2016 and Onward: The Redux

[Emperor Charles V]

Hello, I'm Wolf Blitzer and welcome to CNN's coverage of the 2016 Presidential Election!



President Obama has been in office for almost eight years and his second term is set to expire next January. Since the 22nd Amendment forbids all sitting presidents to run for a third term, his successor will be crowned tonight. Interestingly enough, our next president will be either the wife or brother and son of a former president. No matter if former Secretary of State and New York Senator Hillary Clinton or former Florida Governor Jeb Bush is the victor tonight, this election will mark the prevalence of political dynasties in our republic. If Clinton wins she will make history as the first female president but also at age 69 be the second oldest president to take office, just a few months younger than Ronald Reagan when he was elected in 1980. If Bush wins, his wife Columba Bush will make history as the first Hispanic First Lady.

Though Clinton has convincingly led in most of the polls throughout the race, a strong effort by the Bush camp to revamp the image of the Republican Party has cause the polling numbers to tighten up and the race is currently seen as a tossup. Clinton has a slight advantage, though as of now it is possible for either her or Bush to become America's 45th President. Statistics guru Nate Silver echoes this saying that there is 55% chance Clinton will prevail, and a 45% chance that the Bush legacy would continue with it's third member becoming president tonight.

Though we are watching many swing states tonight, the three that will probably decide the entire race are Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia. Pundits say that the candidate that wins at least two of these three states will become our next president.

Both candidates have made unexpected choices for their running mates. Bush's victory in the Republican primaries over Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz angered the Tea Party wing of the GOP causing many Tea Partiers to threaten to run a splinter ticket. However, these threats seemingly stopped when Bush stunned the American public with the choice of Senator Paul as his running mate in order to unite the party and appeal to a broader electorate. I believe the choice of Paul will in the long run do Bush more good than harm as more conservative Republicans who might have stayed home had he gone with another establishment Republican as his running mate will turn out to him. The choice of Paul is also an appeal to libertarian-minded Republicans, and increasing force in the party, and swing voters who would be otherwise turned off by Bush's more interventionist foreign policy and his embrace of the Common Core education initiative. Clinton has also made a surprising choice for her running mate picking the freshman Senator from New Mexico, Martin Heinrich. Heinrich who is only 45 will bring youth to the ticket balancing with the 69-year-old Clinton. He also has a proven bipartisan record which will increase Clinton's appeal with independent voters who are the key for both candidates to win this election.

Obama's approval rating has recovered in the last two years of his presidency and is just around 50% as I speak. Therefore, independent voters will be crucial to the outcome of the election. Also important is the growing Hispanic vote. Though a traditional Democratic voter block, the Republicans have recruited possibly their best candidate in winning Hispanic votes, although Clinton's choice of Heinrich who represents a largely Hispanic state will help her as well.



Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Ellis "Jeb" Bush square off tonight to see who will become the nation's 45th president

In addition to the Presidential Race, a third of the Senate along with the entire House of Representatives and 11 state governorships are up for election tonight. The House according to all pundits will remain in Republican hands after tonight mostly because of Republic-favored gerrymandering which impedes the Democrats from winning enough seats to take the majority in the body. However, the Senate is a completely different story. After eight years of Democratic control, the Republicans retook the upper house from the Democrats in the midterm elections two years ago. They currently hold a majority with 54 seats meaning the Democrats need five pickups if Bush is to win and four if Clinton is to win to retake the Senate. This is extremely likely to happen regardless of the presidential winner tonight as the senate map tonight overwhelmingly favors the Democrats, and the GOP is defending many seats in states where Obama won. A variety of Senate races tonight are deemed to be competitive:

Competitive Democratic-held Seats

CO: Michael Bennet (D-inc) vs. Walker Stapleton (R)
CA: Kamala Harris (D) vs. Gavin Newsom (D); Barbara Boxer (D-inc) retiring
NV: Harry Reid (D-inc) vs. Brian Sandoval (R)
WA: Adam Smith (D) vs. Rob McKenna (R); Patty Murray (D-inc) retiring

Competitive Republican-held Seats

AZ: David Schweikert (R) vs. Kyrsten Sinema (D); John McCain (R-inc) retiring
AR: John Boozman (R-inc) vs. Dustin McDaniel (D)
FL: Marco Rubio (R-inc) vs. Kathy Castor (D)  
GA: Austin Scott (R) vs. Michelle Nunn (D); Johnny Isakson (R-inc) retiring
IL: Mark Kirk (R-inc) vs. Cheri Bustos (D)
IN: Dan Coats (R-inc) vs. Thomas McDermott, Jr. (D)
IA: Chuck Grassley (R-inc) vs. Tom Vilsack (D)
KY: Thomas Massie (R) vs. Adam Edelen (D); Rand Paul (R-inc) retiring
MO: Roy Blunt (R-inc) vs. Mike Sanders (D)
NH: Kelly Ayotte (R-inc) vs. Ann McLane Kuster (D)
NC: Richard Burr (R-inc) vs. Heath Shuler (D)
OH: Rob Portman (R-inc) vs. Richard Cordray (D)
PA: Pat Toomey (R-inc) vs. Joe Sestak (D)
WI: Ron Johnson (R-inc) vs. Russ Feingold (D)

A few gubernatorial races also are highly competitive:

Competitive Democratic-held Governorships

MO: Chris Koster (D) vs. Catherine Hanaway (R); Jay Nixon (D-inc) term-limited
MT: Steve Bullock (D-inc) vs. Greg Gianforte (R)
WA: Jay Inslee (D-inc) vs. Kim Wyman (R)
WV: Carte Goodwin (D) vs. Patrick Morrisey (R); Earl Ray Tomblin (D-inc) term-limited

Competitive Republican-held Governorships

NC: Pat McCrory (R-inc) vs. Roy Cooper (D)

It's 6:59 PM EST and the polls are just about to close in the first batch of states where we will get our first results on this exciting night. The polls are closing in 3....2....1....!

[rpryor03]

This looks interesting, I'll be watching.

[Emperor Charles V]

It's 7:00 PM EST. The polls have just closed in Indiana, Kentucky, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont and Virginia. We can make the following projections:

Indiana

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Governor: Mike Pence (R-inc)
Senate: Too close to call
IN-02: Jackie Walorski (R-inc)

Kentucky

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Senate: Too close to call
KY-06: Andy Barr (R-inc)

Florida

President: Too close to call
Senate: Too close to call
FL-02: Too close to call
FL-13: Too close to call
FL-18: Too close to call
FL-26: Carlos Curbelo (R-inc)

Georgia

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Senate: Too close to call
GA-12: Too close to call

South Carolina:

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Senate: Tim Scott (R-inc)

Vermont:

President: Hillary Clinton (D)
Senate: Patrick Leahy (D-inc)

Virginia:

President: Too close to call
VA-02: Scott Rigell (R-inc)
VA-10: Barbara Comstock (R-inc)

Here is the electoral map as it currently stands:

fmr. Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) / Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) - 44 EV
fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) - 3 EV

More polls will close at 7:30! Stay tuned!

[Emperor Charles V]

This looks interesting, I'll be watching.

Thanks! Hopefully, it will get even more interesting.

[Emperor Charles V]

It's now 7:30 PM EST and the polls have now closed in Ohio, North Carolina and West Virginia. We can project:

Ohio

President: Too close to call
Senate: Too close to call

North Carolina

President: Too close to call
Governor: Too close to call
Senate: Too close to call

West Virginia

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Governor: Too close to call
WV-01: Erikka Storch (R); David McKinley (R-inc) retiring
WV-02: Too close to call
WV-03: Evan Jenkins (R-inc)

Previously Uncalled Senate Races

Indiana Senate: Dan Coats (R-inc)
Kentucky Senate: Thomas Massie (R); Rand Paul (R-inc) retiring

Previously Uncalled House Races

FL-13: David Jolly (R-inc)
FL-18: Patrick Murphy (D-inc)

With the call in West Virginia, Governor Bush expands his lead over Secretary Clinton:

fmr. Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) / Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) - 49 EV
fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) - 3 EV

The race is still anybody's game. Polls are closing in over a dozen states in half an hour! Stay tuned!

[Emperor Charles V]

It's now 8:00 PM and the polls have closed in nineteen states and the District of Columbia. We have a lot of projections to make now.

Alabama

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Senate: Martha Roby (R); Richard Shelby (R-inc) retiring

Connecticut
President: Hillary Clinton (D)
Senate: Richard Blumenthal (D-inc)

Delaware

President: Hillary Clinton (D)
Governor: Beau Biden (D); Jack Markell (D-inc) term-limited

District of Columbia

President: Hillary Clinton (D)

Illinois

President: Hillary Clinton (D)
Senate: Too close to call
IL-10: Too close to call
IL-12: Too close to call
IL-13: Too close to call
IL-17: Too close to call

Kansas

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Senate: Jerry Moran (R-inc)

Maine

Statewide President: Hillary Clinton (D)
1st District President: Hillary Clinton (D)
2nd District President: Too close to call
ME-02: Too close to call

Maryland

President: Hillary Clinton (D)
Senate: Martin O'Malley (D); Barbara Mikulski (D-inc) retiring

Massachusetts

President: Hillary Clinton (D)
MA-06: Seth Moulton (D-inc)

Michigan

President: Hillary Clinton (D)
MI-01: Too close to call
MI-07: Too close to call

Mississippi

President: Jeb Bush (R)

Missouri

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Governor: Too close to call
Senate: Too close to call

New Hampshire

President: Too close to call
Senate: Too close to call
NH-01: Too close to call
NH-02: Too close to call

New Jersey

President: Hillary Clinton (D)
NJ-02: Too close to call
NJ-03: Too close to call
NJ-05: Too close to call

Oklahoma

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Senate: James Lankford (R-inc)

Pennsylvania

President: Too close to call
Senate: Too close to call
PA-06: Too close to call
PA-08: Too close to call

Rhode Island

President: Hillary Clinton (D)

South Dakota

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Senate: John Thune (R-inc)

Tennessee

President: Jeb Bush (R)

Texas

President: Jeb Bush (R)
TX-23: Too close to call

Previously Uncalled Senate Races

Georgia Senate: Austin Scott (R); Johnny Isakson (R-inc) retiring

Previously Uncalled House Races

FL-02: Marti Coley (R) def. Gwen Graham (D-inc)
WV-02: Alex Mooney (R-inc)

The defeat of Gwen Graham who was thought of by many as a rising star gives the Republicans the first congressional pickup of the night.

Here is the map after the 8:00 poll closings.

fmr. Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) / Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) - 139 EV
fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) - 94 EV

Bush still maintains a lead over Clinton. Will he continue to maintain this lead or will Clinton catch up? Stay tuned to find out!

[Free Bird]

This is probably the fairest TL I have seen

[Emperor Charles V]

This is probably the fairest TL I have seen

Thanks. I'm trying to be as fair as possible.

[Emperor Charles V]

It's 8:30 PM EST and polls have closed in Arkansas where we can make the following projections:

Arkansas

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Senate: John Boozman (R-inc)
AR-02: Too close to call

Clinton fails to win the very state where she served twelve years as first lady, but due to Arkansas's recent sharp trend to the right, this was expected.

And wait...we have another call to make!



North Carolina President: Jeb Bush (R)

We can now project the first swing state of the night! Former Governor Jeb Bush has prevailed in the Tarheel State! Though Clinton did want to pull off a victory here, the state is not at all necessary for her path to 270, and as a result she pulled many resources from the state to focus on winning in the much more important battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virginia. However, despite Bush's victory in North Carolina, the senate and gubernatorial races there where republican incumbents Richard Burr and Pat McCrory are in the fights of their political lives remain too close to call.

We can also project a few congressional races that have previously been in the "too close to call" column:

Previously Uncalled Senate Races

Missouri Senate: Roy Blunt (R-inc)

Previously Uncalled House Races

IL-13: Rodney Davis (R-inc)
IL-17: George Gaulrapp (D); Cheri Bustos (D-inc) retiring
ME-02: Troy Dale Jackson (D) def. Bruce Poliquin (R-inc)
NH-01: Frank Guinta (R-inc)
NJ-03: Tom MacArthur (R-inc)
NJ-05: Scott Garrett (R-inc)
PA-06: Ryan Costello (R-inc)
PA-08: Jim Cawley (R); Mike Fitzpatrick (R-inc) retiring

The only party change here is in Maine's 2nd District where Democrat Troy Jackson has defeated the incumbent Tea Party Republican Bruce Poliquin marking the first Democratic congressional pickup of the night. However, despite the Democratic gain there, the second district still remains too close to call on the presidential level.

With the addition of Arkansas and North Carolina, Governor Bush expands his early lead over Secretary Clinton.

fmr. Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) / Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) - 160 EV
fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) - 94 EV

More polls will close at 9! Stay tuned for more projections!

[Emperor Charles V]

If this author of this timeline is thinking like I am I am not surprised by the Blount win in Missouri. If the author of this timeline is thinking like I am he'll call Portman the winner in Ohio and Grassley in Iowa and Feingold in Wisconsin. I don't know Nevada Senate off the top of my head. It would take a bit of a Bush wave for Johnson to win Wisconsin. Its not like Wisconsin is Delaware or Rhode Island.

Good predictions. Stay tuned to see if you are right!

[Emperor Charles V]

It's 9:00 PM EST and the polls have closed in a bunch of more states. We can now project:

Arizona

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Senate: Too close to call
AZ-01: Too close to call
AZ-02: Too close to call
AZ-09: Too close to call

Colorado

President: Too close to call
Senate: Too close to call
CO-06: Too close to call

Louisiana

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Senate: Charles Boustany (R-inc)

Minnesota

President: Hillary Clinton (D)
MN-07: Torrey Westrom (R); Collin Peterson (D-inc) retiring
MN-08: Rick Nolan (D-inc)

Nebraska

President: Jeb Bush (R)
NE-02: Too close to call

New Mexico

President: Hillary Clinton (D)
NM-02: Alonzo Baldonado (R); Steve Pearce (R-inc) retiring

New York

President: Hillary Clinton (D)
Senate: Chuck Schumer (D)
NY-01: Too close to call
NY-02: Steve Levy (R); Peter King (R-inc) retiring
NY-04: Kathleen Rice (D-inc)
NY-11: Too close to call
NY-18: Too close to call
NY-19: Chris Gibson (R-inc)
NY-21: Elise Stefanik (R-inc)
NY-22: Richard Hanna (R-inc)
NY-23: Tom Reed (R-inc)
NY-24: Too close to call
NY-25: Harry Bronson (D); Louise Slaughter (D-inc) retiring

Wisconsin

President: Too close to call
Senate: Too close to call
WI-08: Reid Ribble (R-inc)

Wyoming

President: Jeb Bush (R)

Previously Uncalled Presidential Races

Maine's Second District President: Hillary Clinton (D)

Previously Uncalled Gubernatorial Races

Missouri Governor: Catherine Hanaway (R); Jay Nixon (D-inc) term-limited
North Carolina Governor: Roy Cooper (D) def. Pat McCrory (R-inc)

Previously Uncalled Senate Races

North Carolina Senate: Heath Shuler (D) def. Richard Burr (R-inc)

Previously Uncalled House Races

IL-12: Jerry Costello II (D) def. Mike Bost (R-inc)
MI-01: Gary McDowell (D) def. Dan Benishek (R-inc)
NJ-02: Bill Hughes, Jr. (D); Frank LoBiondo (R-inc) retiring

Two governorships will change party hands tonight. In Missouri, two-term incumbent Jay Nixon per state constitution is ineligible to seek a third term and he will be succeeded by Republican former U.S. Attorney Catherine Hanaway, who makes history as the Show Me State's first female governor. However, in North Carolina, it is a different story as unpopular Republican incumbent Pat McCrory has lost re-election to his Democratic Challenger, State Attorney General Roy Cooper.



Missouri Governor-elect Catherine Hanaway (R) will become her state's first female governor

Also, in North Carolina, incumbent Republican Senator Richard Burr will lose re-election to third term to former Representative and NFL Quarterback Heath Shuler by a margin of about ten points, placing the night's first senate pickup into the Democratic column. Shuler, a conservative Blue Dog Democrat and political maverick stunned the nation where he won first place in a crowded Democratic primary which included party favorites former Senator Kay Hagan (who narrowly lost her re-election bid in 2014) and State Treasurer Janet Cowell, and subsequently prevailed in a runoff against Hagan. Shuler's surprise nomination disappointed several progressives but gave him the support of many independents and Republicans who allowed him to cruise to a decisive victory, even as Bush carried the Tarheel State.



Senator-elect Heath Shuler (D-NC) whose defeat of incumbent Republican Richard Burr marked the night's first Senate pickup for either party

Over on the House side, the Democrats have scored three more pickups bringing them to a net two gains in the lower chamber of Congress. In a southern Illinois district, incumbent Republican Mike Bost, known as "Meltdown Mike" for his loud and frequent outbursts on the House floor and the Illinois Legislature before that, has lost his re-election bid to Jerry Costello II, whose father previously represented the district. In Michigan's First District, which includes the entirety of the state's upper peninsula, pro-life Blue Dog Democrat Gary McDowell has ousted incumbent Tea Party Republican Dan Benishek. This is McDowell's third run against Benishek and after losses in 2010 and 2012, three times is a charm for him as he finally wins the First's congressional seat. Democrats also pick up an open seat in southern New Jersey following the retirement of moderate Republican Frank LoBiondo with Bill Hughes Jr., the son of LoBiondo's processor defeating Republican State Assemblyman Sam Fiocchi.

The Republicans on the other hand pick up one seat in western Minnesota with the retirement of longtime Blue Dog incumbent Collin Peterson. Peterson will be replaced by Republican State Senator Torrey Westrom. Westrom, who Peterson defeated two years earlier, will become the nation's first blind congressman in the 21st century.

As of 9:00, here is the electoral map:

fmr. Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) / Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) - 187 EV
fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) - 139 EV

Governor Bush still leads Secretary Clinton but many swing states remain uncalled. Who will win the race and the right to succeed President Obama? Stay tuned to find out!

[Consciously Unconscious]

A good indicator of whether or not Bush wins would be what time he wins Florida (if he wins it).  He would need to win it fairly early if he's going to win. 

[Emperor Charles V]

A good indicator of whether or not Bush wins would be what time he wins Florida (if he wins it).  He would need to win it fairly early if he's going to win. 

Great observation! We'll see what happens!

[Free Bird]

No 50 state sweep junk TL

[tmthforu94]

Looks good!

[Emperor Charles V]

I agree Pennsylvania and Virginia and Ohio being determined to be the real bellwhether states means Florida is not competitive. Gwen Graham loosing her congressional district in Florida makes it look like Florida is going in the direction right now of Bush. Bush may have coat tails that pull Republican congressmen and women and governors into office but not have big enough coattails to win the presidency himself. In spite of what some people think about 2016 in real life. Clinton I think has few to no coattails. Its possible Bush wins all three Ohio and Virginia and Pennsylvania. Clinton is not particularly strong in any of the three. Martin Heinrich is not particularly going to help her in any of three. I think Bush would probably defeat Clinton in Virginia but that's up in the air.

I like that you're not only reading this but analyzing it as well. It makes me very happy to see someone enjoying my work. You'll see what happens shortly. I don't want to give anything away.

No 50 state sweep junk TL

Thanks, I guess. Though I've seen some fantastic landslide TLs here.

Looks good!

Thanks!

[Emperor Charles V]

It's 9:30 and we can project that Jeb Bush will carry his home state of Florida where he served for eight years as governor.



Florida President: Jeb Bush (R)

Though it is a swing state, Jeb Bush being the Sunshine State's former popular governor had an advantage over Clinton which paid off as its 27 big electoral votes will go in his column. With the call of Florida for Bush, Republicans breathe a sigh of relief as it otherwise would've been impossible for the GOP to win back the White House tonight. Like North Carolina, Clinton didn't need Florida as what she is focusing on winning are the important battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Ohio and Virginia. Although two of these states would crown Clinton as President Obama's successor, the headquarters for the Clinton campaign is confident that the former Secretary of State, Senator and First Lady will be victorious in all three when the night is through. Only time will tell if they are right.

We can make two senate calls as well.

Previously Uncalled Senate Races

Arizona Senate: David Schweikert (R); John McCain (R-inc) retiring
Florida Senate: Marco Rubio (R-inc)

Just as we can call Florida for it's "favorite son" Bush, we can also project that Marco Rubio will win re-election to a second term defeating congresswoman Kathy Castor. It was a hard fought race, but Rubio has had the edge from day one and interestingly enough, he has won by almost the exact same margin as Bush by just under four points. In Arizona, we can project that the Republicans will hold the Senate seat vacated by the retiring John McCain, the party's presidential nominee in 2008, with congressman David Schweikert defeating congresswoman Kyrsten Sinema.

As for House races we can project:

AZ-02: Martha McSally (R-inc)
GA-12: Rick Allen (R-inc)
NE-02: Chip Maxwell (R)
NY-01: Lee Zeldin (R-inc)
NY-11: Michael Grimm (R-inc)
NY-18: Sean Patrick Maloney (D-inc)
TX-23: Will Hurd (R-inc)

Martha McSally who won by the slimmest of margins in 2014 will win re-election defeating Democratic challenger Victoria Steele who had several campaign and fundraising errors and was viewed as being too liberal for the moderate district. Rick Allen and Will Hurd will win re-matches against John Barrow and Pete Gallego respectively, Democratic incumbents whom they ousted in the 2024 Republican wave. In New York, Long Island Republican Lee Zeldin will win re-election defeating county legislator Sarah Anker. Zeldin notably is currently the only Jewish Republican in congress. Controversial Staten Island congressman Michael Grimm will also win re-election defeating Ken Mitchell, a former city-councilman and the executive director of the Staten Island Zoo. In the Hudson valley, Sean Patrick Maloney wins his third consecutive rematch against one term congresswoman Nan Hayworth. The only pickup is in the Omaha based second district of Nebraska where freshman Democratic incumbent Brad Ashford will lose re-election to Chip Maxwell, his Republican challenger.

After Bush's win in Florida, here is the electoral map:

fmr. Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) / Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) - 214 EV
fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) - 139 EV

Bush has broken the 200 Electoral vote threshold and already has more than Romney received in 2012. Just under sixty votes will be enough to send the third member of the Bush "dynasty" to the White House. However, with all three major battlegrounds up in the air, it is still anybody's race.

Who will win? As always, stay tuned and we will, find out!

[heatmaster]

I see New Hampshire going Bush's way, Colorado will likely be a possible Bush pick up, due to Rand Paul's presence on the ticket, that gets him to 227, then Hillary takes Pennsylvania, Ohio likely goes to Bush, he's now at 245

[Emperor Charles V]

I see New Hampshire going Bush's way, Colorado will likely be a possible Bush pick up, due to Rand Paul's presence on the ticket, that gets him to 227, then Hillary takes Pennsylvania, Ohio likely goes to Bush, he's now at 245

Good predictions. Stay tuned to see of you're right!

[Emperor Charles V]

The time is now 10 PM EST and the polls have closed in six additional states. We can project:

Idaho

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Senate: Raul Labrador (R); Mike Crapo (R-inc) defeated in primary

Iowa

President: Too close to call
Senate: Too close to call
IA-01: Too close to call
IA-03: Too close to call

Montana

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Governor: Too close to call

Nevada

President: Too close to call
Senate: Too close to call
NV-03: Joe Heck (R-inc)
NV-04: John Jay Lee (D) def. Cresent Hardy (R-inc)

North Dakota

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Governor: Jack Dalrymple (R-inc)
Senate: John Hoeven (R-inc)

Utah

President: Jeb Bush (R)
Governor: Gary Herbert (R-inc)
UT-04: Mia Love (R-inc)

Previously Uncalled Senate Races

Wisconsin Senate: Russ Feingold (D) def. Ron Johnson (R-inc)

Previously Uncalled House Races

AZ-01: Gary Kiehne (R) def. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-inc)
NY-24: John Katko (R-inc)
AR-02: French Hill (R-inc)

In Wisconsin, Ron Johnson becomes the second senator to lose re-election tonight as he is projected to lose his rematch with former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold, the man he unseated six years ago. Feingold's victory is a triumph for progressives as Clinton's status in the presidential race remains uncertain. The Senator who has been elected to his fourth non-consecutive term in the upper chamber is remembered for being the only senator to vote against the initial draft of the Patriot Act as well as a crusader for campaign finance reform. Although, Feingold has defeated Johnson, the presidential race in Wisconsin remains too close to call with Clinton leading.

 

After a six-year absence, former Senator Russ Feingold (D-WI) returns to the Senate after winning his re-match with Senator Ron Johnson

In the House two more incumbents have lost re-election: Republican Cresent Hardy in Nevada and Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona. Hardy was elected two years ago upsetting incumbent Steven Horsford. Horsford ran in the Democratic primary this year but was denied a re-match with Hardy by North Las Vegas Mayor John Jay Lee. Lee, a conservative Democrat with an endorsement from the Blue Dog coalition campaigned toward the center saying that Horsford, a former member of Congressional Progressive Caucus, was too far to the left to represent the district, and Hardy, a Tea Party member is too far to the right. After defeating Horsford in the primary Lee, soundly unseated Hardy in the general. Kirkpatrick who survived the 2014 Republican wave against state House Speaker Andy Tobin falls victim to her challenger Gary Kiehne, a rancher who took advantage of the district's Republican lean and his political outsider image. With Kirkpatrick's loss, the only congressional race that remains too close to call in Arizona is the battle for the ninth district vacated by failed Senate candidate Kyrsten Sinema where Tempe mayor Mark Mitchell, a Democrat, and retired NFL quarterback Andrew Walter, a Republican are fighting it out.

Two congressional Republicans in tough re-election battles have been re-elected, John Katko in upstate New York and French Hill in Arkansas. John Katko though representing a Democratic leaning district is fairly popular with his constituents and capitalizing on his moderate and bipartisan record defeated his Democratic challenger Syracuse City Councilman Jake Barrett though was unable to replicate his twenty-point landslide victory over then-incumbent Dan Maffei in 2014. Unpopular freshman Tea Party incumbent French Hill faced a top tier Democratic challenger in former Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter in his central Arkansas district. Halter had hoped to pull off a victory being helped by his name recognition, Hill's polarizing image and Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket but in the end, Halter's progressivism in the conservative state and district is what does him in as he fails in his attempt to unseat Hill.  

As of 10:00 PM EST, here is the electoral map:

fmr. Governor Jeb Bush (R-FL) / Senator Rand Paul (R-KY) - 232 EV
fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-NY) / Senator Martin Heinrich (D-NM) - 139 EV

Bush is just under forty electoral votes away from victory. But don't let these numbers fool you as the three states that are really deciding this election, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia are all uncalled and Clinton might as well sweep all of these states. What will happen? Stay tuned to find out as this night is getting more intense!

[Free Bird]

YEEEAH FEINGOLD

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

How did a conservative Democrat beat a young minority progressive former Congressman in a majority-minority district with Presidential level turnout in Nevada?

[Emperor Charles V]

How did a conservative Democrat beat a young minority progressive former Congressman in a majority-minority district with Presidential level turnout in Nevada?

Good question. The Nevada primaries in 2016 did not have presidential turnout. In fact the turnout was very depressing (even more so than midterm turnout causing many minorities to stay home) as there simply were no exciting primaries. Hillary Clinton ran practically unopposed for the nomination. Her only major (even that's a stretch) competition was Bernie Sanders (running to the left of her he won only Vermont and D.C.) and Jim Webb (running to the right of her he won only Oklahoma). And for the Senate, Reid ran unopposed for the nomination, so really the only primary in NV-04 was for Congress and seriously, not that many people were bothered to go to the polls just to vote in a congressional primary. Due to this, the turnout was overwhelmingly old and white and rural Nevada has a lot of registered (conservative) Democrats who vote Republican for president, and along with older Hispanics (who were appealed by Lee's social conservatism), they helped put Lee over the edge.