What sized loss would be equally shocking to a Landrieu win?
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  What sized loss would be equally shocking to a Landrieu win?		 « previous next »
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Poll
Question: What magnitude loss for Landrieu would be equivalent in shock value to a win?
#1
0-10 points		  
#2
10-15 points		  
#3
15-20 points		  
#4
20-25 points		  
#5
25-30 points		  
#6
30-35 points		  
#7
35-40 points		  
#8
40 points or more		  
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Author Topic: What sized loss would be equally shocking to a Landrieu win?  (Read 1327 times)
Nichlemn
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« on: December 06, 2014, 06:06:45 AM »
What's a margin that Landrieu could lose by that would shock you as much as if she won?

There's a couple of ways to approach this. One is the "statistical" approach. Let's take 538's probability a 99.8% chance of a Cassidy win as given, that's the "left tail" of events. What is the equivalent point on the "right tail", which Landrieu has a 99.8% chance of exceeding?

The other is the "emotional" approach. Maybe the "binary" nature of the election means even a massive Cassidy landslide wouldn't necessarily seem as unusual as Landrieu winning, given you expected Cassidy to win anyway. (Less likely, a record-breaking margin for Cassidy might shock you more given how unprecedented it is, even if it wasn't technically as improbable as a Landrieu win might have been).
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #1 on: December 06, 2014, 06:35:35 AM »
Anything worse than Obama's 2012 performance of 40.58% is real bad.
The question is whether she merely gets pryored or whether she gets blanched.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2014, 08:29:45 AM »
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on December 06, 2014, 06:35:35 AM
The question is whether she merely gets pryored or whether she gets blanched.

...a two point difference is really a noteworthy distinction?
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Talleyrand
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« Reply #3 on: December 06, 2014, 09:38:51 AM »
The chances of her winning are pretty similar to the chances of her not breaking 30%. So yeah, if she loses by 40 or more, I'll be shocked.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: December 06, 2014, 01:03:14 PM »
A 2:1 Cassidy win
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politicus
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« Reply #5 on: December 06, 2014, 01:56:52 PM »
If she gets Santorumed.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2014, 02:01:12 PM »
If she doesn't crack 35%
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2014, 05:30:46 PM »
If she loses by the biggest margin of any incumbent senator ever (around 30 points).
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IceSpear
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« Reply #8 on: December 06, 2014, 05:33:55 PM »
Quote from: Keystone Phil on December 06, 2014, 08:29:45 AM
Quote from: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on December 06, 2014, 06:35:35 AM
The question is whether she merely gets pryored or whether she gets blanched.

...a two point difference is really a noteworthy distinction?

Yeah, it seems the real suspense is if she gets Blanched or Thompsoned.
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Mister Mets
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« Reply #9 on: December 06, 2014, 05:54:31 PM »
To equal the surprise of a Landrieu win, I think there'd have to be a 30+ point loss.

At the moment, I'm kinda expecting a 20 point loss (She got 42 percent in an election with higher turnout, and the media cycle's have been brutal.)

So, a 25 point loss would be as surprising as a single-digit loss.
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Vosem
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« Reply #10 on: December 06, 2014, 05:59:38 PM »
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #11 on: December 06, 2014, 09:45:12 PM »
Interesting bimodal distribution - a lot of people have picked 30-35 and 40+, but none 35-40.
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