How would you currently rate the odds that Jeb Bush runs?

[ShadowRocket]

Inspired by the Hillary threads from awhile back asking the same question. Jeb seems like the candidate who is hardest to predict whether or not he'll actually run.

I'm guessing a 40-50% chance. I think he is slightly more likely not to run.

[TDAS04]

I would say maybe 30-40% chance, but I agree it's hard to predict with him.

[Bull Moose Base]

About 80. He's been making moves.

[The Other Castro]

51%

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Voted 50% because it seems to be a coin flip, to anyone who can't read his mind. If he runs, he'll have no problem with money, name recognition or basic groundwork. It comes down to "does he want to?" And only he (and those closest to him) can answer that.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

40%. He seems to love the idea of running, but no way to know for sure, and parts of his family seem terrified of the idea.

[BlueSwan]

More likely that he'll run than he won't. Now is his chance. I'll say around 70%.

[NHI]

I'd say it's a done deal. He's running.

[Roemerista]

80% He's always wanted the job, and frankly doesn't have that much to lose. Even his brother has been working on rebuilding his image after 5 years of being out of sight.

[Mister Mets]

75%.

He's doing all the things he'd need to do for an early 2015 entrance, and has been active in the so-called invisible primary.

[Frodo]

He'll run -I originally voted thinking there's a 50-60% likelihood, but I am now willing to up the odds to 90 to 100%:

Jeb Bush sending signals that he may be getting ready for 2016 presidential run

By Philip Rucker and Matea Gold
December 12, 2014

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[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I'm revising my outlook to an 80% chance of him running.

[Flake]

75%

[IceSpear]

He'll run -I originally voted thinking there's a 50-60% likelihood, but I am now willing to up the odds to 90 to 100%:

Jeb Bush sending signals that he may be getting ready for 2016 presidential run

By Philip Rucker and Matea Gold
December 12, 2014

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Looks like the donors may be getting tired of Jeb's "will he or won't he" schtick.

[BaconBacon96]

In light of what's happened in the last couple of days, I'm revising my guess from 50% up to 90%.

[Mister Mets]

I don't see a guy who hasn't held elected office in eight years releasing emails unless he's going to do something big.

[CLARENCE 2015!]

I believe he will not run but who knows........he is mighty popular down here in FLORIDA....still a very important state for electing the next President. Hillary has my vote but cant say I am in the majority....

[ShadowRocket]

Yeah, I'm thinking he is alot more likely to run in light of some of the recent news than I was when I posted the poll.

[Pandaguineapig]

Outside of health issues or scandal he's in

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He feels the other G O P challengers have ethics issues, even Mitt Romney.  But, Jeb have the nepotism name and the Torture challenges from his brothers administration.  

Hillary is leading all G O P challengers, with a favorable congressional map, it is very challenging for any of the G O P challengers to win. That's why Mitt is such credible in the G O P ranks, he  is already battle tested from 12.

Rank 40-50%.

[Likely Voter]

Originally I said 40% but now I say 80%. Today on Bloomberg Dan Senor (who knows Bush) says that Bush is 'my sense is that he has made the decision to run and he is testing the waters,' notably with the donor class. He said Bush could have a 'first mover advantage' with donors and that is what the email list release was about to hold off people from committing to Christie.
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/videos/2014-12-15/dan-senor-says-jeb-bush-emails-like-everybody