doddering old fool a couple years earlier.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think his age would be a (mostly unspoken) vulnerability. (If Byrd were alive today, he'd be 97).

Yeah, if he was still in his 80s, he'd win, but I think 97 would be too much.